Vanderbilt looked very much like a bowl team Saturday in its 38-17 rout of Ole Miss.

That’s appropriate because it’s looking more and more like the Commodores will be a bowl team even if they don’t become “bowl eligible” per se.

Vandy is 5-6 going into its finale Saturday against 8-3 Tennessee at home. The Commodores are a decided underdog, but they can look to their lofty Academic Progress Rate score to get into a bowl. (The Top 20 APR scores are below.)

There are 40 bowls, meaning they need 80 teams to fill them. Entering this week, there are 65 bowl-eligible teams (meaning their records will be at least 6-6), 15 short of the number of teams needed to fill the bowl slots.

There are 18 more teams that still have a shot at getting to 6-6, including 17 that are a win away this week. But it’s highly unlikely that many of those middling teams will get to six wins (after all, they are, at best, .500 teams).

If there aren’t 80 teams with at least 6-6 records, the next step is to go to the 5-7 teams. Per NCAA rules, the 5-7 teams that get in will be determined by the ones with the best APR scores. That leaves Vanderbilt, with the third best score among the borderline teams, sitting pretty.

And watch out for Mississippi State, which has the 11th-best score among the borderline teams. If the Bulldogs can win the Egg Bowl and several dominoes fall in front of them (like, say, 4-7 teams like Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse and UCLA losing and a few of the 5-6 teams like Vandy and Northwestern winning), then perhaps they can end up with one of the few 5-7 spots.

What’s the big picture for the bowls? We break it down below:

American Athletic

Qualified (7): South Florida (9-2), Houston (9-2), Navy (8-2), Temple (8-3), Tulsa (8-3), Memphis (7-4), Central Florida (6-5).

Still hoping (2): SMU (5-6, vs. Navy), Cincinnati (4-7, at Tulsa).

Outlook: It’s not looking good for any additional teams getting bowl eligible as both borderline teams are decided underdogs and SMU’s APR isn’t near a place where it might get rewarded.

ACC

Qualified (9): Clemson (10-1), Louisville (9-2), Virginia Tech (8-3), North Carolina (8-3), Florida State (8-3), Miami (7-4), Pittsburgh (7-4), Georgia Tech (7-4), Wake Forest (6-5).

Still hoping (4): North Carolina State (5-6, at North Carolina), Boston College (5-6, at Wake Forest) Duke (4-7, at Miami), Syracuse (4-7, at Pitt).

Outlook: Duke has the best APR but a tough opponent. The best chance here might be through a lofty APR for Boston College as all four are going to be road underdogs this week.

Big 12

Qualified (5): Oklahoma (9-2), Oklahoma State (9-2), West Virginia (8-2), Kansas State (6-4), Baylor (6-4).

Still hoping (3): TCU (5-5), Texas (5-6), Texas Tech (4-7).

Outlook: The Big 12 still has two weeks of a full schedule without a championship game. Either Texas or TCU will be bowl eligible as they play each other this week. If TCU doesn’t win that one, it has a tough finale against Kansas State. Texas Tech has a winnable home game against Baylor, but could be doomed by a mediocre APR score.

Big Ten

Qualified (7): Michigan (10-1), Ohio State (10-1), Wisconsin (9-2), Penn State (9-2), Nebraska (9-2), Minnesota (8-3), Iowa (7-4).

Still hoping (3): Indiana (5-6, vs. 3-8 Purdue), Maryland (5-6, vs. 2-9 Rutgers), Northwestern (5-6, vs. 3-8 Illinois).

Outlook: There’s a good chance for three more bowl eligible teams here as all three borderline teams will be the favorite in their finales at home.

Conference USA

Qualified (4): Western Kentucky (8-3), Old Dominion (8-3), Louisiana Tech (8-3), Middle Tennessee (7-4).

Still hoping (5): Texas-San Antonio (5-6, vs. Charlotte), North Texas (5-6, at 3-8 UTEP), Southern Mississippi (5-6, vs. Louisiana Tech), Florida International (4-7, at Old Dominion), Charlotte (4-7, at UTSA).

Outlook: UTSA and North Texas will both be favored in their finales and North Texas could back in even with a loss because of its high APR score. FIU and Charlotte don’t have APR scores that appear to give them a chance even if they win.

Independents

Qualified (2): BYU (7-4), Army (6-5).

Still hoping (1): Notre Dame (4-7, at 8-3 USC)

Outlook: The question is, even if Notre Dame stuns the CFP No. 12 Trojans and their decent APR gets them an invitation, would a 5-7 Irish team accept a bid to a lower-tier bowl? One would doubt it.

MAC

Qualified (5): Western Michigan (11-0), Toledo (9-2), Ohio (7-4), Central Michigan (6-5), Eastern Michigan (6-5).

Still hoping (4): Miami (5-6, vs. Ball State), Akron (5-6, at Ohio), Northern Illinois (4-7, at 3-8 Kent State), Ball State (4-7, at Miami).

Outlook: Miami (Ohio) will be a home favorite against Ball State while Akron has a tough one at Ohio. Of the potential 5-7 teams, Northern Illinois and Miami both are among the top 20 APR scores among the contenders, but they would need a lot of dominoes to fall their way.

Mountain West

Qualified (6): Boise State (10-1), San Diego State (9-2), Wyoming (8-3), Air Force (8-3), New Mexico (7-4), Colorado State (6-5).

Still hoping (3): Hawaii (5-7, vs. 2-9 UMass), UNLV (4-7, vs. Nevada), Nevada (4-7, vs. UNLV).

Outlook: None of the three borderline teams can get to .500 for automatic bowl eligibility and none have particularly high APR scores.

Pac-12

Qualified (6): Washington (10-1), Colorado (9-2), Washington State (8-3), Stanford (8-3), USC (8-3), Utah (8-3).

Still hoping (4): Arizona State (5-6, at 2-9 Arizona), California (4-7, vs. UCLA), Oregon (4-7, at 3-8 Oregon State), UCLA (4-7, at Cal).

Outlook: If UCLA wins, it’s not inconceivable its APR can get it a bowl berth. Oregon isn’t far behind, but it’s a long shot. Arizona State might be a favorite against Arizona, but the Sun Devils have looked bad in five straight losses, so it’s hardly an automatic on the road.

SEC

Qualified (10): Alabama (11-0), Florida (8-2), Tennessee (8-3), Auburn (8-3), Texas A&M (8-3), Georgia (7-4), Arkansas (7-4) LSU (6-4), Kentucky (6-5), South Carolina (6-5).

Still hoping (3): Vanderbilt (5-6, vs. Tennessee), Ole Miss (5-6 vs. Mississippi State), Mississippi State (4-7, at Ole Miss).

Outlook: Vandy’s strong APR gives it a great bowl shot with or without an upset of Tennessee. If Mississippi State knocks Ole Miss out in the Egg Bowl, it’ll be interesting to see if enough dominoes fall for the Bulldogs, who have a pretty good APR too.

Sun Belt

Qualified (4): Arkansas State (6-4), Appalachian State (8-3), Troy (8-2), Idaho (6-4).

Still hoping (5): South Alabama (5-5), Louisiana-Lafayette (4-6), Georgia Southern (4-7), Louisiana-Monroe (4-7), New Mexico State (3-7).

Outlook: Like the Big 12, the SBC has two weeks left to play. South Alabama goes to Idaho and hosts New Mexico State so win No. 6 isn’t automatic, but certainly can be achieved. UL-Lafayette needs to upset Arkansas State at home, then win at UL-Monroe to get to 6-6.

Ranking the APRs

The following are the top APR scores of the teams with a shot at finishing 5-7. Some will fail to get a fifth win while others may will get to six wins and be bowl eligible without needing the APR score, so just because your team may be far down the list, doesn’t mean they have no chance.

  1.  Duke (4-7) 995
  2. Northwestern (5-6) 992
  3. Vanderbilt (5-6) 990
  4. North Texas (5-6) 984
  5. Boston College (5-6) 981
  6. Indiana (5-6) 979
  7. Maryland (5-6) 977
  8. Notre Dame (4-7) 975
  9. Syracuse (4-7) 973
  10. UCLA (4-7) 972
  11. Mississippi State (4-7) 971
  12. Hawaii (5-7) 971
  13. Texas (5-6) 971
  14. Northern Illinois (4-7) 970
  15. Miami (Ohio) (5-6) 969
  16. N.C. State (5-6) 969
  17. Oregon (4-7) 969
  18. Cincinnati (4-7) 967
  19. Louisiana-Monroe (4-7) 967
  20. Arizona State (5-6) 960