NC State vs. Texas Tech preview: Player prop bet picks

NC State is set to battle Texas Tech on Thursday night in the NCAA Tournament.

The Wolfpack earned a No. 11 seed in this year’s Big Dance thanks to its historic run to the ACC Tournament title last week in Washington DC. NC State won 5 games in 5 days, including upset victories over Duke, Virginia and North Carolina in consecutive days.

Texas Tech is a No. 6 seed after going 11-7 in a tough Big 12 this season. The Red Raiders are favored in this matchup, but NC State will surely be eyeing yet another upset as it takes the court against Texas Tech.

11 NC State vs. 6 Texas Tech betting info

Spread: Texas Tech -4.5 (via ESPN Bet)
Total: 145.5 points (via ESPN Bet)

Texas Tech is favored by 4.5 points in this matchup. The Red Raiders are just 15-17-1 against the spread this season and only 6-9 against the spread when favored by 4 points or more. NC State is 9-6-1 against the spread as an underdog this season and has beaten the number in 4 straight games. Now that North Carolina sports betting is legal, you can wager on this game over at ESPN Bet!

To help with making predictions in this matchup, here’s some advanced stats via KenPom for both teams:

Opponent-adjusted offensive ratings

NC State: 114.4 (47th)
Texas Tech: 117.8 (24th)

Opponent-adjusted defensive ratings

NC State: 101.4 (91st)
Texas Tech: 99.5 (50th)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

NC State: 68.1 possessions per game (138th)
Texas Tech: 66.7 possessions per game (233rd)

Here are 3 player prop picks for this game:

DJ Burns over 15.5 points + assists (-135 on ESPN Bet)

Burns was one of the biggest reasons why NC State won the ACC Tournament last week as he averaged 15.2 points and 3.4 assists per game during that miraculous run. The 6-foot-9, 275-pound big man figures to be a matchup nightmare for a Texas Tech front court that doesn’t start anyone bigger than 6-foot-7, 225 pounds. Burns is a college basketball veteran, but this will be just his third-ever NCAA Tournament game — I expect him to be ready to have a big night in what could be his final college game.

Chance McMillian over 11.5 points (-120 on ESPN Bet)

Pop Isaacs gets a lot of the shine for Texas Tech, but Chance McMillian is the Red Raiders’ most efficient scorer. McMillian has a true shooting percentage of 63% on the year and has been ramping up his volume in recent weeks as well. He’s scored in double-figures in 7 of his past 8 games. Dating back 2 months to Jan. 20, McMillian is averaging 13.5 points per game on shooting splits of 50.4%/38.8%/93.5%. NC State’s defense appeared to make big strides during the ACC Tournament, but the Wolfpack are still ranked 125th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency since March 1, per BartTorvik. McMillan is exactly the type of off-the-bench guard that could make the Wolfpack pay.

DJ Horne under 2.5 made 3-pointers (-185 on ESPN Bet)

DJ Horne is in the midst of a 3-point shooting slump. In his last 9 games, Horne has made just 28.6% of his long-range attempts on a volume of 4.7 tries per game. For context, in his 9 games prior to this slump, Horne made 47.4% of his 3-point attempts on 8.4 attempts per game. Part of his inefficiency from beyond the arc may be health-related (he’s coming off of a hip injury), but his overall production has still been pretty impressive. He averaged 17.5 points per game on decent efficiency during NC State’s run to the ACC Tournament crown. I more-or-less expect his strong numbers to continue against Texas Tech — I’m just not necessarily expecting a 3-point resurgence in this spot.

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