If you’re selling your Quinn Ewers stock following the commitment of Arch Manning, that’s your right.

I’ll gladly buy it and take it all the way to the bank.

For whatever reason, Manning’s commitment was seen as a negative blow for Ewers. Never mind the multiple reports that Ewers played a crucial role in recruiting Manning to Austin. If Ewers had stayed in his original 2022 class instead of reclassifying, sure, I’d get the concern that we were perhaps heading into an awkward situation in 2023.

What many somehow overlooked was the fact that Ewers will theoretically be entering his pre-draft year and Manning will be a true freshman. As in, Ewers could be projected as the No. 1 overall pick in the way-too-early 2024 mocks, yet some are of the belief that Manning will win that starting job or if he doesn’t, that he’ll transfer before ever suiting up at Texas (I don’t buy that at all).

If Ewers has a DJ Uiagalelei-like disappointing season as a starter in 2022? Fine, we can talk about that being a battle at this time next year.

But I’m not banking on Ewers being Uiagalelei, and I’m certainly not banking on him being the second coming of Tate Martell. The only thing Ewers and Martell have in common is that they both started their careers in Ryan Day’s offense before leaving. Of course, Martell left because he signed to play in Urban Meyer’s run-heavy, JT Barrett offense and he became a much less intriguing option than transfer Justin Fields in 2019. Ewers reclassified and signed with Ohio State early so that he could cash in on NIL earnings and spend a year learning from arguably the best offensive mind in the sport in Day.

(People act like Martell signed as a 5-star recruit. He didn’t. Meanwhile, Ewers signed as the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2021 class and tied with Vince Young as the highest-rated QB recruit ever in the 247sports rankings era.)

Now, Ewers is working with Steve Sarkisian. As in, another “arguably the best offensive mind in the sport” candidate. Sarkisian led the 2 most prolific offensive seasons in Alabama history. His Texas offense wasn’t historic in 2021, but they did rank No. 18 in FBS and against AP Top 25 foes (min. 4 games), they were No. 6 in America.

Not too shabby for a Year 1 coach who inherited the nation’s No. 104 offense in percentage of returning production.

Ewers came back to the Lone Star State in hopes of taking over the Texas offense, which has preseason All-American Bijan Robinson at tailback and bona fide No. 1 receiver Xavier Worthy on the outside. Texas signing a pair of 5-star offensive linemen recruits will be more of a 2023 boost to an offensive line that needs to improve (and should with 3 returning starters and a handful of rotation guys back).

I say that without knowing what Texas will get at the pass-catcher positions from Alabama transfers Jahleel Billingsley and Agiye Hall. Ewers’ success isn’t dependent on them turning into the stars that many expected they’d be in Tuscaloosa.

Speaking of Alabama, there will be a crowd of people who dismiss Ewers if he’s anything short of brilliant against Alabama. Like, the team with 4 preseason All-Americans on defense, including one of the best defensive players of the 21st century in Will Anderson. If Ewers’ stock somehow drops after that game, I have no problem buying even more.

Why? It’s not just that he has Sarkisian in his ear or that Texas continues to add gobs of talent to surround him. Spend enough time watching Ewers and you’ll see what the buzz is about. His arm is so effortless that it almost feels like he dials himself back on nearly every throw because if he really steps into it, it’ll sail. That’s his biggest negative.

But don’t mistake that as a lack of touch. Remember all of those RPO-slants that Tua Tagovailoa executed flawlessly in Sarkisian’s offense in 2019? Ewers makes that look easy. He has the Matthew Stafford-like ability to successfully change his arm angles and if you need 55 yards on the money, he has that in his bag, too.

Does that mean I’m saying it’s Heisman Trophy or bust? No, but I did say that at 40-to-1, he’s among my favorite “longshots” to win the award. What I’m saying is that there’s a darn good quarterback in Austin who has a chance to light up Power 5 defenses and put himself as the no-doubter starter when Manning arrives in 2023.

There seems to be this notion that all top-flight quarterback recruits have to play as true freshmen. In reality, those situations lack context.

Trevor Lawrence? He entered with Kelly Bryant ahead of him on the depth chart a year removed from a trip to the Playoff, but the incumbent starter had a quarterback rating of 131.7 and he had 13 touchdown passes in 14 games the previous year. Bryant was a fine quarterback, and he was a weapon with his legs, but once you saw it side by side with Lawrence in September of his freshman year, you saw why Dabo Swinney went in the direction he did.

Justin Fields didn’t get that type of opportunity because Jake Fromm had just led Georgia to its first national championship berth since the Herschel Walker era. Fields left after that first year not just because he never started a game, but because Fromm was still there, and he was coming off his best season.

Tua Tagovailoa vs. Jalen Hurts was a debate because they were only 1 class apart heading into 2018, Tagovailoa’s sophomore season. Had Tagovailoa not won the job that camp, Hurts would have been blocking his Year 2 path.

Ewers will not block Manning’s Year 2 path. You don’t reclassify as the No. 1 overall recruit unless you want to get on the fast track to the NFL. And if Ewers doesn’t perform well enough as a second-year starter in 2023, then perhaps we could get a Spencer Rattler-type situation.

In a weird way, that’s what some seem to be predicting for this Ewers-Manning dynamic. Check Twitter and you’d think the masses were predicting Manning to do what Caleb Williams or Lawrence did. That is, uproot a starter 2 years older than they are. Even if that does play out, it would be the result of Ewers not capitalizing on his opportunity in 2022 and at least in the start of 2023.

The guy is gonna get some runway. Don’t be surprised when he takes off and he delays the full Arch Manning experience until 2024.