Can SEC break record and top last year’s 9 bowl wins?

Many around college football considered 2015 to be a down year for the SEC. Nobody outside of Alabama finished with fewer than three losses, and the level of play seemed below the conference’s excellent standard.

Nevertheless, the SEC set an NCAA record with nine bowl victories. Of the 11 teams that played in a bowl, only Florida and Texas A&M lost.

Compared to this season, the SEC was much stronger in 2015. While Alabama once again remains on top of the college football world, Auburn is headed to the Sugar Bowl with an 8-4 record. Let that sink in for a moment.

Based on last year’s logic, though, the SEC is setting itself up for an even better bowl season. If a poor regular season equals excellence in bowl games, then there might be a new NCAA record on the horizon.

Okay, that is unlikely to happen. But just for the heck of it, let’s run down the list of the SEC’s 12 bowl games and figure out if there are more than nine wins on the table.

Dec. 26, St. Petersburg Bowl – Mississippi State vs. Miami (OH)

Line: Mississippi State favored by 10.

Skinny: Miami (OH) is one of the nation’s most interesting teams right now. The RedHawks lost their first six games only to go on a six-game win streak to become bowl eligible. Gus Ragland has been great since taking over at quarterback and has 15 touchdowns and no interceptions in six games.

Nick Fitzgerald looks like he’s coming into his own at quarterback for the Bulldogs, though, and Mississippi State should be able to run the ball in this one. Dan Mullen will need to have his defense prepared, but this should be an SEC victory.

Verdict: Win

Dec. 26, Independence Bowl – Vanderbilt vs. N.C. State

Line: N.C. State favored by 4.

Skinny: The Commodores are back in the postseason, and Derek Mason’s squad has played tough against some good teams this year. Vanderbilt will face an interesting challenge against a Wolfpack team that plays good defense, especially against the run.

Containing Matt Dayes (1,119 yards, 10 TDs) will be key for the Commodores. N.C. State’s record is misleading. The Pack lost at Clemson in overtime and lost by four against Florida State. This one could go either way, but Vandy has some nice momentum.

Verdict: Win

Dec. 28, AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl – Texas A&M vs. Kansas State

Line: Texas A&M favored by 2.

Skinny: After a sensational start to the season, the wheels again fell off for the Aggies. Much of the struggles coincided with the loss of quarterback Trevor Knight, but this is not the same team that stormed out to a 6-0 start. Kansas State’s only losses this season came against ranked opponents. The Wildcats have a strong running game and the Big 12’s best defense.

Knight’s status is critical. Without him, or if he’s still limited, this has the potential to be another frustrating loss after a brilliant beginning.

Verdict: Loss

Dec. 29, Birmingham Bowl – South Carolina vs. USF

Line: South Florida favored by 11 (but that was before coach Willie Taggart was named Oregon coach).

Skinny: South Florida knows how to score points. The Bulls averaged 43.6 points per game, good for seventh among all college football teams. Quarterback Quinton Flowers is a poor man’s Lamar Jackson.

Taggart’s departure obviously will impact the Bulls, but it could motivate them, as well.

South Carolina’s defense is good, but its offense might not be able to keep pace in this one.

Verdict: Loss

Dec. 29, Belk Bowl – Arkansas vs. Virginia Tech

Line: Virginia Tech favored by 6.

Skinny: The Hokies had a good first season under coach Justin Fuente and dual-threat quarterback Jerod Evans will pose problems.

It’s hard to predict what type of game Arkansas will play in any given week. Is it the team that ran over Florida in Week 10, or the team that got run over by LSU in Week 11? Bret Bielema has prepared his team well for bowl games in the past two seasons, and he gets the benefit of the doubt here.

Verdict: Win

Dec. 30, Liberty Bowl – Georgia vs. TCU

Line: Pick ’em.

Skinny: Georgia has been a mixed bag under Kirby Smart, which is to be expected with a young team. Fortunately, it is playing a similarly inconsistent team in TCU. The Horned Frogs’ offense has taken a big step back this season, and the defense is merely average.

This could depend entirely on how motivated Georgia is for this game and how clean of a game it can play. Smart’s focus is likely on recruiting right now, which is a good thing for the Bulldogs, and the team may reflect that in this game.

Verdict: Loss

Dec. 30, Music City Bowl – Tennessee vs. Nebraska

Line: Tennessee favored by 3.

Skinny: This is certainly not where Vols fans hoped to be at season’s end, but its where Tennessee finds itself after a disappointing season. Joshua Dobbs has been playing extremely well but so has Nebraska’s defense.

The Cornhuskers aren’t an offensive powerhouse, but nearly everyone has been able to move the ball against Tennessee. It’s a virtual home game for Tennessee, but this one feels like a toss-up, but the Vols’ defense appears to be the biggest weakness among these two teams.

Verdict: Loss

Dec. 31, Citrus Bowl – LSU vs. Louisville

Line: LSU favored by 3.

Skinny: One of the most intriguing matchups of the bowl season, the Citrus Bowl could be a great one. Heisman favorite Lamar Jackson is easily one of the most exciting college football players in the country, but the Cardinals’ offensive line is essentially non-existent and has struggled mightily against good defensive lines. LSU has one of the top defensive lines in the country, and this could get ugly for Jackson.

Verdict: Win

Dec. 31, TaxSlayer Bowl – Kentucky vs. Georgia Tech

Line: Georgia Tech favored by 4.

Skinny: A battle of two very talented rushing attacks, this game could be one of the shortest of all the bowls. Georgia Tech’s offense is difficult to defend due to its unique nature, but the extra time before a bowl should help Kentucky in that regard.

The Yellow Jackets just defeated rival Georgia, which beat Kentucky earlier this season, but the Wildcats have been playing well all season long. Sony Michel had a big game for the Bulldogs against Tech, and Benny Snell and Boom Williams could go off in this one.

Verdict: Win

Dec. 31, CFP Semifinal – Alabama vs. Washington

Line: Alabama favored by 15.

Skinny: Alabama looks like the best team in the country. Even during a sluggish offensive showing by their standards, the Crimson Tide blew out Florida in the SEC Championship Game.

Washington is a prolific passing team that also averaged 210 rushing yards per game. The Huskies are sneaky good, but nobody runs on Alabama, and few pro-style quarterbacks hold up against that pass rush. The Crimson Tide will win this one, but it might be closer than people think.

Verdict: Win

Jan. 2, Outback Bowl – Florida vs. Iowa

Line: Florida favored by 2.

Skinny: Everything about this matchup screams low-scoring, defensive battle. For some fans, that’s exactly what they want in a football game. For most, however, that is the perfect mix for a dull three-plus hours.

Florida is averaging just 23.4 points per game, and Iowa is scoring just a field goal more. Both defenses are holding opponents to exactly 17.9 points. It feels like the first team to 17 points could win this one, and Iowa’s offense is just a bit better.

The Hawkeyes don’t want it to come down to field goals, though. They’ve made just 9 of 12 this season. Eddy Pineiro is 18-for-22 for the Gators.

Verdict: Loss

Jan. 2, Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs. Oklahoma

Line: Oklahoma favored by 5.

Skinny: If Auburn is healthy, which it should be in this game, the Sugar Bowl could be a really good matchup. The Tigers’ defense is among the best in the nation, and the offense was red-hot before injuries took their toll.

Oklahoma, however, is one of the nation’s top teams and has an elite offense. Baker Mayfield and Dede Westbrook are Heisman finalists, and Joe Mixon gives the Sooners one of the best trios in college football.

Verdict: Loss

The final tally …

As of now, the SEC looks like it could be headed towards a 6-6 record in bowl games this season (or possibly 7-6 or 6-7 depending on how Alabama does in the Playoff).

Last season, the conference rebounded from a down year with a dominant showing in its bowl games. That changed the conversation somewhat. These are still just projections, and anything can happen, but a massive turnaround would be surprising.