Predicting the 2026 Playoff: No. 1 Ohio State
By Adam Spencer
Published:
And now we reach the end of our journey.
We’ve counted down the 11 teams we think will occupy the Nos. 12-2 seeds in the 2026 College Football Playoff, leaving only 1 spot — the top spot.
The team we’ve chosen is no stranger to the spotlight, having won the first 12-team Playoff in 2024. Yes, the Ohio State Buckeyes are the 1-seed in our projections. Let’s dive into what will make Ryan Day’s squad so great this fall.
But first…
Here’s a look at the College Football Playoff format for the 2026 season, when 12 teams will again compete for the national title:
- Auto-bids will be given to the SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten championship winners
- Notre Dame gets an auto-bid if it finishes in the top 12 of the final CFP rankings
- The top Group of 6 champion gets an auto-bid
- The 4 highest-ranked teams in the last CFP rankings get first-round byes, regardless of if they win their conference championships
And here’s a look back at the teams we’ve predicted will make the Playoff thus far during our series:
- No. 12 — Boise State
- No. 11 — Michigan
- No. 10 — Alabama
- No. 9 — LSU
- No. 8 — Indiana
- No. 7 — Texas Tech
- No. 6 — Georgia
- No. 5 — Oregon
- No. 4 — Notre Dame
- No. 3 — Miami
- No. 2 — Texas
And now, without further ado, let’s dive into our No. 1 seed… the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Playoff Path
Last year, Matt Patricia put on a master class as the defensive coordinator. This year, the offense will be the focal point of the Buckeyes’ attack.
QB Julian Sayin was a Heisman finalist last year and returns the best wide receiver in the nation in Jeremiah Smith. That combo in itself is enough to warrant immense levels of hype, but the offense as a whole is loaded. Per ESPN’s returning production metrics, the Buckeyes rank 8th in the nation, returning 71% of last season’s production.
That includes RB Bo Jackson, WR Brandon Inniss and others. Even with Carnell Tate off to the NFL, the receiving corps is one of the best in the nation.
Alongside Smith and Inniss is freshman Chris Henry Jr., one of the top receivers in the entire 2026 recruiting class.
The Buckeyes’ offense ranked 5th in the Big Ten last season, averaging 33.4 points per game. Indiana scored 41.6 points per contest, while Oregon checked in at 36.9. We all know what Indiana did with that elite offense.
This group for Ohio State has a chance to reach that 40-point threshold several times this season. And it’ll need to, because…
The Possible Roadblock
The defense lost 3 players in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft. In fact, the Buckeyes produced 4 top-11 picks, 3 of them on defense. Those players were WR Carnell Tate (No. 4 overall), LB Arvell Reese (No. 5), LB Sonny Styles (No. 7) and S Caleb Downs (No. 11).
That sort of production is going to be tough to replace. We highlighted earlier how many key contributors the offense has coming back. Well, the defense only returns 50% of its production from last year’s elite unit. That’s good for 78th in the nation.
As is common from top teams in the NIL era, Ohio State made some key portal additions to try to replace some of its key departures. One in particular is cornerback Earl Little Jr., who posted 76 tackles and 4 interceptions for Florida State last season.
Oh, and there’s the little matter of the schedule, which is brutal for the Buckeyes.
Ohio State plays 5 true road games this season, and they’re at Texas (Week 2), at Iowa (Week 5), at Indiana (Week 7), at USC (Week 9) and at Nebraska (Week 12). All of those teams, with the likely exception of Nebraska, will be ranked at the time of the game against Ohio State.
Then there are the home games, which include bouts against Oregon and rival Michigan. Those are 7 really tough games for Ryan Day and company to navigate. Can the defense come together in time to avoid 2 losses in the regular season? A 12-1 Ohio State team, with that schedule, and with a Big Ten championship, would certainly warrant discussion for the No. 1 overall seed.
Odds to Make the Playoff
Even with a rebuilt defense and a brutal schedule, the Buckeyes have a 73% chance to make the Playoff, good for third in the nation behind Notre Dame and Oregon (and tied with Indiana).
Here’s a look at the Playoff qualifiers market from Kalshi:
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Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
