Let me stop you right there.

You read that headline about Texas checking the most boxes of any Playoff team and thought, “well, I see SDS is already pivoting to treating the Longhorns like an SEC team …”

Ya know what? You’re sort of right, reader of this column.

Even though my salary is totally independent of whether Texas wins a national championship or pukes on its shoes in September as it did throughout the 2010s, I’ll say this: If you didn’t know any better, you’d think that the migration to the SEC had already begun.

The Longhorns don’t just walk, talk and act like an SEC team. They walk, talk and act like future national champions.

That doesn’t mean they’ll win it all. There are plenty of things that can get in the way of that, most immediately a Washington team that has won 20 consecutive games since Oct. 8, 2022. And for what it’s worth, this is by no means a prediction that the Longhorns are destined to win it all.

But in terms of checking the boxes of a future national champion, you’d better believe that Texas looks the part.

Let me stop you again.

You read that sentence about Texas checking the boxes of future national champion and thought, “but what about the fact that Steve Sarkisian has never been on this stage.”

Ya know what? You’re sort of right, reader of this column.

It’s true that the most significant bowl game that Sarkisian was a head coach for wasn’t even a New Year’s 6 bowl. Shoot, the last time that Sarkisian celebrated a bowl victory as a head coach was in 2014 when he led USC to an unforgettable 45-42 Holiday Bowl victory against Nebraska.

You’re also sort of wrong, reader of this column, who might also be forgetting that Ed Orgeron won a national title in his first and only Playoff appearance with LSU in 2019.

Sarkisian was on this stage with total autonomy of Alabama’s offense a short 3 years ago. Ohio State had extra time to prepare for DeVonta Smith, AKA the first receiver to win the Heisman Trophy in 29 years. What did Sarkisian do with Smith? Did he turn him into a decoy with Ohio State putting all of its attention on him? Nope. Sarkisian schemed so well that all Smith did was break BCS/Playoff national championship records for catches (12) and receiving touchdowns (3). Oh, and that, along with the 215 receiving yards, all came in the first half.

We remember how dominant Alabama’s offense was in that 52-24 win, but we forget that Sarkisian had Ohio State so perplexed that it yielded one of the most lopsided coverage matchups we’ve ever seen on a national championship stage:

Yes, Sarkisian had a ridiculous amount of talent to work with on that 2020 Alabama team. It had more talent than his 2023 Texas roster, but not by an overwhelming margin.

That brings us to the next “future national champion” box that Texas checks — roster talent.

Since the 247sports talent composite rankings began in 2015, every national championship winner has ranked inside the top 10. Texas sits at No. 6.

Teams that rank outside the top 10 in the talent composite are 2-10 in Playoff games. Those lone 2 victories came against teams that were also outside the top 10 in talent composite (2022 TCU-Michigan and 2015 Clemson-Oklahoma). That means in the 8 years of the talent composite rankings, no team outside the top 10 beat a team that was ranked inside the top 10. Hence, why undefeated Washington (No. 26 in talent composite) is a 4.5-point underdog against a 1-loss Texas team.

(That’s also not the best sign for a Michigan team that ranks No. 14 in the talent composite.)

Of course, it’s not as if the Longhorns suddenly have some massive influx of talent. They’ve been in the top 10 of the talent composite rankings in 5 of the past 6 seasons, and the lone exception was in Sarkisian’s first season … when the Longhorns were No. 11.

But the more talented team is 13-3 in semifinal games. Something about having a month to prepare/get healthy might have something to do with that.

Another key box to check? A high-powered offense.

These typically aren’t low-scoring games. Of the 27 Playoff games, 23 of the winners scored at least 30 points. All 9 national championship winners averaged at least 35 points per game; Texas averaged 36. All 9 of the Playoff winners averaged at least 5.89 yards/play; Texas averaged 6.65 yards/play.

While having a first-round NFL quarterback isn’t a prerequisite — Cardale Jones, Jake Coker and Stetson Bennett IV accounted for 4 titles in the Playoff era — having NFL talent at receiver is. Here are pass-catchers from the national champs in the Playoff era who were selected (not necessarily in the same year) in rounds 1-2 of the NFL Draft:

  • 2014 Ohio State
    • Devin Smith, 2nd round, No. 37 overall
    • Michael Thomas, 2nd round, No. 47 overall
  • 2015 Alabama
    • OJ Howard, 1st round, No. 19 overall
    • Calvin Ridley, 1st round, No. 26 overall
  • 2016 Clemson
    • Mike Williams, 1st round, No. 7 overall
  • 2017 Alabama
    • DeVonta Smith, 1st round, No. 10 overall
    • Henry Ruggs, 1st round, No. 12 overall
    • Jerry Jeudy, 1st round, No. 15 overall
    • Calvin Ridley, 1st round, No. 26 overall
  • 2018 Clemson
    • Tee Higgins, 2nd round, No. 33 overall
  • 2019 LSU
    • Ja’Marr Chase, 1st round, No. 5 overall
    • Justin Jefferson, 1st round, No. 22 overall
    • Terrace Marshall Jr., 2nd round, No. 59 overall
  • 2020 Alabama
    • Jaylen Waddle, 1st round, No. 6 overall
    • DeVonta Smith, 1st round, No. 10 overall
    • John Metchie III, 2nd round, No. 44 overall
  • 2021 Georgia
    • Brock Bowers, No. 5 overall on Mel Kiper’s 2024 Big Board
    • George Pickens, 2nd round, No. 52 overall
    • AD Mitchell, No. 24 overall in the PFF 2024 Mock Draft
  • 2022 Georgia
    • Brock Bowers, No. 5 overall on Mel Kiper’s 2024 Big Board
    • AD Mitchell, No. 24 overall in the PFF 2024 Mock Draft

Kiper has Texas receivers Xavier Worthy and Mitchell, the former Georgia transfer/Playoff hero, among his top 7 at the position in the 2024 NFL Draft. You can find mock drafts with both players coming off the board in Round 1 (PFF has Mitchell going No. 24 overall).

Washington might be the only other Playoff team with a blue-chip pass-catcher prospect (Rome Odunze) on the roster. Neither Michigan nor Alabama has that.

On the other side of the ball, defensive efficiency is paramount for title winners during the Playoff era. Here’s where each Playoff champ ranked in FBS in yards/play allowed:

  • 2014 Ohio State — No. 25
  • 2015 Alabama — No. 2
  • 2016 Clemson — No. 5
  • 2017 Alabama — No. 1
  • 2018 Clemson — No. 2
  • 2019 LSU — No. 29
  • 2020 Alabama — No. 20
  • 2021 Georgia — No. 2
  • 2022 Georgia — No. 15

Texas is at No. 27 in FBS at 5.04 yards/play allowed. The 2019 LSU squad had the worst defensive efficiency for a Playoff champ, and it allowed 5.11 yards/play.

Not every champ has to be as defensively dominant as 2021 Georgia or 2017 Alabama. Sure, it helps. But being a reliable unit that avoids getting gashed by the big play is key. If you get bludgeoned to death by the run, chances are, your team isn’t winning a title. No Playoff champ has been worse than 2014 Ohio State’s 3.95 yards/carry allowed, though it’s worth noting that in the Buckeyes’ final 4 games, they allowed just 3.5 yards/carry.

What’s Texas, you ask? No. 5 in FBS with just 2.87 yards/carry allowed (Washington is No. 77 at 4.26 yards/carry allowed).

Consider that another box checked.

You’ll notice that at no point have I referenced the fact that Texas checks a national champ box because of its history. I don’t care about Texas being No. 4 on the all-time wins list, nor do I believe it matters that the Longhorns have won 4 national championships in their history. Last I checked, the Longhorns have 1 post-integration national title and it happened before the vast majority of its current roster was potty-trained.

Texas won’t win or lose a national championship based on those factors. That makes for interesting storylines, as does the whole “is Texas back” thing, but there are other more important variables in making that a reality.

The reality is the Longhorns have been desperate to field a team like this since it walked off the field as a runner-up to Alabama at the end of the 2009 season. There have been premature declarations of Texas’ return, but none of those teams were this close to college football immortality.

I don’t know if that means a title is imminent, but whether you can admit it or not, you probably thought “man, you make a lot of fair points.”

You’re absolutely right, reader of this column.