Previewing and predicting every SEC team's first-round game in the NCAA Tournament

It’s been two long years, but the NCAA Tournament begins again in earnest Friday afternoon and all eyes in the sports world will once again be fixed on March Madness.

It’s one of the greatest sporting events in the world, and while the bubble approach will make it feel different this March, let’s all pause to remember that the approach was adopted this autumn out of necessity, and let’s appreciate, for a moment, the astonishing feat of pulling off this tournament in the face of a global pandemic.

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The fact that as of Thursday morning, not a single team in the field of 68 has had to withdraw due to COVID-19 redeems the NCAA’s risk-averse approach — and let’s face it, there are worse places to hold the holy grail of basketball tournaments than in gyms and arenas towering over the cornfields and grain warehouses of basketball mad Indiana.

The SEC has 6 teams in the NCAA field, a testament to the strength of a league that ended up being much better than it appeared to be during his year’s COVID-compressed nonconference slate. The SEC storylines are, to a team, intriguing, from SEC champion Alabama’s quest for the program’s first Final Four berth to Will Wade’s dangerous 8 seed LSU to Arkansas’s best hope for a second weekend this century and other stories in between.

But it all starts Friday, and SDS is here to break down every first-round SEC matchup (based on order of play).

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FRIDAY

South Region: (10) Virginia Tech vs. (7) Florida, 12:15 p.m. (CBS)

Key matchup: Florida’s Colin Castleton, C (12 ppg, 5.9 rebounds, 2.2 blocks) vs. Virginia Tech’s Keve Aluma, F (15.6 ppg, 8.0 rebounds, 1.3 blocks)

The skinny: Florida is a really good story. Florida overcame the trauma and tragedy of preseason All-American and SEC preseason Player of the Year Keyontae Johnson nearly dying on the floor at rival FSU in December to make the NCAA Tournament anyway, fighting through three COVID pauses along the way. Many teams facing that type of adversity would have crumbled: the Gators collected 5 Quad 1 wins and were never at risk of missing the tournament after a SEC-Big 12 challenge win over a top-10 West Virginia.

That said, this is a tough matchup for the Gators and you can see why it is a popular upset pick.

The Hokies are very good at limiting second-chance points, which is key against Florida’s outstanding offensive rebounder Colin Castleton. They also run excellent offense, and feature two marvelous straight line drivers in forward Justyn Mutts (9.5 ppg, 6.5 rebounds) and guard Tyrece Radford (12 ppg, 6.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists), who was reinstated after being found guilty of drunken driving and concealed weapons charges just over a month ago. The Hokies don’t shoot it great from deep, but they might not have to against a Florida team that has struggled all year to keep people in front of them.

The Hokies have struggled at times against teams with long, tall bigs, and Castleton could get the best of Keve Aluma, a versatile but undersized forward who leads the Hokies in scoring. But even if the Gators get a big game from Castleton, Florida will need a massive game out of blossoming star guard Tre Mann, who will be the best player on the floor, to win.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 70, Florida 65

South Region: (3) Arkansas vs. (14) Colgate, 12:45 p.m. (TRU TV)

Key matchup: Colgate’s Jordan Burns, Guard (17 ppg, 5.4 assists, 1.6 steals) vs. Arkansas’ Moses Moody, Guard (17.4 ppg, 5.9 rebounds, 1.1 steals)

The skinny: The Raiders are old and really good. They shoot the ball extremely well- even when guarded, they hit 42.6% of their shots, a huge number and they really limit turnovers (10.1 per game). Their best player, senior guard Jordan Burns, is one of the best college basketball players you’ve never heard about and he’ll not have his career end without a dogfight.

That said, the Raiders weren’t able to play nonconference games due to Patriot League scheduling rules, and they’ve never seen a team as athletic and balanced as Arkansas. Moses Moody, playing likely his last college games after a magnificent season, is a bigger, stronger version of Burns — and the list of these comparisons goes down the line, from 6-6 sniper Jalen Tate to glue guy extraordinaire Justin Smith, the Indiana transfer who has added poise and toughness to an Arkansas team that lacked it last season. The Hogs are just too good.

Prediction: Arkansas 88, Colgate 73

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Midwest Region: (12) Oregon State vs. (5) Tennessee, 4:30 p.m. (TNT)

Key matchup: Oregon State’s Ethan Thompson, Guard (15.3 ppg, 3.6 rebounds per game, 3.9 assists per game) vs. Tennessee’s Jaden Springer, Guard (12.5 ppg, 3.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists per game)

The skinny: The Beavers are one of this tournament’s bid thieves after a wild run through the Pac-12 Tournament that saw them beat three NCAA Tournament teams (UCLA, Oregon and Colorado) in three days. The key to the first two games of that run was Ethan Thompson, who had 17 points per game, 6 rebounds per night and 4.5 assists per in the wins over UCLA and Oregon. But the Beavers aren’t a one-man show: When Thompson went cold against Colorado, Oregon State got 29 points from its bench, including 15 from big man Maurice Calloo, who could have similar production if John Fulkerson can’t go after being injured by Omar Payne’s reckless elbow in the SEC quarterfinals.

Oregon State is hot, but give me talent and defense in March. The Vols have two likely first-round draft picks in Springer and Johnson and while Tennessee struggles to score at times, the Beavers don’t really lock anyone up (117th in KenPom defensive efficiency). They won the Pac 12 Tournament with offense, and that comes at a premium against Tennessee, who enters March ranked 4th nationally in defensive efficiency.

Prediction: Tennessee 70, Oregon State 61

SATURDAY

East Region: (9) St. Bonaventure vs. (8) LSU, 1:45 p.m. (TNT)

Key matchup: St. Bonaventure’s backcourt of Kyle Lofton and Jaren Holmes (combined 28.2 ppg, 9 rebounds, 7.5 assists) vs. LSU’s backcourt of Cam Thomas and Javonte Smart (combined 38.5 ppg, 6.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists)

The skinny: One of the better matchups in the first round from a styles make fights perspective.

St. Bonaventure is a balanced veteran team that defends at a really high level (17th in KenPom defensive efficiency). Offensively, they are paced by the upperclassman guard duo of Lofton and Holmes, who take care of the ball and play with great understanding of Mark Schmidt’s high ball screen dominant system (similar to what Mike White does at Florida that gives Will Wade teams fits). Holmes is a lethal shooter at almost 40% on high volume, and when he misses, Jalen Adaway is a 6-6 wing who can really crash the glass. The Bonnies’ defensive numbers are probably a little inflated from the COVID limitations on nonconference games, however, and LSU will be the most athletic team they’ve played this season. The Bonnies were 1-1 against Saint Louis, a bubble team that nipped LSU early in the season, and that should give them some confidence. But the Tigers are such an explosive offensive team (5th nationally in offensive efficiency) that they can survive this game, so long as they control the glass when they do force misses.

Prediction: LSU 77, St. Bonaventure 75

East Region: (2) Alabama vs. (15) Iona, 4 p.m. (TBS)

Key matchup: Rick Pitino’s film study vs. Nate Oats’ system

The skinny: One of the bigger mismatches in the NCAA’s round of 64, the game has appeal because it marks the return of Rick Pitino to the NCAA Tournament. Pitino will have the Gaels prepared, and Iona is actually terrific at defending one Bama strength: straight line drives (Iona is 18th in the nation at defending isolation drives!). But the Tide have multiple future pros, average 11 made 3-pointers a night, and defend so well (2nd in KenPom defensive efficiency) that even if Pitino’s methodical team controls tempo, the Tide will produce stops and win handily.

Prediction: Alabama 85, Iona 57

West Region: (8) Oklahoma vs. (9) Missouri, 7:25 p.m. (TNT)

Key matchup: Oklahoma’s Austin Reaves, Guard (17.5 ppg, 5.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists) vs. Missouri’s Dru Smith, Guard (14.1 ppg, 2.1 steals, 4 assists)

The skinny: A fascinating game between two teams that spent time in the Top 10 this season but finished the year unranked and feeling underappreciated.

Missouri was a consensus 7 seed in BracketMatrix, the bracketology aggregator, and the 9 seed the Tigers received — in No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga’s region no less — makes no sense. While Mizzou’s fan base will gripe, my guess is a senior-laden Missouri team simply went back to work. They have beaten so many good teams this season, including 1 seed Illinois and 2 seed Alabama, that they know they can win this game against a Sooners team that really struggled down the stretch, losing 5 of their final 6 games.

Austin Reaves can score, but his strength is attacking the basket, which is Dru Smith’s strength as a defender. Missouri is excellent at funneling things towards Jeremiah Tilmon inside, and if the big fella can stay out of foul trouble and on the floor, the Tigers can at least slow Reaves. That’s the key too, because Oklahoma’s second-leading scorer, De’Vion Harmon, is out of the game due to COVID protocol.

The sleeper in this game might be Brady Manek, who looks like he’s from French Lick, Indiana, and is a matchup problem for the Tigers as a stretch four (just look at how Trendon Watford crushed Mizzou earlier this month). If Manek hits shots early — and he will take them — it could unbalance Missouri’s inside defense and open things up for the Sooners. But it’s better to make Manek beat you than allow Reaves too.

This will be a marvelous basketball game.

Prediction: Missouri 75, Oklahoma 71

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