It’s an arbitrary number, but in college football, 3,000 passing yards is still somewhat of a gold standard for a productive air attack. We’re looking at the SEC schools, seeing how many 3,000-yard passers they’ve seen, who did it last, and what chance they have for such a season in 2017. Here we go, listed from most likely to least likely.

Arkansas

3K seasons: 6

Last one: Austin Allen, 2016

Chance of seeing it in ’17: 95 percent. Allen threw for 3,430 yards last year. With no Rawleigh Williams III and a need to have some shootouts, he might hit 4,000.

Alabama

3K seasons: 3

Last one: Jake Coker, 2015

Chance of seeing it in ’17: 90 percent. Jalen Hurts had 2,780 last year, and that’s without starting the season opener and being a true freshman. If he’s healthy, he’s got it.

Missouri

3K seasons: 6 (1 in the SEC)

Last one: Drew Lock, 2016

Chance of seeing it in ’17: 85 percent. Lock passed for 3,399 yards last year and would be a shoo-in but for the fact that he has a fair likelihood of getting beat up behind his offensive line. It he’s healthy, this is a 95 percent chance.

Mississippi

3K seasons: 5

Last one: Chad Kelly, 2015

Nov 26, 2016; Oxford, MS, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Shea Patterson (20) moves in the pocket during the second quarter of the game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Chance of seeing it in ’17: 80 percent. Hugh Freeze is responsible for three of the Rebels’ five 3,000-yard seasons, and with Shea Patterson (above) and not much else, a 4,000-yard season is about as likely as a sub-3,000 one.

Georgia

3K seasons: 8

Last one: Aaron Murray, 2013

Chance of seeing it in ’17: 70 percent. Jacob Eason has the skill set. His chances would be even higher, but with UGA’s talent at running back, and the likelihood that they’ll play from ahead for much of the season, he could well end up just short. But if he’s healthy, he’s a good pick for the 3K club.

South Carolina

3K seasons: 5

Last one: Dylan Thompson, 2014

Chance of seeing it in ’17: 35 percent. Jake Bentley is one of the tougher calls. He’s a talented young passer, but Will Muschamp is a defensive tactician who isn’t going to make anybody forget Steve Spurrier. Bentley wouldn’t surprise if he does or doesn’t reach the mark.

Auburn

3K seasons: 1

Last one: Dameyune Craig, 1997

Chance of seeing it in ’17: 20 percent. With Jarrett Stidham, there is a puncher’s chance, but there’s a reason it has only happened one time in Auburn history. The Tigers will run, play D, and probably throw for less than 3,000 yards.

Mississippi State

3K seasons: 2

Last one: Dak Prescott, 2015

Chance of seeing it in ’17: 15 percent. Nick Fitzgerald will easily crush 3,000 total yards, what with his 1,385 rushing yards in 2016. But unless State’s passing game is much sharper, he’s not going to bomb away enough to approach 3,000 yards. There’s a shot, but a more likely possibility is 4,000 total yards.

Texas A&M

3K seasons: 4 (2 in the SEC)

Last one: Johnny Manziel, 2013

Chance of seeing it in ’17: 15 percent. On the face of it, there’s plenty of reasons you won’t see it. An uncertain QB situation, having Trayveon Williams in the backfield, and the possibility of relying on a true freshman passer. But Kevin Sumlin’s teams do throw the ball well, so there is a chance.

Florida

3K seasons: 8

Last one: Tim Tebow, 2007

Chance of seeing it in ’17: 5 percent. Not happening. There’s a reason it hasn’t happened since Tebow. Florida is in an uncertain QB situation, has a poor line, and has gotten their last couple starting QBs too beaten up to consider 3,000 yards. Maybe Feleipe Franks will explode, but I wouldn’t set my watch by it.

Kentucky

3K seasons: 7

Last one: Mike Hartline, 2010

Chance of seeing it in ’17: 5 percent. Stephen Johnson is a dual-threat guy and probably won’t put enough passes in the air to get above 2,500 yards. He has an excellent chance to end up with 3,000 total yards, but UK will keep it on the ground again in ’17.

LSU

3K seasons: 3

Last one: Zach Mettenberger, 2013

Chance of seeing it in ’17: 5 percent. This would be a surprise. Danny Etling is serviceable, but hardly the sort of player who is likely to pass for gaudy stats, particularly with Derrius Guice in the backfield.

Tennessee

3K seasons: 4

Last one: Tyler Bray, 2012

Chance of seeing it in ’17: 5 percent. Not happening. Could have a QB time split, have a coach who loves the run-pass option, and will likely be trying to grind with the run game a fair bit.

Vanderbilt

3K seasons: 2

Last one: Jay Cutler, 2005

Chance of seeing it in ’17: 5 percent. Kyle Shurmur passed for 2,409 yards last season, but he has only the vaguest of shots at reaching 3,000 yards. Vandy will base their offense around Ralph Webb and Shurmur will do a lot of handing off.