Is this finally Lane Kiffin’s time?

I’ve been asking myself that question since Sunday morning. And honestly,I don’t have a definitive answer as I sit and write my final thoughts on Saturday’s Alabama-Ole Miss showdown in Tuscaloosa.

Whether he says it publicly or not, beating Nick Saban for the first time would become Kiffin’s top accomplishment as a head coach. So far, he’s 0-4 (0-3 at Ole Miss, 0-1 at Tennessee). Three of those 4 losses came by 2 scores or less.

Will Saturday be different? It certainly feels different. At No. 13, this is easily the lowest that a Saban-coached team has been ranked against Kiffin. Even a week after suffering loss No. 2 last year at LSU, Alabama still sat at No. 10 in the AP Poll. Last week’s dud at USF felt like a second loss for the Tide, but it wasn’t.

Technically, everything is still on the table for Alabama. It can still win the SEC West, reach the Playoff and win a title. Is anyone etching that in stone right now? Not exactly. That conversation becomes a moot point with a loss to Ole Miss.

Will that happen? And will Kiffin finally take down his former boss?

Let’s dig into it:

1. So now it’s back to Jalen Milroe, huh?

Here’s my theory. It’s not anything earth-shattering, so don’t sound the alarms.

After the Texas loss, I believe Nick Saban wanted to see what he had in Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson. I believe that while Saban said that Simpson had the best week of practice, OC Tommy Rees wanted the chance to run his offense with the guy he helped bring in from Notre Dame. If Buchner or Simpson had set the world on fire, they’d be starting. They didn’t. At all.

So why didn’t Milroe come into the game against USF when it was far too close for comfort? Saban wanted to see how Simpson would respond in that situation. You can’t simulate that. Shoot, you can’t even go live with your quarterbacks in practice to see how they handle getting hit, which happened to Simpson on seemingly every drop-back.

The benefit of Saban making that move was that even if both of his signal-callers looked horrendous, which they were, he got to perhaps light a fire under Milroe. At the very least, he got to see how Milroe would handle some adversity. All signs indicate that he passed that test:

Credit to Milroe. In this era of the transfer portal, it’s not a given that guys will respond like that.

It’s also not a given that Milroe will suddenly stop making head-scratching mistakes. Predetermining reads won’t work against an Ole Miss defense that ranks No. 25 in yards/play allowed so far.

Speaking of that Ole Miss defense …

2. Pete Golding will get nothing but love from the Alabama faithful in his return

Kidding, of course.

I don’t know who is calling plays on the Alabama defense — Kiffin caused quite the stir by suggesting it wasn’t DC Kevin Steele — but I sure as heck know who’ll be doing that on the Ole Miss side.

You thought the sky was falling in Tuscaloosa when it played in a horrifically ugly game against USF. Just wait for the panic to set in if Alabama can’t move the ball against Golding in his return to Bryant-Denny Stadium. It won’t just be “the dynasty is dead.” It’ll be “the program is dead.”

While Golding will be facing a new-look Alabama offense, remember that he saw plenty of Milroe. More than any defensive coordinator in the sport, one would think that Golding would understand Milroe’s strengths and weaknesses. Disguising pressure packages and preventing Milroe from getting loose with his legs or stepping into a deep shot downfield will be priority No. 1.

Golding will only accomplish that if he’s got a unit that’s up for the task. So far, so good. After Mercer’s Carter Peevy had that 75-yard touchdown run on Golding’s first play running Ole Miss’ defense — something Kiffin playfully jabbed his DC about after the fact — Ole Miss hasn’t allowed a quarterback run longer than 10 yards. Mind you, one of those games was against former Texas A&M starter Haynes King, who is plenty capable of getting loose.

The most encouraging thing from Ole Miss’ defense so far is its ability to get offenses behind schedule. Through Week 3, 18 Ole Miss players registered a tackle for loss. Leading that charge is James Madison transfer Isaac Ukwu. He’s been excellent up front. Through 3 games, he has 10 tackles and a team-high 3 tackles for loss and 2 sacks.

Also of significance? The 24-year-old might be playing in his first SEC game, but he seems to understand the task at hand:

No bulletin board material there. Golding’s group should know what it’s in for on Saturday afternoon.

3. Jaxson Dart is playing out of his mind

I’ll be honest. I entered the year with major Dart skepticism. I thought Spencer Sanders would win the starting job and even when he didn’t, I still was in “wait and see” mode with Dart because of how drastic his splits were against quality competition compared to not-so-quality competition.

But man, Dart has been phenomenal so far.

Think about this. He’s leading the No. 4 offense in America with some eye-popping numbers:

  • 202.5 QB rating (No. 1 in SEC, No. 6 in FBS)
  • 12.5 yards/attempt (No. 1 in SEC, T-No. 1 in FBS)
  • 22 passing plays of 20 yards (No. 1 in SEC, No. 2 in FBS)
  • 213 rushing yards (No. 1 among SEC QBs, No. 7 among FBS QBs)

Mind you, he did that with Tre Harris being sidelined after his breakout start while fellow decorated transfer pass-catchers Caden Prieskorn and Zakhari Franklin have both been banged up to start the year. The hope is that all 3 will be out there catching passes from Dart, though it might not matter if he plays at the level he’s been at so far.

And look a little deeper. Dart’s decision-making has been excellent. He only has 1 interception this year, and in critical moments, his play has been elite.

The final score against Tulane didn’t tell the full story. On 4th-and-4 with Ole Miss up 3 at Tulane, Dart escaped what should’ve been a sack and kept his eyes up to find Michael Trigg for a dagger touchdown.

No panic. He looks like he has total comfort in Year 2 running Kiffin’s offense.

He’s also the team’s leading rusher. Like, on a team with preseason All-American Quinshon Judkins also on it. Part of that is because teams have sold out to stop the sophomore back. Dart has been incredible on quarterback keepers, which was on full display when Judkins was banged up against Georgia Tech when the Ole Miss quarterback racked up 139 rushing yards on 14 carries.

It’s too early to say that Dart is the second coming of 2021 Matt Corral. Plus, Corral had his worst game of the season against Alabama in Tuscaloosa, though it was a much more proven Tide defense than the one that Dart will face Saturday.

If Dart continues his hot start, it’s time to put him in the Heisman discussion.

4. I still think Quinshon Judkins vs. the Alabama defense is a strength-on-strength matchup

You’ll notice that I wrote “still.” So far, the 2023 numbers don’t indicate that Judkins or the Alabama defense is a strength.

Judkins has been limited to 145 rushing yards through 3 games. That’s just No. 16 in the SEC, and his longest run of the season went for 13 yards. ESPN reported last Saturday morning that Judkins was doubtful, but he still played against Georgia Tech. He wasn’t particularly effective with 13 rushes for 37 yards. His single-game high so far is 60 rushing yards, which he exceeded all but once last season. The guy who averaged 5.9 yards per carry as a freshman sensation is at just 3.3 yards per carry in 2023.

Healthy or not, there’s clearly been a priority to contain the dynamic sophomore. Ole Miss has tried to get creative with him. Judkins played 3 snaps as a Wildcat quarterback, 8 snaps in the slot and 5 snaps as an outside receiver. It wouldn’t be surprising if there were more unique looks for Judkins to move him around the formation, and it’s worth noting that he had multiple catches in all 3 games this year, which matched his 2022 regular season total. Back in his home state of Alabama, Judkins would love nothing more than to repeat last year’s 28-touch day for 149 scrimmage yards and 2 scores.

Slow start or not, that’s not a given against Alabama’s front even amid that group’s slow start. Through 3 games, Alabama is a pedestrian No. 57 in FBS against the run and No. 45 in yards/carry allowed. More alarming was how effectively South Florida ran the ball. Surrendering 171 yards on the ground to a team riding an FBS losing streak of 19 games was wild.

Seeing plays like this against Alabama’s once-feared defense was … something.

To be fair, the guy who delivered the boom was former Florida running back Nay’Quan Wright. It’s not like walk-on FCS players are making a mockery of the Alabama defense.

But with all the questions that Kiffin stirred up surrounding Steele as the team’s primary play-caller, it’s fair to wonder how that group will respond. Alabama shuffled things around on the interior defensive line with Tim Smith taking over for Jaheim Oatis in the USF game, and he had 9 tackles, which was second only to Deontae Lawson. Lawson, Chris Braswell and Dallas Turner have all been solid so far, but the Alabama strength is still more about getting after the quarterback than getting an offense off-schedule.

Perhaps the biggest thing working in favor of Alabama’s front is that the Ole Miss offensive line had some tough moments in those first 2 games. It could be a “get-right” game for that group.

Or perhaps Judkins will channel his inner Wright and deliver the knockout punch to the Tide.

5. Is there any 1 thing that Alabama does at an elite level? And will it show itself?

The answer is “no.” Unlike last year or the year before when you could point to Bryce Young and say “go get us out of a mess,” Alabama doesn’t have that this year. What’s the identity of this team? “Joyless murderball” teams typically run the football better than the No. 58 team in the country. There’s definitely not anything in the passing game that Alabama does at an elite level. Defensively, I already outlined the issues defending the run, and Quinn Ewers showed us that the Tide don’t exactly have a feared secondary.

Oh, I’ve got it!

Alabama is elite at having touchdowns wiped off the board because of penalties. That already happened 4 times this year. That’s for a team that ranks No. 59 in penalties/game. Hey, that’s an improvement after last year’s squad was No. 126 in that department.

It’s strange, though.

Alabama might only have 1 guy (Kool-Aid McKinstry) who you’d consider an obvious first-round pick. That feels bizarre for a team that’s still stockpiled with as much talent as anybody in the country. Maybe it’s premature to say that and it’s just been a slow start for a team with major roster turnover and a pair of new coordinators. That’s possible.

It does feel like if Alabama has any chance of staying in the West race, we’re gonna know by day’s end.

And a prediction … Alabama 31, Ole Miss 28

I hate myself for this pick because I spent 2,000 words explaining how Ole Miss has been the better team. There’s no denying that. If Ole Miss pulls out a win in Tuscaloosa, I won’t be the least bit shocked.

But here’s what I can’t get over. When I close my eyes, I can’t picture 2-2 Alabama. I can’t picture a world in which Pete Golding gets the last laugh against the Crimson Tide and the SEC West suddenly runs through Ole Miss. I can’t picture a world in which Saban is sitting there with 2 September losses, both coming at home to his former assistants.

That’s my issue.

If Alabama can’t win this one, throw out all the pre-2023 logic when it comes to projecting this team’s performance. If this doesn’t turn the Tide, nothing will.

Will it be pretty? Nope. I expect the Tide to be trailing in the 4th quarter, and Ole Miss’ front will force Milroe into an interception and a lost fumble. But with the entire season hanging in the balance in the final minute, Milroe will find Isaiah Bond for a 40-yard touchdown that sends an on-edge Alabama crowd into a frenzy. Kiffin is left at a loss for words that he let another opportunity slip through his fingers.

The Tide doesn’t roll, but it does just enough to avoid a catastrophic second loss.