Picks and props from Wednesday’s NCAA Tournament First Four action

The NCAA Tournament continues on Wednesday with 2 more contests in Dayton, Ohio, as part of the First Four round.

No. 16 seeds Grambling State and Montana State will face off in the early game at 6:40 p.m. ET, with the winner advancing to face Purdue. Then, in the nightcap at 9:10 p.m. ET, Boise State will battle Colorado for the right to face Florida in the round of 64.

Here’s the schedule for the evening, followed by 3 prop picks for the slate. Fans can bet on these games by signing up with one Saturday Down South’s recommended sports betting apps prior to tipoff!

(All times Eastern; spread and totals via Bet365):

16 Grambling State vs. 16 Montana State (6:40 p.m., truTV)

Grambling State earned its spot in the field by cruising to the SWAC Tournament title. The Tigers went 14-4 during the regular season and then won all 3 conference tournament games by multiple possessions. Nothing stands out too much about Grambling State’s statistical profile, although it is worth noting that it doesn’t take many 3-pointers (334th nationally in 3-point attempt rate) and is a poor rebounding team (334th nationally in defensive rebounding rate). Grambling State had the 4th best defense in the SWAC during league play, per KenPom’s opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency metric.

Montana State was not dominant at all during the regular season, but prevailed in the Big Sky Conference Tournament with a win over rival Montana in the final. Despite just a 9-9 record in league play, the Bobcats are ranked 58 spots higher than Grambling State according to KenPom. Montana State doesn’t get offensive rebounds (356th nationally in O-rebounding rate) but it does force turnovers at a high rate (1st in Big Sky and 46th nationally in steal rate). Offensively, Montana State is led by a trio of relatively-efficient scorers in Brandon Walker, Robert Ford and Brian Goracke.

Spread: Montana State -4.5

Total: 134.5 points

10 Colorado vs. 10 Boise State (9:10 p.m., truTV)

Colorado squeaked into the NCAA Tournament thanks to a big winning streak to close out the regular season. The Buffs won 8 in a row before falling to Oregon in the Pac-12 Tournament title game. They’re more talented than your typical 10-seed — projected lottery pick Cody Williams isn’t even amongst the team’s leaders in usage rate. This is a team that ranks inside the top-40 nationally in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. Colorado is a 10-seed because of its résumé, but its talent and efficiency metrics point toward this being a much better team than that.

Boise State had a solid season in the Mountain West, but got sent to Dayton after there were 5 bid-stealers during Champ Week. The Broncos have some impressive wins this season, including over tournament teams such as Saint Mary’s, Nevada, Colorado State, San Diego State and New Mexico (twice). Boise is an elite defensive rebounding team (6th nationally) and is at least above-average in most other areas. Other strengths include 3-point defense and scoring at the foul line.

Spread: Colorado -3

Total: 143.5 points

3 bets

Montana State -4.5 (-110 at Bet365). I’m backing Montana State’s shotmakers in this matchup. The Bobcats made 39.7% of their 3-pointers during conference play and also have some efficient options in the mid-range. I don’t trust Grambling State on either side of the ball, particularly on offense. The Tigers are 327th nationally in offensive steal rate, which is a bad matchup against this Montana State defense that is predicated on creating turnovers in the open court.

Robert Ford over 2.5 steals (-110 at DraftKings). As mentioned above, Montana State’s specialty on defense is creating steals. No one on the Bobcats is better at it than Ford, who averaged 2.9 steals per game. His steal rate of 4.9% ranks No. 8 amongst all players nationally, per KenPom. This would be an intriguing pick in a lot of matchups, but especially so against a Grambling State team that has the worst steal rate (11% of any team in the field.

KJ Simpson over 18.5 points (-115 at FanDuel). KJ Simpson has been Colorado’s most effective offensive player this season. He’s averaging 19.6 points per game on the year with an impressive 61.2% true shooting percentage. A strong 3-point shooter, Simpson is also good from inside the arc. He’s shot 49.3% from 2-point range and 55% at the rim this season. Those are good numbers for a 6-foot-2 guard, and his percentages should play up against a Boise State defense that ranks outside the top 250 nationally in both 2-point percentage defense and block rate.