Best Week 7 SEC picks and ATS predictions
Last week was another 1-1 showing, bringing my season-long record to 4-8. I was on Ole Miss (-18 at Vanderbilt) and Auburn (+30 at Georgia), invoking the age-old principle that “the backdoor giveth and the back door taketh away.”
Three SEC teams are on bye this week (Missouri, South Carolina and Texas A&M) leaving just six games on the docket. The slate starts with Auburn at Ole Miss at noon pm ET on Saturday and wraps up with Mississippi State at Kentucky at 7:30 pm ET.
Most books have Tennessee an underdog by at least 7 points against Alabama this week. Barstool’s risk-free $1,000 bet is a great way to dip your toes into betting the Vols for the first time. New users get your first bet refunded, up to $1,000, if you lose the bet. Barstool Sportsbook is live in Tennessee. Click here to get started.
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The table below sets out the odds for all the Week 6 games involving SEC teams (odds from Caesars Sportsbook Louisiana). Under the table, find my favorite bets of the week.
Week 7 SEC Odds
Pick 1: Kentucky +6.5 (-110) vs. Mississippi State
Kentucky is coming off back-to-back losses, and the most recent was truly abhorrent: a 24-14 home loss to South Carolina as 10.5-point chalk.
But can everyone please remind themselves that QB Will Levis didn’t play?
Freshman Kaiya Sheron started in his place and looked like a freshman. He was just 15/27 for 178 yards, 2 TDs and a pick. All signs point to Levis returning in Week 7 — he’s back practicing and flat-out said he would play — and that completely changes the complexion of this Kentucky offense. Levis is a legit first-round NFL Draft pick. Far from a perfect college QB, he’s still miles ahead of his freshman understudy.
Heading into last week, Kentucky was the No. 13 team in the nation. The Wildcats owned a road win over Florida and their only loss was at unbeaten Ole Miss in a heartbreaker.
Should the defense have been better against South Carolina? Yes, undoubtedly. The absence of Levis doesn’t explain giving up 179 rushing yards to the Gamecocks. But at the end of the year, I believe we’ll look back and see that ugly Week 6 performance as an anomaly.
This pick isn’t meant to take anything away from Mississippi State. The 5-1 Bulldogs are coming off back-to-back blowout victories — 42-24 vs Texas A&M and 40-17 vs Arkansas — and should be given credit.
But both of those games came at home. The last time we saw Mississippi State on the road, they lost 31-16 to LSU. Now oddsmakers expect them to roll into Lexington and win by at least a touchdown? That’s giving the Bulldogs too much credit, and the Wildcats too little.
Pick 2: Tennessee +7.5 (-115) vs. Alabama
As of Wednesday morning, it’s still unclear whether Bryce Young is going to return for Alabama’s trip to Knoxville. If he does, his shoulder is unlikely to be 100%. If he doesn’t, freshman Jalen Milroe will get his second start.
Either way, there’s a strong chance that Alabama’s passing game is going to be depleted, and that’s joyous news for Tennessee fans. The Vols’ secondary remains their weak link. Even with games against Ball State and Akron under their belt, Tennessee ranks 128th nationally in passing yards allowed (307.4 per game). (Curiously, the bend-don’t-break Vols have only allowed 6 passing TDs — tied for 26th-fewest in the country.)
Their rush defense, on the other hand, has been excellent. No opponent has averaged more than 3.6 yards per carry this season. While Florida ended with 141 yards on the ground, the Gators needed 42 attempts to get there. They’ve also only allowed 5 rushing TDs.
If Alabama’s game plan looks similar to last week’s underwhelming 24-20 home victory over Texas A&M – in which Milroe attempted just 19 passes – Tennessee’s defense should be able to keep the Tide in check.
Hendon Hooker and the Tennessee offense have been nothing short of dynamic this year, especially of late. They’ve surpassed 500 total yards in each of their past 3 games. Arguably the most impressive part is the balance. Against Florida and LSU in Weeks 5 and 6, the rushing attack had over 220 yards and averaged 5.4 yards per carry.
Hooker, meanwhile, is averaging 286.4 passing yards per game with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions on the season. He’s become the 3rd-favorite in the Heisman odds at most sportsbooks (trailing Ohio State’s CJ Stroud and USC’s Caleb Williams).
I believe the Vols have a real chance to pull the upset here and will certainly take the 7.5 points on offer in the Week 7 college football odds.
