With fall camps open across the country, the season is now within reach. Daily reports from beat writers are fueling small-market moves on national title futures and win totals alike.

So before all the value dries up, I wanted to share the 5 win totals I’m playing this fall and provide some early insight into my Week 0 card.

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Win totals

NC State Over 6.5 (+110 at FanDuel)

This is my favorite play on the board. The Wolfpack’s defense returns virtually everyone, including ACC DPOY candidate Payton Wilson. Down the stretch, the NC State defense really came into its own, knocking off a ranked Liberty team (15-14) and allowing just 20 points per game in their last 5 games. Offensively, the return of QB Devin Leary could be the final puzzle piece for Dave Doeren.

They return every significant skill position player on their 2-deep and they have a potentially dominant offensive line, anchored by Pro Football Focus’ No. 3-ranked interior lineman, Grant Gibson. If they can navigate a tricky road trip to Starkville in Week 2, there’s a good chance this team hits 6 wins by the end of October. That would leave them with road trips to Florida State and Wake Forest and a pair of home tilts against Syracuse and North Carolina to capture that pivotal 7th win.

Tennessee Under 6.5 (-175 at FanDuel)

The juice is all you need to understand here. Sportsbooks have been trying to dissuade the public from fading the Volunteers’ posted number of 6.5, but given the roster turnover, conference schedule and lack of established offensive playmakers, this team screams “under.” This program waved goodbye to 7 4-stars and 7 3-stars in the offseason. That kind of talent drain is setting them up to get overpowered by the vast majority of their conference opponents.

Here’s the list of games I feel confident the Vols will win: Bowling Green, Tennessee Tech, South Carolina. End of list. Even a late-season game against South Alabama isn’t a layup given the Jags’ offensive talent and play-calling talent up in the booth (Major Applewhite). This should be a brutal year on Rocky Top.

Western Kentucky Over 5.5 (+100 at FanDuel)

The Hilltoppers hit the reset button on their program. After a 5-win campaign, the staff at WKU brought in 18 transfers and a handful of new coaches.

The offense is essentially Houston Baptist East after they poached the Huskies’ OC, star QB, star WR and others. Bailey Zappe was a Walter Payton finalist (FCS Heisman) and his receiving corps nearly helped HBU upset Texas Tech on the road last fall (Zappe 567 yards, 4 TDs).

Defensively, WKU can build around pass rusher DeAngelo Malone (25 career sacks) and Antwon Kincade, one of the highest-rated Group of 5 safeties according to Pro Football Focus. Last season, that unit finished 27th in defensive success rate.

As strange as it might sound, a road trip to Army could prove to be the difference on this win total. A win at West Point would set them up to only need 4 C-USA wins. And according to S&P+, they face 5 teams 110th nationally or worse (out of 130) in the conference.

TCU over 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

This is Gary Patterson’s best roster since 2014, when the Horned Frogs came within a hair of the College Football Playoff. They return 92% of their offensive production, a seasoned offensive line, an up-and-coming dual-threat quarterback and a star-studded secondary.

As for the schedule, TCU must travel to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Iowa State, but if they win 1 of those 3, an 8-win season is all but a certainty. Four straight home games and a 4-hour car ride to Lubbock in Week 6 means that Patterson’s bunch won’t be playing a game outside of the Lonestar State until Oct. 16. The home cooking and relatively easy nonconference slate mixed with their hot finish to 2020 (5-1, 15.5 point average margin of victory) have me very bullish on the pride of Fort Worth. I’d also consider them at 14:1 to win the Big 12.

Louisiana Monroe Under 1.5 (-140 at DraftKings)

The Warhawks were a complete tire fire last season and the turnaround will not be swift in Northeast Louisiana. Yes, they have some flashy names on their coaching staff, most notably Terry Bowden and associate head coach/OC RichRod, but the talent simply isn’t there. ULM was winless last season with the nation’s 124th ranked scoring defense, so the fact that they return 8 of those starters does little to move me off of my under position.

Rhett Rodriguez, RichRod’s son, will pilot his father’s famed Zone Read offense, but he’ll have to do it behind a patchwork line that allowed nearly 3 sacks per game last fall (101st). The schedule is rugged, to say the least, with road trips to Kentucky, Coastal Carolina and LSU. Toss in another nonconference game at home against Liberty and it’s unlikely ULM will be favored in more than a single game this entire season (Jackson State). And, for the record, I’ll be playing the Fightin’ Deions on the moneyline in that Week 2 game.

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Week 0 leans

Here’s a scheduling quirk that should come in handy when you’re betting Week 1 of the college football season in 3 weeks. All 7 of the FBS teams that are suiting up on Saturday, August 28, will also be playing the following week. So this is a great scouting opportunity for people interested in betting on LSU’s road trip to Pasadena. Similarly, we’ll learn a great deal about Fresno State’s defensive upgrades a week ahead of its road trip to Oregon in Eugene. It’s said that college football teams make the biggest jump throughout the season between Weeks 1 and 2, so it’s worth keeping an eye on these teams getting a head start on their competition.

UConn-Fresno State over 62.5

According to the preseason S&P+ metrics, UConn enters with the 127th ranked defense. Fresno State, meanwhile, dropped 35 points or more in 4 of its 6 games last fall. The Bulldogs’ offense returns 9 starters, including senior quarterback Jake Haener and a host of skill position starters. Ronnie Rivers, in particular, should have a huge day against the Huskies’ run defense. The last time UConn played a full season, they surrendered 225 yards per game on the ground. This total will really come down to UConn’s ability to move the football. Kevin Mensah returns as the offensive catalyst, towing his 2,619 career rushing yards along with him.

Whether it’s Jack Zergiotis or Steven Krajewski under center, the Huskies will need to hit 20 points for this game to realistically go over the number. I think they get there thanks to their experience on the offensive line and the potential for garbage time drives in the fourth quarter.

Hawai’i-UCLA Under 68.5

Historically a matchup between the Rainbow Warriors and Bruins would scream “over.” But in 2021, I’m actually leaning the other way.

Hawai’i is building an aggressive playmaking defense that was surprisingly efficient against the pass a year ago, while also avoiding consistently getting gashed by big plays.

And UCLA returns its entire back 7 intact, which includes a pair of DBs who will vie for All-Pac-12 honors (Qwuantrezz Knight, Stephan Blaylock). Then there’s the Hawai’i “Mainland” factor to consider. In the past 2 seasons, the ‘Bows have played 9 games in the Lower 48, with 6 of those going under the closing number by an average of 7.1 points per game. Follow the trend and bank on a slow start in the Rose Bowl.

UTEP ML-400

If there ever was a team to fade, it’s New Mexico State. The Aggies are dreadful, checking in dead last or near to it in nearly every major ranking (S&P+, FPI, ELO).

In a year when most teams are filled with super seniors and returning underclassmen, NMSU returns 2 players in total and zero of them on defense. They lost to Tarleton State by 26 points this spring. They needed a 16-point fourth quarter to beat Dixie State, which sounds like a create-a-school team from EA Sports NCAA Football 98. Now UTEP, a program that hasn’t won a conference title since 2000, isn’t a sleeping giant in West Texas by any stretch of the imagination. But they do return 18 starters, and they acquitted themselves quite nicely, even in defeat, during their 3-5 campaign last season.

They have an identity thanks to their one-two punch at halfback in Deion Hankins and Quardraiz Wadley, so I can picture them nearly doubling their rushing average from last season (139 yards) en route to a blowout of lowly New Mexico State. Just tack this ML play onto the rest of your Week 0 bets to flip a standard -110 single-bet into a +135 parlay.