The 2021 NFL Draft will take place Thursday, Friday and Saturday in Cleveland, with Round 1 being held on Thursday night.

The SEC figures to dominate the first 32 picks, so I (newsletter editor Adam Spencer) got together with national columnist Connor O’Gara to take our yearly stab at predicting how Round 1 will play out.

Connor got pick 1 (a no-brainer), and I got pick 2 (another no-brainer, seemingly), and then we alternated back and forth from there.

We’re clearly SEC homers, as we chose 15 SEC players to go in the first round. That’s more than any other mock draft I can recall seeing in recent months.

Also, Connor is a big-time Big Ten homer, too. Of the 7 B1G players we project to go in Round 1 below, Connor ended up picking all of them. Every single one. Incredible.

Anyway, we feel pretty confident we nailed the first pick. From that point on, who knows? Here’s how we think Round 1 will play out on Thursday night:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevor Lawrence, QB (Clemson)

The only way this doesn’t happen is if Urban announces he’s retiring before the draft and we find out Tom Coughlin is taking over the franchise. And even then, Lawrence is still most likely the guy. (Connor O’Gara)

2. New York Jets — Zach Wilson, QB (BYU)

Wilson seems to be the way the Jets are leaning, though I take nothing for granted in the buildup to a draft. One thing is for sure — they’ll take a QB here after trading Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers. Wilson has the big-play potential that the Jets have been lacking in recent years. Last year, the Jets landed OT Mekhi Becton in Round 1, and he looks like a long-term solution at tackle. Now, they need to grab a dynamic QB for Becton to protect. (Adam Spencer)

3. San Francisco 49ers — Mac Jones, QB (Alabama)

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. If Kyle Shanahan sees a path to the Super Bowl with Jones in it, yes, it makes sense that he’s willing to go get him that high. The way he processes and reads coverages makes Jones an ideal fit with Shanahan, even though the physical ability isn’t on par with any of the 4 other top-5 quarterbacks. I think it’s Jones and not Lance, who got an additional pro day in front of the 49ers. Shanahan gets his guy at No. 3, and the Jones haters come out in full force. (CO)

4. Atlanta Falcons — Kyle Pitts, TE (Florida)

The Falcons are in an interesting spot. Do they think they can compete in the last few years of Matt Ryan’s career? Or, are they ready to pull the trigger on a guy they want to groom as their next franchise QB? I think they’ll make another run with Ryan under center, so snagging Pitts here is a great idea. Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst and Kyle Pitts? That’s an intimidating group of pass catchers. (AS)

5. Denver Broncos (PROJECTED TRADE with Bengals) — Justin Fields, QB (Ohio State)

This would really start the fun. For the Bengals, trading this pick to Denver would essentially mean punting on Ja’Marr Chase, which would be tough. But I’m guessing the Broncos would sell the farm to move up to 5 to get Fields. The Broncos have a win-now group of offensive skill players, and as much as Adam won’t want to admit it, it doesn’t appear Drew Lock is the long-term guy in Denver. That’s what the Matthew Stafford/Deshaun Watson interest suggested. The Broncos get Fields and instantly become more dangerous in the AFC West. (CO)

6. Miami Dolphins — Ja’Marr Chase, WR (LSU)

The Dolphins are thrilled to have their pick of the wide receivers here. It’ll be tempting for them to pair Tua Tagovailoa with one of his former Alabama guys, but Chase is the most complete receiver prospect in this class. He can line up anywhere on the field and get open. He’s the smart pick at this spot. (AS)

7. Detroit Lions — DeVonta Smith, WR (Alabama)

It pains me to think there’s a world in which Smith could waste away in Detroit. But then I think, hey, we witnessed a world in which Calvin Johnson still became a Hall of Fame receiver. Smith would be a nice fit alongside newly acquired Jared Goff, who has been known to lock in 1 target and struggle when plays break down. Who better to do that with than Smith?  (CO)

8. Carolina Panthers — Penei Sewell, OL (Oregon)

The Panthers could be intrigued by Trey Lance here, but the chance to land an elite tackle in Sewell will be too good to pass up. As mentioned, the Panthers now have Sam Darnold, along with last year’s starter Teddy Bridgewater. Either guy could be a decent fit at QB with the protection Sewell would provide. (AS)

9. Cincinnati Bengals (PROJECTED TRADE with Broncos) — Rashawn Slater, OL (Northwestern)

Adam just had to take Sewell at No. 8. That blew up my plan a bit, but I think the Bengals would make this trade to get massive value while taking someone like Slater, who might end up being the best offensive lineman in the draft. The Bengals take a ton of heat for not drafting Chase, and understandably so because of the Joe Burrow connection. But Burrow was sacked 32 times in just 10 games last year, and the franchise has moved several pieces around already to improve that area. Drafting Slater, who can play left and right tackle, would give the Bengals the depth up front they desperately need. (CO)

10. Dallas Cowboys — Patrick Surtain II, CB (Alabama)

The Cowboys need help all over their defense. Surtain is, in my opinion, the best, most-NFL ready defensive player on the board. It’s crazy that we haven’t had a defensive player come off the board yet, but at No. 10, it makes sense for the Cowboys. Surtain is a guy who can line up at corner and lock down the opponent’s best receiver for the next decade. (AS)

11. New England Patriots (PROJECTED TRADE with Giants) — Trey Lance, QB (North Dakota State)

Are we having fun yet? Good. In an effort to jump the Eagles from potentially stealing Lance, the Patriots go up and get their quarterback of the future. Unwilling to pay the steep price to get into the top 4, the Patriots’ plan of hopefully landing Jones/Fields/Lance outside of the top 10 is executed perfectly. The 20-year-old Lance gets a year to wait behind Cam Newton. Bill Belichick lets out an evil belly laugh and the world groans at the thought of another elite Patriots quarterback. (CO)

12. Philadelphia Eagles — Jaylen Waddle, WR (Alabama)

I originally tried to pick DeVonta Smith here, but Connor reminded me he took the reigning Heisman winner with Detroit’s No. 7 pick earlier. While I have no doubt that Smith could play for both the Lions and Eagles at the same time and be successful, I’ll instead send the other elite Alabama receiver to the Eagles. Waddle is a great fit for any offense, thanks to his versatility and speed. It’d be fun to pair him with former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts. (AS)

13. Los Angeles Chargers — Micah Parsons, LB (Penn State)

The Chargers could go in a variety of ways. But with the top 2 offensive linemen off the board and not really a pressing need to add skill-player talent around Justin Herbert, they take Parsons, who could easily be the best defensive player in the draft. Paired alongside Kenneth Murray, the versatile Parsons would give the Chargers a high-ceiling game-changer to add to a promising front 7 with Joey Bosa now inked to a long-term deal. (CO)

14. Minnesota Vikings — Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL (USC)

This might be a bit of a reach at 14, as many scouts don’t know if Vera-Tucker is a guard or a tackle at the NFL level. Well, the good news is that the Vikings desperately need help all across their offensive line, so they don’t necessarily care which of the 5 slots Vera-Tucker occupies moving forward. (AS)

15. New York Giants (PROJECTED TRADE with Patriots) — Jaycee Horn, CB (South Carolina)

My favorite corner in the draft is probably the favorite corner of a handful of NFL teams with a need at the position. That, in my opinion, fuels the trade with the Patriots. Getting a physical, dominant cover guy like Horn would be a massive win for the Giants after the way the Deandre Baker pick whiffed in 2019. This would be the first time the Giants traded down in the draft under general manager Dave Gettleman, but dare I say, Gettleman might finally make a move that’s applauded by the New York faithful. (CO)

16. Chicago Bears (PROJECTED TRADE with Cardinals) — Caleb Farley, CB (Virginia Tech)

Da Bears are devastated to see Horn off the board at No. 15. But Connor’s beloved Chicago squad can’t afford to wait around and let all 3 top corners in the 2021 class pass them by. They move up, giving the Cardinals their second-round pick and a sixth-round pick this year. Then, Farley gets to try to deal with Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and the Green Bay Packers twice a year. (AS)

17. Las Vegas Raiders — Greg Newsome II, CB (Northwestern)

This might be viewed a bit of a panic pick, but it’s not. Determined not to miss out on one of the elite corners, the Raiders continue the run at the position with the prospect out of Northwestern. Newsome, if he didn’t go to Northwestern, might be a top-10 pick. Per PFF, he allowed just 11% completion percentage when targeted, which was the lowest of anyone in the draft. He’s versatile, he’s coachable, he has the size and recovery speed. Jon Gruden falls in love with Newsome. (CO)

18. Miami Dolphins — Jaelen Phillips, Edge (Miami)

The Dolphins choose to keep the Miami Hurricane kid home. This edge rusher class is as weak as it has ever been, and there are no standouts. Kwity Paye is considered by many to be the best in the class, but I’ve seen others rank Phillips higher. I think Miami pairs Phillips with a talented defensive unit. (AS)

19. Washington Football Team — Rashod Bateman, WR (Minnesota)

I can close my eyes and picture Ryan Fitzpatrick having a random 5-touchdown game against the Giants with 3 of those scores going to Bateman. A COVID season didn’t allow Bateman to establish himself as a no-doubter top-15 prospect, but it did remind us in flashes that he’s all sorts of NFL-ready to play on the outside. Line Bateman up alongside Terry McLaurin and suddenly you’ve got a young, promising 1-2 punch for Washington’s future quarterback, whoever that is. (CO)

20. Arizona Cardinals (PROJECTED TRADE with Bears) — Christian Barmore, DL (Alabama)

The Cardinals have a few needs defensively. They would have loved to snag Horn at No. 16, but since he was off the board, they trade back and “settle” for the best defensive lineman in the class. Barmore is a guy you can send out there for the next decade and not worry about at all. Plus, he’ll have a great mentor in newly-signed DL JJ Watt. Ideal fit for Barmore. (AS)

21. Indianapolis Colts — Kwity Paye, Edge (Michigan)

If the Colts don’t trade back and hold off on drafting an offensive lineman, Paye would be a nice addition to help out Darius Leonard on the edge. Colts general manager Chris Ballard downplayed the need to add some edge help, but nobody would be surprised if the Colts stayed at No. 21 and got Paye, who has a remarkable story of escaping Guinea and falling in love with football in America. He’d be too enticing to pass up at No. 21. (CO)

22. Tennessee Titans — Kadarius Toney, WR (Florida)

The Titans need a playmaker to pair alongside AJ Brown. With no tight ends worthy of a pick here, they’ll go with a receiver. Toney is as versatile of a weapon as there is in this class. He’s also a guy who can pick up a ton of yards after the catch, which will be great for a QB like Ryan Tannehill. I love this fit, as defenses will have trouble planning for a trio of former SEC stars — Brown, Toney and star RB Derrick Henry. (AS)

23. New York Jets — Terrace Marshall Jr., WR (LSU)

I have a sneaky suspicion that Marshall won’t be there for the Ravens late in Round 1 as so many have predicted. The former LSU star would be a fantastic fit to play alongside Zach Wilson. We saw Marshall develop a great rapport with seemingly 3 LSU quarterbacks, in part because at 6-3, you can line him up in the slot and he’s excellent at coming back to the ball when the play breaks down. That’s where Wilson is going to have to excel, and he can do so from the jump with a guy like Marshall. (CO)

24. Pittsburgh Steelers — Najee Harris, RB (Alabama)

The Steelers have pressing needs along the offensive line, but I’m not sure Christian Darrisaw is worth the No. 24 spot in the draft. Harris, on the other hand, is an elite talent. After the Steelers watched James Conner leave for the Arizona Cardinals, there’s also a need in the backfield. I’d rather take Harris here and then build the offensive line in Round 2 and 3 if I were in charge of this team. (AS)

25. Jacksonville Jaguars — Christian Darrisaw, OL (Virginia Tech)

This draft could line up perfectly for the Jags to get a nice long-term protector for Lawrence. Darrisaw’s stock is a bit all over the place, which seems to be the case for most of the non-Penei Sewell offensive line prospects. Cam Robinson got the franchise tag this year at left tackle, which is ideally where you’d plug in Darrisaw. Getting Darrisaw as the potential long-term replacement there while perhaps giving him a year to develop his technique more would make a lot of sense. (CO)

26. Cleveland Browns — Trevon Moehrig, S (TCU)

It’s crazy to say this after the last couple of decades of Cleveland Browns football, but the team that will host this year’s draft doesn’t actually have a ton of needs. They do need to shore up their secondary, though. With the top corners off the board, it makes sense to snag the best safety in this year’s class in Moehrig. Pairing Moehrig with Grant Delpit, who is returning from injury, seems like a good idea for this team. (AS)

27. Baltimore Ravens — Elijah Moore, WR (Ole Miss)

All Moore does is get separation and catch passes. He can be the high-volume safety valve that Lamar Jackson needs to complement Hollywood Brown. No, he’s not just an overhyped slot guy. Moore can be effective anywhere on the field, and as he showed playing alongside Matt Corral in 2020, he’s exceptional at getting open when the play breaks down. The Ravens seem like an obvious choice to draft a receiver with 1 of their 2 first-round picks. Might as well get the All-American. (CO)

28. New Orleans Saints — Kyle Trask, QB (Florida)

The Saints will likely go with a combo of Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill at QB this fall, but I don’t think either guy is the long-term answer to replace Drew Brees. With Trask available at No. 28, the Saints might be tempted to take a flyer. Trask finished fourth in the 2020 Heisman Trophy voting and has improved as a passer every year. Putting him with a coach like Sean Payton seems like a win-win to me. (AS)

29. Green Bay Packers — Jamin Davis, LB (Kentucky)

Assuming the Packers don’t take another useless backup quarterback in this spot, Davis would make a lot of sense. The Kentucky star has been sky-rocketing up draft boards, not just because he looks like he was built in a lab to play linebacker, but because his ability to pursue ball-carriers is already at an elite level. He’s an ideal inside linebacker who can cover and get to the quarterback, which should be at the top of the Packers’ wish list. (CO)

30. Buffalo Bills — Zaven Collins, LB (Tulsa)

The Bills could use another playmaker on defense, and that’s what Collins is. Collins is a beast of a man who dominated the competition while at Tulsa last year. I think he still has a ways to go in pass coverage, but he can do everything else. He’ll be a good fit for a team looking to make another deep playoff run in 2021. (AS)

31. Baltimore Ravens — Jalen Mayfield, OL (Michigan)

I think the Ravens traded up to this spot in hopes of adding some pass-rushing help with someone like Jamin Davis. But with him off the board, it makes sense to replace Orlando Brown with Mayfield. That right tackle position for Lamar Jackson is especially important. Mayfield is still just 20 years old, but he’s experienced at right tackle and could start immediately. (CO)

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Nick Bolton, LB (Mizzou)

The Bucs don’t really have many needs, as they bring back much of the squad that won the Super Bowl last year. So, I think they go with best player available here. And, in my completely unbiased opinion as a Mizzou grad, Bolton is that guy. Pairing him with former LSU LB Devin White? Man, that sounds awesome. (AS)

Cover photo via @NFLDraft.