NCAA Tournament futures market: Best bets to make Sweet 16, Elite Eight in 2024

The NCAA Tournament will get started with the Round of 64 in just a couple of days.

With the bracket now finalized, it’s time to take a look at the NCAA Tournament futures market. Several of the best online sportsbooks have released odds for all 68 teams to reach the Sweet 16 or the Elite Eight. By comparing those odds to projections from EvanMiya’s tourney odds, we can attempt to tap into some of that value.

After comparing odds from a variety of sportsbooks to EvanMiya’s projections, here are the highest expected value bets on the board as of Tuesday evening for teams to make the Sweet 16 or the Elite Eight:

Best bets to make the Sweet 16

Colorado (+1100 on DraftKings)

Implied odds: 8.33%
EvanMiya odds: 11.6%
Expected value: $39.20 on a $100 bet
Approximate break-even point: +762

Colorado still has to get past Boise State in the First Four, but there’s value on the Buffs at almost every stage of this tournament. Colorado also made an appearance in our Final Four best bets earlier this week. This is a team with more talent than you’d typically see on a 10-seed — the Buffs have multiple pro prospects, led by projected lottery pick Cody Williams.

Florida Atlantic (+1100 on DraftKings)

Implied odds: 8.33%
EvanMiya odds: 11.2%
Expected value: $34.40 on a $100 bet
Approximate break-even point: +793

Florida Atlantic had an underwhelming season after getting all the way to the Final Four a year ago. But while the Owls have struggled against inferior competition all season (3 losses in Quad 3 and Quad 4), they’ve been pretty good against other strong teams. FAU’s path to the Sweet 16 does look awfully difficult — it would have to beat a solid Big Ten foe in Northwestern and then defeat the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed in UConn. Nevertheless, EvanMiya’s model is showing value on the Owls here.

Alabama (+104 on DraftKings)

Implied odds: 47.62%
EvanMiya odds: 61.6%
Expected value: $29.36 on a $100 bet
Approximate break-even point: -160

Alabama losing in the first two rounds is a popular upset pick, especially given how the Tide have played defensively over the last couple of months. But EvanMiya’s model shows value on Alabama in this spot all the way down to -160. Alabama’s path to the Sweet 16 would include a win over Charleston and then a victory over either Saint Mary’s or Grand Canyon. Alabama figures to have a significant athleticism advantage in both of its first-weekend contests.

Best bets to make the Elite Eight

James Madison (+4000 on DraftKings)

Implied odds: 2.44%
EvanMiya odds: 3.7%
Expected value: $51.70 on a $100 bet
Approximate break-even point: +2603

James Madison enters this tournament as a dangerous No. 12 seed, but this is a long-shot play. Since 2000, there have been just 2 No. 12 seeds to make it to the Elite Eight. The Dukes open the NCAA Tournament against Wisconsin and then would face Duke or Vermont in the Round of 32. If JMU does make it past those challenges, it would likely face Houston, Nebraska or Texas A&M with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line.

Duke (+390 on DraftKings)

Implied odds: 20.41%
EvanMiya odds: 28.3%
Expected value: $38.67 on a $100 bet
Approximate break-even point: +253

Duke finished second behind North Carolina in the ACC during the regular season, but otherwise had a strong year. The Blue Devils are ranked in the top-30 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, which is usually an indicator that a team could go far in the tournament.

Kentucky (+295 on DraftKings)

Implied odds: 25.32%
EvanMiya odds: 32.8%
Expected value: $29.56 on a $100 bet
Approximate break-even point: +205

Kentucky had an up-and-down season and there’s no reason to think things will be any different during the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats are volatile by design, capable of both explosive offensive outbursts as well as debilitating defensive stretches. UK does have some of the best guard play in the country, as well as a deep stable of shooters led by Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham and Antonio Reeves.

Note: Colorado (+2500) and Alabama (+400) would have made the top-3 in this section by expected value, but they were omitted because they were previously covered in the Sweet 16 best bets portion of this story.

Sports betting in North Carolina is now live! If you want to bet on the NCAA Tournament in the Tar Heel State this week, be sure to sign up with DraftKings in North Carolina and take advantage of a special welcome offer!