Duke vs. James Madison preview: Player prop bet picks

Duke will take on James Madison in a round-of-32 game on Sunday afternoon.

Both teams are now just one win away from a Sweet 16 appearance. On Friday, the Blue Devils took down Vermont while James Madison pulled off the upset against No. 5-seeded Wisconsin.

4 Duke vs. 12 James Madison betting info

Spread: Duke -6.5 (via ESPN Bet)
Total: 147.5 points (via ESPN Bet)

Duke has beaten the number in 10 of its last 14 games overall, including in its opening-round game vs. Vermont. James Madison is 2-0 against KenPom top-20 teams this season and is 3-1 against the spread as an underdog this season.

To help with making predictions in this matchup, here’s some advanced stats via KenPom for both teams:

Opponent-adjusted offensive ratings

Duke: 121.7 (8th)
James Madison: 113.4 (65th)

Opponent-adjusted defensive ratings

Duke: 96.0 (22nd)
James Madison: 99.6 (55th)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

Duke: 66.7 possessions per game (236th)
James Madison: 69.8 possessions per game (63rd)

Here are 3 player prop picks for this game:

Jared McCain under 14.5 points (-130 at ESPN Bet)

Jared McCain has been awesome for Duke as a shooter this season, but it’s not often he scored 15+ points in a game. He’s done that in just 14-of-34 contests so far this season. Additionally, McCain is heavily reliant on the 3-point shot to score — over half of his field goal attempts this season have come from long range. James Madison has arguably the nation’s best 3-point defense. The Dukes allow opponents to make just 28.8% of their 3-pointers and are also pretty good at limiting attempts (they’re 101st nationally in 3-point attempt rate allowed). Duke may have to look elsewhere for scoring opportunities in this game.

Kyle Filipowski over 16.5 points (-115 at ESPN Bet)

Kyle Filipowski was not great as a scorer in Duke’s first-round matchup vs. Vermont. He managed just 3 points in that game, but he did dish out 4 assists. I expect Filipowski to be more involved as a scorer in this game given James Madison’s ability to defend the perimeter. At 7-foot, Filipowski remains a matchup nightmare for the James Madison defense. Filipowski has cleared this total in 4 of his last 7 games.

Noah Freidel under 10.5 points (-110 at ESPN Bet)

Noah Freidel is arguably James Madison’s best shooter. He’s made over 37% of his 199 3-point attempts so far this season. However, he’s not a high-volume player outside of his work from beyond the 3-point line — his usage rate of 17.2% ranks 6th amongst JMU rotation players. James Madison has faced 2 power-conference teams prior to this matchup against the Blue Devils in Wisconsin and Michigan State. Freidel went under this total in both of those contests.

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