Betting Stuff: Favorite Final Four futures ahead of the 2024 NCAA Tournament

The best time of the year is upon us. The NCAA Tournament begins this week, where UConn will look to defend its title while Purdue, Houston, North Carolina, and others will look to knock off the Huskies.

Last year’s tournament saw a 4-seed, a pair of 5-seeds, and a 9-seed make the Final Four. All of the top seeds bowed out before we even reached the regional finals. In fact, only 4 top seeds have made it to the Final Four in the last 4 NCAA Tournaments that have been held.

They don’t call it Madness for nothing. Will we get another Saint Peter’s or another Princeton? Perhaps. But there’s also a ton of value for sports bettors in the 2-5 seed lines across the bracket. Here are my favorite value picks to make the Final Four.

#2 Iowa State

Odds to win East Region: +425 (BetMGM)
Percentage chance of reaching Final Four, per BartTorvik: 25.1%

Iowa State faces South Dakota State in the first round on Thursday. The Cyclones will be a popular pick to advance in the NCAA Tournament after running through the Big 12 Tournament. Iowa State beat Kansas State by 19, Baylor by 14, and then Houston in the championship game by 28 points.

In doing so, ISU climbed up to fifth in KenPom’s team rankings. It’s a fine offense. They have 4 players who average at least 10 a game, so it’s tough to nail down where the damage is going to come from on any given night if you’re scouting them. The Cyclones have gotten it done late in the season because of their defense. With a super-sized guard at the point (Keshon Gilbert dominates the spot at 6-4, 200) and a pair of lengthy defenders on the wing, Iowa State wreaks havoc on teams and forces a crazy-high turnover percentage.

They’d potentially have to go through the Big Ten champ (Illinois) and the defending national champ (UConn) to get out of the East and make the Final Four — both teams possess top-3 offenses, per KenPom — but at the current price on BetMGM, there’s a ton of value here.

#2 Arizona

Odds to win West Region: +260 (BetMGM)
Percentage chance of reaching Final Four, per BartTorvik: 33.7%

In each of Tommy Lloyd’s first 2 seasons at Arizona, the Wildcats won the Pac-12 Tournament and then disappointed in the NCAAs. This year, maybe they got the disappointment over with early…?

Arizona lost the regular-season finale to what was a disappointing USC team and then it lost to Oregon in the Pac-12 Tournament, dampening what was an otherwise awesome season. The Wildcats beat Duke, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Alabama all earlier this season when a remade roster was still figuring out how to play together.

Caleb Love has been fantastic for the Wildcats, and now he gets to play in his favorite competition. His backcourt partner, Kylan Boswell, has gone the other way. Boswell has the lowest PER of any Wildcat to play at least 40 minutes this year, but Lloyd has stuck with him in the starting unit. Does a talented player reward that faith now that the Tournament is here? Boswell is the X-factor because Arizona has all the pieces to make its first Final Four run under Lloyd.

#4 Auburn

Odds to win East Region: +500 (FanDuel)
Percentage chance of reaching Final Four, per BartTorvik: 19.4%

Auburn took a brief break from beating the pulp out of teams and outlasted a really good Mississippi State team in the SEC Tournament semis. But then it was right back to smacking down opponents en route to an SEC tourney title.

The Tigers are 7-1 in neutral-site games played this season. Of their 26 wins, 25 of them have featured double-digit margins. They are fourth overall in KenPom’s rankings, bolstered by top-10 marks in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. In the title game, Auburn’s young guards showed they were more than capable of stepping up and making crucial plays — the last real question mark with this team.

Bruce Pearl has cultivated a deep rotation with teeth. There are very few flaws with this group. They just have to make it out of the toughest part of the bracket.

#5 Saint Mary’s

Odds to win West Region: +1400 (BetMGM)
Percentage chance of reaching Final Four, per BartTorvik: 10.6%

The Gaels get Grand Canyon in the opening round. Should they win, it sets up an incredibly fascinating matchup with Alabama — a run-and-gun outfit that has gone all-in on its offense — in the second round.

Saint Mary’s grinds games to an uncomfortable halt and forces teams to play at their tempo. They’re one of the slowest teams in basketball, with offensive possessions that go on and on and on. They’re also the best rebounding team in the country. Your opportunities are going to be very limited when facing Randy Bennett’s group, so teams have to make the most of them.

By the way, the Gaels have the third-best shot defense in basketball, per KenPom.

Uncomfortable.