As 2017 moves into the stretch run, how many of the SEC bosses will be back next season? We’re not even talking just firings — sometimes the departure is a mutual decision, sometimes a head coach goes all George Jefferson and is “moving on up.” Regardless of the cause, here’s our best guesstimate as to the chance that each SEC boss is in the same spot come Week 1 of the 2018 season.

West

Alabama: 99%

He’s not getting fired. The only way that Saban goes are if he finds a superior job or retires. Retirement would be much more likely, as he does turn 66 years old next week. And of course, there may not be a superior job. Dallas Cowboys, maybe? He’ll be back at Bama.

Arkansas: 15%

The outrage meter is kind of low, despite this being year five for Bielema and him delivering less than any of the other fifth-year guys in the SEC. Still, if Arkansas finishes 4-8 or so, surely the powers that be can’t continue down this path.

Auburn: 95%

There have been times this year when the tires nearly went flat on the Gus Bus. The LSU loss was disappointing, and the failure of the Tigers to assume at least a clear second-place spot in the West is a little worrisome. But unless the wheels fall off completely down the stretch, these two will stick together for another autumn at least.

LSU: 90%

It’s not exactly a secret that some within the LSU community weren’t enamored of the Orgeron hire. He was the interim who made himself indispensable, and with big wins like those against Florida and Auburn, he should be back.  There is the possibility for some kind of late-season blip that would add a little fuel to the fire, but it’s hard to imagine.

Mississippi: 25%

Matt Luke didn’t seem like a long-term solution. But pre-Shea injury, he had done a good job keeping the Ole Miss team from imploding. If he could sneak out six wins and if the NCAA continues to drag its feet, there’s a real chance he’s back next fall. But it probably takes both of those things, and isn’t a certainty anyway. His odds are better than they were in September, though.

Mississippi State: 85%

State isn’t firing Dan Mullen, but he is incredibly upwardly mobile. There have to be some Florida boosters who just want to back up the Brinks truck in Starkville and reclaim Mullen. They’d hardly be the only program that would nab him given the chance.

Texas A&M: 80%

After week one, this was about 0.8%. But Kevin Sumlin’s team has steadily improved with a freshman quarterback and is the only team to actually give Alabama a shadow of a competitive game. Looks like he’s back, which might be the upset of the season.

East

Florida: 20%

There’s a very good chance that either UF decides it’s had enough of McElwain and his questionable death threats and unquestionable offensive death OR that McElwain decides that maybe the thin air of Colorado State was too good to leave, and he returns there. He could even go to some other school. Mutual parting looks increasingly likely, which would save the Gators the cost and hassle of a firing.

Georgia: 99%

Unless Kirby for some odd reason wants another job or stumbles into major NCAA trouble, he’s back next year.

Kentucky: 95%

Kentucky’s situation would get much cloudier if it lost its last six games to finish 5-7. But given the schedule, eight wins are more likely than five. Stoops should be back next season, although Florida State struggling as Kentucky continues to show year-to-year improvement has to made a few Wildcats fans a tiny bit nervous.

Missouri: 50%

If this were any other program or if Odom had even one more year, we’d lean toward projecting him to be gone. As it is, this program is still an absolute train wreck. The rule of thumb seems to be that even most disasters earn three years. Not sure how much better Mizzou will get with another year, but also not sure who would be running to take the job. Flip a coin.

South Carolina: 98%

Here we have a second-year coach who has steadily improved his team and, accordingly, looks likely to remain. Any chance that Muschamp leaves would be based on a move on his part, but he’s probably not such a hot commodity yet that another school would try to nab him.

Tennessee: 0.01%

So you’re telling me there’s a chance? Even if UT were to finish 8-4, it’s hard to imagine a scenario under which Butch Jones is back next fall. And they’re not going to finish 8-4. More likely 4-8.

Vanderbilt: 90%

If Vandy comes up shy of a bowl bid, there will be a little dissatisfaction with Derek Mason, as the Commodores have failed to capitalize on a weak East and a veteran-laden team in 2017. Still, it’s likely that he’s the man next season.