Florida vs. Alabama preview: Player prop bet picks

Florida will battle Alabama in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament on Friday night.

These teams have already met twice this year, with each team claiming one victory during the regular season. Both Florida and Alabama have SEC Tournament title aspirations as they look to build their NCAA Tournament résumés.

After breaking down the data and what happened in previous meetings, here’s 3 player prop bet picks for this game:

Mark Sears over 21.5 points (-114) | via FanDuel

This will be Alabama’s third meeting against Florida in the last month. Sears has gone over this total in both of those matchups against the Gators, and a big reason why has been his performance at the free throw line. Sears went 15-for-17 at the charity stripe across those 2 matchups against Florida. That’s a trend that could continue as Sears averaged 6.3 free throw attempts per game this season. Florida has also been known to commit fouls — it has a free throw rate allowed of 33.8%, which ranks outside the top-200 nationally. Sears is also an elite 3-point shooter and should have plenty of field goal attempts in this game.

Walter Clayton over 18.5 points (-115) | via DraftKings

Alabama has yet to figure out Walter Clayton in either of its previous matchups this year. Clayton scored 27 on the Tide in an overtime loss on Feb. 23 and then 22 in a win on March 5. Clayton leads all Florida guards in usage rate and 3-point attempts so far this season. He’s also been excellent at the free throw line and is facing an Alabama defense that has put him on the line for 21 attempts over their previous 2 meetings against him. The Tide’s defense has been abysmal for more than a month now, and Clayton seems to be in prime position to put up some points on Friday night.

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Tyrese Samuel over 7.5 rebounds (-110) | Via DraftKings

Tyrese Samuel has an offensive rebounding rate of 11.6% so far this season, which is a very strong number. Alabama is not a good defensive rebounding team — it ranks 229th in that category this season, according to KenPom. Samuel is arguably Florida’s best rebounder, especially as Micah Handlogten’s minutes have declined over the last couple of weeks. Handlogten played just 10 minutes against Georgia on Thursday as Samuel came down with 15 rebounds. That’s an outlier performance on the boards for Samuel, but he’s definitely capable of getting to 8 against an Alabama team that isn’t great in that area.