North Carolina vs. Wagner preview: Player prop bet picks

North Carolina will take on Wagner in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday afternoon.

The Tar Heels earned a No. 1 seed after a strong close to the season that included a sweep of Duke. Carolina also made it to the ACC Tournament title game, but fell to NC State in that matchup.

Wagner went just 7-9 during league play this season, but has pulled off 4 straight upsets in postseason play — including a First Four win over Howard on Tuesday night — to earn the right to play North Carolina on Thursday.

North Carolina vs. Wagner betting info

Spread: North Carolina -24.5 (via ESPN Bet)
Total: 133.5 points (via ESPN Bet)

Carolina’s 24.5-point spread is tied for the second-largest spread of any first-round game at ESPN Bet as of publication. The Tar Heels are 2-1 against the spread this season when favored by 23 or more points, so they have in this spot before. Now that sports betting in North Carolina is legal, you can wager on this game over at ESPN Bet!

To help with making predictions in this matchup, here’s some advanced stats via KenPom for both teams:

Opponent-adjusted offensive ratings

North Carolina: 117.8 (24th)
Wagner: 96.1 (332nd)

Opponent-adjusted defensive ratings

North Carolina: 93.2 (6th)
Wagner: 100.9 (172nd)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

North Carolina: 70.1 possessions per game (41st)
Wagner: 61.4 possessions per game (361st)

Here are 3 player prop picks for this game:

Melvin Council under 13.5 points (-105 on DraftKings)

Melvin Council is Wagner’s leading scorer this season, averaging 14.8 points per game. He scored 21 points in Wagner’s win over Howard in Dayton on Tuesday night. However, Council is a very inefficient offensive player. His true shooting percentage currently sits at 45.3% and he’s hit only 25.9% of his 3-point attempts this season. How, he’s going to be at the top of the scouting report against a UNC defense that has been elite this season. I think the Tar Heels will hold him to 13 points or less in this spot.

Elliot Cadeau points + assists over 12.5 (+100 on FanDuel)

Elliot Cadeau has been coming into his own as Carolina’s pass-first point guard alongside RJ Davis. Wagner is arguably the worst team in this year’s NCAA Tournament field, so there should be plenty of open passing lanes for Cadeau to exploit. He may even be able to flex his scoring muscle against the Seahawks in a way that he can’t (yet) against ACC opposition. This seems like a spot where the former 5-star prospect could have a big coming out party, and at even-money, the value on this prop is good, too.

Armando Bacot over 14.5 points (-114 on FanDuel)

Armando Bacot took a back seat in the offense to RJ Davis during the regular season, but he seems to be ramping up the intensity late in the year. Bacot produced 3 straight double-doubles in the ACC Tournament and went over this line in 2 of those games. Notably, Bacot’s usage rate also went up for those contests. There is some risk of Bacot not playing his usual minutes load if this game gets out of hand, but I think he’ll get to 15 points.