ACC betting preview for the Sweet 16

The ACC will have 4 teams involved in the Sweet 16 this week.

North Carolina, Duke, Clemson and NC State all qualified for the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The Tar Heels and Blue Devils were expected to make it this far, but the Tigers and Wolfpack are party-crashers. Both Clemson and NC State upset a higher-seeded Big 12 team in order to reach this round.

Of the ACC’s 4 programs to make it this far, only North Carolina is favored to reach the Elite Eight. Duke, Clemson and NC State are all underdogs in Sweet 16 action this weekend.

Here’s a betting preview for all 4 of the ACC’s Sweet 16 contests:

Note: All lines are via ESPN Bet unless otherwise noted

6 Clemson vs. 2 Arizona | Thursday, March 28 | 7:09 p.m. ET | Los Angeles, California | CBS

Spread: Arizona -7.5

Total: 152.5 points

Clemson is playing in the Sweet 16 for just the second time in the last 25+ seasons. The Tigers haven’t made the Elite Eight since 1980. History is on Arizona’s side in almost every way, but Clemson has played well vs. elite teams all season and the Wildcats have looked a bit shaky recently with losses to Washington State, USC and Oregon in the last 5 weeks.

4 Alabama vs. 1 North Carolina | Thursday, March 28 | 9:39 p.m. ET | Los Angeles, California | CBS

Spread: North Carolina -4.5

Total: 173.5 points

North Carolina is a significant favorite here as it prepares to face an Alabama team that has not played particularly well in several weeks. The Tide do find themselves in the Sweet 16, but only after sneaking past a No. 12-seeded Grand Canyon team that looked woefully-disorganized offensively in the round of 32. Alabama is the only remaining team with a defense ranked outside the top-100 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings. Latrell Wrightsell Jr., one of Alabama’s best shooters and perimeter defenders, is questionable for this game.

11 NC State vs. 2 Marquette | Friday, March 29 | 7:09 p.m. ET | Dallas, Texas | CBS

Spread: Marquette -6.5

Total: 151.5 points

NC State defeated Texas Tech and Oakland in order to get to this point, but Marquette will be the toughest team it has faced since its ACC Tournament title win over UNC. The Golden Eagles got past an underrated Colorado team in the round of 32 and appear to be healthy after dealing with some injury concerns late in the year. A win over this Marquette team would be NC State’s most impressive victory yet during this run.

4 Duke vs. 1 Houston | Friday, March 29 | 9:39 p.m. ET | Dallas, Texas | CBS

Spread: Houston -4.5

Total: 133.5 points

Houston survived a near-collapse against Texas A&M in the round of 32. Meanwhile, Duke calmly took care of business against an upset-minded James Madison team to reach the Sweet 16. The Blue Devils have looked strong in the NCAA Tournament after struggling a bit down the stretch in ACC play. Houston remains one of the favorites to win the whole Tournament, but could be vulnerable against Duke’s shot-making.

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3 Picks

PJ Hall under 22.5 points + rebounds (-125 at ESPN Bet)

PJ Hall has been Clemson’s best player all season, but he’s struggled a bit to start the NCAA Tournament. He hasn’t come close to this prop in either of Clemson’s first two games against Texas Tech and Baylor and now will face an even better opponent in Arizona. Hall’s rebounding has fallen off a cliff recently — he has 9 in his last 4 games combined. Hall hasn’t hit the over on this prop in any of his last 4 games against top-50 KenPom opponents. He’s averaging just 15.5 points and 5.2 rebounds per game over his last 12 games — and none of those contests were against teams as strong as Arizona.

North Carolina over 88.5 points (-120 at ESPN Bet)

Alabama’s defense has been horrible for weeks, and it will now face a UNC attack that has scored at least 1.15 points per possession in 6 of its last 5 games. Here’s how the Tide’s defense has performed against KenPom’s top-15 offenses this season:

Dec. 9: Purdue scored 1.28 points per possession in a 92-86 win over Alabama
Dec. 12: Arizona scored 1.09 points per possession in a 87-74 win over Alabama
Dec. 16: Creighton scored 1.23 points per possession in a 85-82 win over Alabama
Jan. 24: Auburn scored 1.03 points per possession in a 79-75 loss to Alabama
Feb. 7: Auburn scored 1.28 points per possession in a 99-81 win over Alabama
Feb. 21: Florida scored 1.15 points per possession in a 98-93 (OT) loss to Alabama
Feb. 24: Kentucky scored 1.46 points per possession in a 117-95 win over Alabama
March 5: Florida scored 1.31 points per possession in a 105-87 win over Alabama
March 15: Florida scored 1.28 points per possession in a 102-88 win over Alabama

Notice a pattern there? Alabama is 2-7 in games against top-15 KenPom offenses this season and has given up more than 1.2 points per possession in 6 of those games. Two of those games where Alabama managed just post a defensive rating under 120 were played in Tuscaloosa (Auburn and Florida). The other, against Arizona, was on a neutral floor way back in December. Carolina has the nation’s No. 16-ranked offense entering the weekend, per KenPom. EvanMiya is projecting a shade under 78 possessions in this game, which would mean UNC would need to score about 1.14 points per possession for this over to hit.

Duke money line (+160 on ESPN Bet)

I shared this pick in a piece on the best-value money line underdogs for the Sweet 16 as well. Houston is a good team, but the Blue Devils are red-hot going into this matchup. Jared McCain poured in 30 points in a win over James Madison last week and he’s far from Duke’s top option offensively — he was 3rd on the team in usage rate during ACC play. Kyle Filipowski, Tyrese Proctor, Mark Mitchell and of course Jeremy Roach are all capable of hurting Houston offensively. In a game that’s not likely to have a high amount of possessions (EvanMiya’s projection is set at just over 64), this game could turn into a toss-up pretty quickly. I’ll happily take the Blue Devils to win at plus-money.