Michigan is garnering headlines for all the wrong reasons, and outside doubts over the legitimacy of its unbeaten record are piling up.

But Ohio State stands as the team with more to prove in Saturday’s 118th rendition of The Game, when the No. 2 Buckeyes (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten East) visit Michigan Stadium to take on the arch nemesis No. 3 Wolverines (also 11-0, 8-0).

Ryan Day faces the prospect of becoming the first Ohio State coach since John Cooper in 1995-97 to lose 3 straight to Michigan. And unlike last year’s battle of unbeatens in The Game, the Buckeyes most likely won’t be making the Playoff with a loss. There’s a lot at stake.

In the past 2 games in this series, the Buckeyes have been bullied, losing 42-27 in 2021 and 45-23 last year. Day enticed DC Jim Knowles away from Oklahoma State to fix the defense last year, but in the game that matters most Knowles did no better than predecessor Kerry Coombs. In 2021 under Coombs, the Buckeyes gave up 169 yards and 5 TDs on the ground to Hassan Haskins. Last year with Knowles, they ceded 216 rushing yards to Donovan Edwards and 263 passing to JJ McCarthy.

Buckeyes fans can bellyache about stolen signs potentially skewing those numbers. But Day and Knowles have no valid excuses going forward. If Ohio State loses, Day will still be a ridiculous 56-7 as a head coach. The problem is that he’ll be 1-3 vs. Michigan.

The coaches

Day and Jim Harbaugh have spent the week dodging questions about whether they like and/or respect each other, leading to an obvious conclusion: They don’t. Given the nature of this border states rivalry first played in 1897, that’s as it should be. The simmering animosity of these fan bases goes back almost as far as the Hatfields/McCoys feud.

Harbaugh seemingly is the bigger story here, even though he won’t be in the stadium while serving the final installment of his 2nd 3-game suspension of the season. OC and acting head coach Sherrone Moore will again put Harbaugh’s game plan into effect after working through it with the 9th-year head coach during the week. Harbaugh is 85-25 at Michigan, with 6 straight bowl losses since a Citrus Bowl victory in 2015, his first season.

Day, in his 5th season since being promoted to replace Urban Meyer, is 2-3 in bowls, including a CFP semifinal victory in 2020.

There is plenty of speculation that Harbaugh’s days leading his alma mater may be dwindling, that the ongoing NCAA investigations — with mounting evidence — will force Michigan to jettison its favorite son. (Or that he’ll leave on his own.) And this season could still end badly, given Harbaugh’s bowl history.

Day appears safe in Columbus, except that Cooper won big time (76.2%) against everyone other than Michigan (2-10-1). Even  with a loss, Day will be at an 88.9% win rate. The OSU administration  probably  isn’t fickle enough to make a knee-jerk move. But rivalry emotions do often trump reason. Day’s seat would heat up, at the least.

The stats

It’s a matchup of the top 2 scoring defenses in the nation. Michigan allows 9 points per game, Ohio State 9.3. The Wolverines also lead the country in total defense, allowing 234.8 yards per game. The Buckeyes are 3rd (252.8). Michigan gets after opposing quarterbacks better, with 27 sacks vs. 21 for Ohio State. Some of the differences can be chalked up to Michigan’s easier schedule.

Ohio State has the better offense, No. 1 in the Big Ten at 429.3 yards per game. Michigan is 2nd in the league at 399.6. Michigan has the better run game, though it is not nearly as dominant as a year ago (down 67 yards per game at 171.0). Ohio State has the better passing game.

Injury updates

If LT LaDarius Henderson and WR Roman Wilson both return after missing all/most of last weekend’s 31-24 victory over Maryland, Michigan will be in good shape. And Moore has said he expects that to be the case.

As for Ohio State, Day said early in the week: “We’re expecting to get everybody back.” Recently dinged up/questionable players include DT Michael Hall Jr, safety Lathan Ransom and linebacker Tommy Eichenberg.

Series history

Michigan, the winningest program in college football history with exactly 1,000 victories, leads the all-time series 60-51-6, including wins in the past 2 meetings. Ohio State owned this millennium in the pre-pandemic period, winning 8 straight and 15 of 16 through 2019. The Buckeyes are 2nd all-time in wins with 964, 1 ahead of Alabama.

Gus Johnson will be annoying

This matchup is FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff game, which means the network’s supposed A team of Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt and Jenny Taft will be on the call. That’s a trigger warning for those watching at home. Mute and go with your homer radio guys if you must.

Otherwise, Michigan fans must brace for the exuberant Johnson to go up in decibels and pitch any time “Maserati Marv” makes a catch. Ohio State will have to brace for Johnson’s gushing love for “The Little Big Man” if Blake Corum breaks a long run.

You’ll be annoyed when plays go against your team anyway. … But count on Johnson the Grate to make it worse.

The betting line

The Wolverines remained favored by 3 to 3.5 points as of Thursday morning, with ESPN’s Matchup Predictor giving them a 55.1% chance of winning. One must assume Michigan’s off-field turmoil and slumping QB are already factored in. The matchup hasn’t produced a 1-score outcome since the Buckeyes won 30-27 in 2016.

The weather forecast

The latest forecast calls for light winds and a high of 39 degrees, with just a slight chance of precipitation. In other words, perfect Big Ten football weather. The snow is expected to hold off until Sunday.

The attendance

Two years ago, 111,156 spectators jammed into the Big House to watch Haskins and Michigan outscore the Buckeyes 28-14 in the second half on the way a 42-27 victory and the Wolverines’ first Playoff appearance.

The stadium record stands at 115,109, for a regular season game against Notre Dame more than a decade ago. The crowd from The Game in 2021 doesn’t even crack the top 10.

Michigan, which leads the country in attendance on an annual basis, owns the top 20 crowds in college history for games played in established football stadiums. A Tennessee-Virginia Tech game played at Bristol Motor Speedway in 2016 drew 156,990 (or a documented 130,045, according to Guiness World Records).

Jim Harbaugh might be one of the few people in and around Ann Arbor who won’t be in Michigan Stadium on Saturday.

The common opponents

The teams played 7 common opponents — the other 5 B1G East teams plus crossover foes Minnesota and Purdue.

Neither has played No. 17 Iowa (9-2), leaving a tiny bit of intrigue for the Big Ten championship game the following Saturday in Indianapolis.

Michigan beat the common West weaklings 93-23, OSU beat them 78-10. Not much to glean there.

Here’s how it broke down vs. the East:

vs. Indiana: OSU won 23-3, UM won 52-7. The Buckeyes played the Hoosiers in Week 1, when they were fresh and healthy and Kyle McCord was making just his 2nd career start at quarterback.

vs. Michigan State: OSU won 38-3, UM won 49-0. The Buckeyes called off the dogs shortly after halftime, while the Wolverines piled on 21 second-half points.

vs. Rutgers: OSU won 35-16, UM won 31-7. The Scarlet Knights hung tough for a half in both, actually leading the Buckeyes 9-7.

vs. Maryland: OSU won 37-17, UM won 31-24. Michigan looked shaky after taking a 23-3 lead last week. Taulia Tagovailoa rallied the Terps with the passing game. Kyle McCord, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka might be even more effective.

vs. Penn State: OSU won 20-12, UM won 24-15. Both teams patiently outlasted offensively timid Penn State. The Buckeyes had more offensive success against the Lions’ No. 2 ranked defense, netting 365 yards and 22 first downs vs. the Wolverines’ 287 and 15. Neither team committed a turnover against PSU, which leads the country in turnover margin at +17.

The prediction …

From the preseason through the end of October, I liked Michigan in this matchup. It returned a ton of veteran players led by a seasoned quarterback with a 5-star pedigree. It had RB Corum back healthy after hobbling through 2 carries in The Game last year before shutting down his season with a knee injury that required surgery.

But McCarthy hasn’t looked right the past 2 weeks, and hasn’t thrown a TD pass in Michigan’s last 13 quarters. Over that span of 3+ games, OSU’s McCord has 8 TD passes and way more yardage. The 2 defenses rank 1-2 in the nation against the pass, with OSU roughly a half yard per game better than No. 2 Michigan.

Right now, McCord looks like the better QB, even though he’s a first-year starter who didn’t beat out Devin Brown for the job until late August. McCord also has the better receivers in likely first-round NFL picks Harrison and Egbuka.

Michigan’s offensive line, though up for a 3rd straight Joe Moore Award as the best in the nation, isn’t as strong as the past 2 seasons. Corum’s numbers, other than his nation-leading 20 rushing TDs, are down significantly. Edwards are too. The line was not good in pass protection against Penn State, leading Moore to call runs on 32 of the final 33 plays.

In addition to having the better receivers, Ohio State may also have the best back. TreVeyon Henderson, finally fully healthy, has run for 100+ yards in 4 of his past 5 outings. He averages 6.7 yards per carry this season to just 4.9 for Corum.

Michigan has advantages too, of course. A huge one is turnover margin, in which it is +12 while OSU is just +1 on the season. It also has the Free Harbaugh/Michigan Against Everybody thing going on. The raw emotions are as real and intense as they are spurious to the outside world. The Wolverines plan to carry that chip on their shoulder all the way to their first national championship since 1997.

The big question for this game? Is Ohio State’s rush defense better than it was while ceding 252 ground yards to UM in 2022 and 297 in 2021? The Wolverines ran for 227 just 2 weeks ago at Penn State, which has the best run defense in the B1G (No. 4 in the FBS) at less than 80 yards allowed per game. But UM fizzled to just 150 rushing yards last week while scraping by Maryland and its less robust defense.

Coming off blowout victories over Michigan State and Minnesota, Ohio State looks like the fresher team, physically and mentally.

The  everybody  that Michigan is up against would love to see the Wolverines and their espionage story go away until after the Playoff. I think  everybody  gets their wish.

Ohio State 27, Michigan 16