Despite entering the 2025 season as the No. 1 team in America, the Texas Longhorns failed to make the 12-team College Football Playoff field.
Arch Manning struggled early, and though there were some good things done down the stretch (including a win over rival Texas A&M to keep the Aggies out of the SEC Championship Game), the season was a failure for coach Steve Sarkisian and his squad.
Thus, the Longhorns hit the transfer portal hard this offseason, bringing in key pieces to supplement an immense amount of talent already on the roster. Will it be enough?
Today we’ll discuss the Longhorns and their outlook in 2026. But first…
Here’s a look at the Playoff format for the 2026 season, when 12 teams will once again compete for the national title:
- Auto bids will be given to the SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten championship winners
- Notre Dame gets an auto-bid if the Irish finish in the top 12 of the final CFP rankings
- The top Group of 6 champion gets an automatic bid
- The 4 highest-ranked teams in the last CFP rankings get first-round byes, regardless of if they win their conference championships
And here’s a look back at the teams we’ve predicted will make the Playoff thus far during our series:
- No. 12 — Boise State
- No. 11 — Michigan
- No. 10 — Alabama
- No. 9 — LSU
- No. 8 — Indiana
- No. 7 — Texas Tech
- No. 6 — Georgia
- No. 5 — Oregon
- No. 4 — Notre Dame
- No. 3 — Miami
Now let’s dive into our projected No. 2 seed… the Texas Longhorns.
The Playoff Path
Last year, the Longhorns’ defense was loaded. But now Anthony Hill Jr. is gone from the linebacking corps. Michael Taaffe and Malik Muhammad leave big shoes to fill in the secondary. DC Pete Kwiatkowski has been replaced by Will Muschamp.
Yes, there’s still talent all over this defense, led by edge rusher Colin Simmons, who will likely be a top-10 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. But this year’s Texas squad will go as far as its offense can take it.
Arch Manning is once again the preseason Heisman Trophy favorite. Around him is a unit that brought in plenty of reinforcements.
Perhaps the biggest addition to the roster was former Auburn WR Cam Coleman, another likely Round 1 pick in 2027. Manning throws a great deep ball. Coleman is one of the best deep-ball receivers in the business. It’s a match made in heaven.
The offensive line, which struggled last year, should be better. Trevor Goosby, yet another possible first-round pick, will anchor the left side.
Goosby will lead an offensive line that will block for a rebuilt running back room. Hollywood Smothers ended up at Texas instead of Alabama. He ran for 939 yards and 6 touchdowns at NC State last year. He’ll be joined by Raleek Brown, who posted 1,141 yards and 4 scores for Arizona State last season. Those guys should help take a lot of pressure off of Manning.
The offense has the talent to be one of the best in America. There are no excuses for this squad not to be dominant on that side of the ball, even against the brutal schedule it’ll play…
RELATED: How will Texas’s top players fare this year? Check out our list of the best DFS sites ahead of the 2026 season.
The Possible Roadblock
The roadblock is once again the schedule. Texas’s 2026 slate is absolutely brutal. Texas Tech can bluster all it wants about playing the Longhorns anytime, anywhere, but Texas has actually put that theory into practice with its own schedule.
After opening with Texas State, the Longhorns welcome the Ohio State Buckeyes to Austin in a rematch of last year’s defensive slugfest in Columbus. Texas has road trips to Tennessee, LSU and Texas A&M during SEC play. It visits rival Oklahoma in Dallas for the annual Red River Rivalry game. And Ole Miss comes to Austin on Oct. 24.
Those are 6 really tough games (out of only 12 regular-season games). The Longhorns have the talent to be one of the best teams in America, but that schedule is a gauntlet. And, as Texas found out last year, it’s tough to make the 12-team field with 3 losses.
Realistically, the Longhorns need to go 4-2 in those games and then take care of business against everyone else. That’s not a given considering what happened in Gainesville last year. The Florida Gators come to Austin this year, but that will also be a tricky game, as will a road trip to Mizzou.
The good news? No Georgia and no Alabama. That’s about where it ends.
Still, there are landmines everywhere. You only get 2 slip-ups. Can Sark and company handle the pressure?
Odds to Make the Playoff
We’ve already profiled the Georgia Bulldogs, our projected No. 6 seed. Texas has the same odds to make the Playoff as Georgia, according to Kalshi, checking in at 69% to lead the SEC.
Check out the full market for Playoff qualifiers below:
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Stay tuned as we wrap up our series with our projected No. 1 seed… a Big Ten powerhouse.
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Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
