B1G Tournament championship preview: Best bets for Wisconsin vs. Illinois

Wisconsin will meet Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament championship game on Sunday afternoon.

Both teams have taken interesting paths to get to this game. Wisconsin needed to pull off a big upset over tournament-favorite Purdue in order to reach the title game, while the Illini required multiple double-digit comebacks to get to this stage.

Illinois and Wisconsin met just a couple weeks ago in Madison during the regular season. Illinois won that game 91-83 thanks to a strong offensive performance (more on that later).

Here’s a breakdown for this game as well as 3 best bets:

Game 13: Wisconsin vs. Illinois – 2:30 p.m. CT (CBS)

Wisconsin reached this game thanks to a 76-75 win over Purdue on Saturday. The Badgers were underdogs to No. 1 Purdue, but pulled off the upset thanks to big performances by Chucky Hepburn and AJ Storr.

Wisconsin also defeated Maryland and Northwestern en route to this game. The Badgers shot exceptionally well from the 3-point line in those contests. They went 16-of-25 against Maryland and then 10-of-22 against Northwestern. It was the first time all season that Wisconsin shot better than 40% from 3-point range in back-to-back games on a minimum of 22 attempts.

That elite 3-point shooting dried up against Purdue (7-of-32), but it didn’t matter. The Badgers shot a very strong 25-of-42 from inside the arc against the Boilermakers and played very strong defense against Zach Edey. Purdue’s offense scored just 1.05 points per possession against Wisconsin, far below its season average.

Illinois overcame a 15-point second-half deficit to defeat Nebraska on Saturday in the semifinals. The Illini made 13 3-pointers in their big comeback as they shot 37% from 3-point range. Illinois is not typically a high-volume 3-point shooting team. Those 13 makes vs. the Huskers were tied for their most made 3-pointers in a game all season. In their previous 3 games (including their Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal), Illinois made a combined 13 3-pointers (on 47 attempts).

The Illini also had to overcome a double-digit deficit to Ohio State on Friday. The Buckeyes led by 10 points midway through the second half, but Illinois was able to grind out that victory thanks to 28 points from Terrence Shannon Jr. Illinois did not shoot it well against Ohio State — just 4-of-15 from beyond arc — which proves the Fighting Illini are capable of winning in multiple ways.

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1 side

Wisconsin +3.5 (-110 at FanDuel). Wisconsin has been a streaky team all season, and I’m buying its recent run to continue on Sunday. Wisconsin’s defense has been excellent so far in the Big Ten Tournament and it will need another big performance vs. the Illini. In the previous meeting between these programs during the regular season, Illinois scored more than 1.3 points per possessions vs. the Badgers in Madison. However, that offensive outburst from the Illini included a 56% mark from 3-point range and a 31-point showing from Marcus Domask. Wisconsin’s 3-point defense is a weakness, but I don’t expect the Illini’s offense to be that good again in the rematch. The Badgers are 5-3 against the spread as an underdog of 6 points or less this season. They’ve also won all 5 of those games outright, including their victory over Purdue on Saturday.

1 total

Over 148 points (-108 at DraftKings). I’ll take the over in this spot, given that these teams put up 174 points in Madison just a couple of weeks ago. As mentioned above, that total was inflated by a hot shooting performance from Illinois — but there’s still quite a bit of cushion between 174 and 148. Both of these teams have enjoyed great 3-point shooting during the Big Ten Tournament as well, so another big outburst is certainly possible.

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1 player prop

Terrence Shannon Jr. over 2.5 3-pointers (+124 on DraftKings). Terrence Shannon Jr. is Illinois’ highest-volume 3-point shooter and has been solid from long range this year. He enters this game having made 35.7% of his 3-point attempts on the year (on a volume of 6.7 per game). In his last 10 games, Shannon has cleared this total 5 times and is shooting 38% from 3 overall. This pick also plays into one of Wisconsin’s biggest weaknesses. The Badgers do not defend the perimeter very well — they rank 347th nationally in 3-point percentage defense. Shannon went 3-of-6 from long range in Illinois’ win in Madison earlier this month. He’s liable to get up 8+ 3-point attempts in this game and I like the value at plus-money for him to make at least 3 of them.