The truth lies in Jacksonville — Georgia is the ultimate measuring stick for Florida.

Since Year 2 of the Kirby Smart era, that’s been a reality for the Gators. Even when Florida got over the hump in 2020, the questions about the Gators’ upside were directly related to how that offense would perform against the 3-time defending East champs.

The irony is that since that 2020 game, the programs have gone in totally different directions.

Since 2020 UF-UGA
Florida
Georgia
Overall record
21-19
40-1
SEC record
12-13
23-0
Wins vs. AP Top 25
2
13
Wins vs. AP Top 10
1
8

That 2020 game was more like Florida’s apex instead of its launching point. Alternatively, suffering loss No. 2 and missing out on a division title by early November was the valley of Kirby Smart’s past 6 1/2 seasons in Athens.

Since that game, Georgia won 35 consecutive games in which it hit 27 points. Is another one of those in store on Saturday?

Let’s dig in with some final thoughts (and a prediction) on the 2023 edition of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party:

1. Let’s start with the biggest question — what should we expect from Brock Bowers-less UGA passing attack?

A few things.

To sit here and say that the Dawgs will be business as usual without arguably the best player in the sport would be a slap in the face to … the best player in the sport. Bowers is a complete tight end who’ll be greatly missed as an elite pass-catcher who makes people miss in space, and as a top-notch run-blocker who sets the tone in that tight end room.

Speaking of that tight end room, Oscar Delp will have plenty of eyes on him. The No. 1 tight end in the 2022 class has a prime opportunity after the first 2/3 of his career was spent playing behind the likes of Bowers and Darnell Washington. He’s stepping into an every-down role, though with 259 snaps through 7 games, he’s been a whole lot closer to your typical TE2. That’s because we know how much this offense loves to operate out of 2-tight end sets.

That means in addition to Delp likely being called on more often — he’s never had more than 3 catches and 32 yards against SEC competition — the expectation is that true freshman Lawson Luckie will have a more prominent role. That’s a tall task for someone who shined as an early enrollee, but is still someone with 3 career routes run at the college level. He returned to the lineup against Kentucky after, ironically enough, experiencing the same ankle surgery that Bowers had.

In addition to the tight end room, one would think that this is when UGA’s decorated transfer receivers Dominic Lovett and RaRa Thomas become go-to options for Carson Beck. That’s been a bit touch and go so far, but Lovett had his best game in a UGA uniform once Bowers went out against Vandy, and Thomas has seen his snap count continue to increase since the start of the season, with his best game coming a week earlier against Kentucky.

Nobody in America has better embraced the “next-man-up” mentality than Georgia. Continuing that ahead of this daunting stretch could be a challenge even greater than replacing Nolan Smith after his midseason injury last year. Much of that will depend on quarterback play.

Speaking of that …

2. Don’t forget the Carson Beck homecoming/revenge game for Florida

Remember when Beck was a recruit and he admitted that he named Florida as his “leader” to try and get an offer from Georgia? I do. In case you forgot, here’s that clip from 5 years ago:

Yeah, you can say that Saturday will mean a lot to the Jacksonville native.

Does that mean Beck will need to calm himself with maybe a little too much mustard on the fastball early on? Will he be a bit too reckless in an attempt to turn everything into a home-run play?

Bowers’ absence will magnify the importance of Beck’s maturity. It’s not just that he needs to put faith in other players in the passing game. It’s that he needs to lead a team that’s entering a defining time. So far, all indications are that Beck has passed that test.

And sure, it’s not that UGA’s entire offensive game plan is built around the passing attack. It hasn’t been a vintage Georgia rushing attack, but it’s still been plenty effective at 5 yards per carry with 19 rushing scores, which is No. 2 in the SEC. Outside of that rough game in the trenches against Auburn, UGA picked up at least 170 rushing yards in its other 3 SEC games. Continuing that trend would take some pressure off of Beck.

Still, though. Much like his predecessor Stetson Bennett IV, Beck will be tasked with making some big-time throws that could define how happy of a homecoming it is.

3. Can Florida flip the script on last year’s biggest struggle in Jacksonville?

If you had told Florida fans last year that the Gators would go into Jacksonville and force 3 turnovers while holding Bennett to 50% passing, they would’ve bear-hugged you and assumed a win was imminent. It wasn’t though. Why? Just like we saw throughout 2022, stopping the run was next to impossible. The Gators were No. 100 in run defense, and 4 of those 29 rushing touchdowns allowed came from the Dawgs.

This year, however, there’s more hope that Florida should stand a chance at stopping the Georgia ground attack instead of surrendering 239 rushing yards.

As bad as the Gators looked against Ray Davis in Lexington earlier in the season, that’s really the only game in which they were gashed repeatedly. In 5 of 7 games, they held their opponent to 105 rushing yards or less. The last time we saw Florida, South Carolina had some success with Mario Anderson, but 152 rushing yards was a far cry from that Kentucky dud.

This is a prime opportunity for Memphis transfer Cam Jackson to make his mark, much like he did in the Tennessee victory. Jackson has 17 run stops this season (PFF) and has been a major difference-maker up front. Along with the emerging Caleb Banks, Florida has a real shot at containing the UGA rushing attack. That doesn’t mean Georgia will lack chunk plays, but forcing Beck into some key 3rd-and-longs would go a long way toward keeping Florida competitive for 60 minutes.

4. Graham Mertz against elite foes in his career has been __________.

“Mostly underwhelming … so far.”

Against teams that finished in the AP Top 25, here’s the year-by-year breakdown of Mertz (2023 is based on teams who are in the AP Top 25 heading into Week 9):

  • 2020 (at Wisconsin): 63-113, 601 yards, 5.3 yards/attempt, 1-5 TD-INT
  • 2021: 37-78, 459 yards, 5.9 YPA, 3-4 TD-INT
  • 2022: 11-20, 94 yards, 4.7 YPA, 1-1 TD-INT
  • 2023 (at Florida): 50-68, 499 yards, 7.3 YPA, 2-1 TD-INT
  • TOTAL: 161-279, 1,653 yards, 5.9 YPA, 7-11 TD-INT

In Mertz’s defense, he wasn’t the reason that the Gators lost at Utah. I’d also argue he wasn’t the driving force in the Tennessee win — the ground game and defense did the heavy lifting — but he didn’t turn the ball over and he completed 79% of his passes.

What’s undeniable is that Mertz is playing better at Florida than he ever did at Wisconsin. Even as a Mertz skeptic, I can admit that he’s been much better than I gave him credit for. He and Beck have nearly identical quarterback ratings, they both have 12 touchdown passes and Mertz has 2 fewer interceptions than his counterpart. Of course, Beck also has much more favorable surroundings.

But that doesn’t matter on Saturday. All that matters is that Mertz delivers the game of his career because that’s what it’ll take to hand UGA its first regular season loss in 3 years.

Since the start of 2020, the list of QBs to beat Georgia is about as exclusive as it gets:

  • Kyle Trask, Florida
  • Mac Jones, Alabama
  • Bryce Young, Alabama

And if you want to bump it out to “the last 4 quarterbacks to beat UGA,” well, add 2019 Joe Burrow.

It’s elite company. It would be no small feat for Mertz to join it.

5. Don’t forget what a win would mean for Florida

So here’s a wild thought — Florida is 60 minutes from taking control of the SEC East.

I know, I know. The rest of the schedule still features trips to LSU and Mizzou, so even if Florida pulls off the upset in Jacksonville, the odds of a trip to Atlanta probably still aren’t great.

But at the same time, think about what that would mean. The first Playoff poll comes out Tuesday night. Suddenly, Florida would be looking at potentially a top-15 ranking as a 2-loss team with one of the most impressive wins of anyone in the sport. Two years removed from simply trying to avoid a shutout in the final days of the Dan Mullen era, that would signal progress in a way that few could’ve anticipated in September.

It’s one thing to be heading in the right direction against a quality opponent. That can be seen in a competitive game in Jacksonville. But to flip the script that quickly against the Dawgs amid a historic run would expedite that process as much as any individual result can in Year 2 of the Napier era.

And a prediction … Georgia 27, Florida 20

The overwhelming preseason sentiment that this would be a lopsided matchup should, at the very least, be in question. Florida is coming off what felt like a pivotal comeback win at South Carolina and the Billy Napier offense has never looked better. Juxtapose that with a Georgia team that has been involved in 3 closer-than-expected SEC games against teams with a combined conference record of 1-12, and that was mostly with a healthy Bowers.

If you’re saying that Florida doesn’t have a chance to make this a 60-minute game, you haven’t been paying attention. A slow start seems possible for the 2-time defending champs. Dare I say, Florida will even go to the locker room with a 10-7 lead that’ll have us wondering if the Dawgs are doomed in a Bowers-less world.

But I see Florida having 2 first-half possessions that it’ll want back. Maybe it’s a 4th-and-goal attempt from the 1-yard line that gets pushed back because of a Florida false start. Perhaps we see the Gators get a short field off a turnover that they can’t turn into points. It’ll be a couple of little things that prevent Florida from being in an even more favorable spot entering the half, and ultimately, that proves costly when Georgia roars back in the third quarter.

It won’t be a Heisman-worthy performance from Beck, but his coming-of-age poise will be on display down the stretch, much like we saw in the Auburn game. Instead of putting the clamps on UGA late, the Dawgs’ offense gets the last laugh on a late score to Lovett to put the game away.

For the first time since 2020, we get a competitive Cocktail Party. Cheers to that. But unlike that game from 3 years ago, this doesn’t prove to be the day that Florida overtakes Georgia.