I don’t say this often, but I have a confession.

The World’s Largest Outdoor … football game between Florida and Georgia is one of my 2 or 3 favorite regular-season games on the calendar. Every year. I swear that the CBS drums hit differently for this one and the tailgate juice is second to none.

Yes, that’s a cocktail reference. Keep up.

But the beauty of this game is that Halloween weekend in Jacksonville is almost always ideal spectator weather. Maybe high-70s, low-80s and sunny while watching 2 bitter rivals play in a game that usually decides a division title … that’s the way I draw it up.

Unfortunately this year, Florida isn’t getting to Atlanta without a ticket. Go figure that the more pivotal game for the East race is actually next week in Athens when Georgia hosts unbeaten Tennessee. Also unfortunately, this 22-point spread is the largest between these teams since spreads started being tracked in 1995.

So does that mean we’re in for a one-sided affair on Saturday? And if so, what would that say about these programs?

Let’s dig into that:

Anthony Richardson’s year-to-year growth should be telling

No, it wasn’t fair to judge Richardson’s potential based on last year’s Georgia game, wherein he turned the ball over 3 times in the final 2 1/2 minutes of the first half. Most dudes making their first career start against arguably the best defense of the 21st century would struggle.

But a year later, it’ll be interesting to see Richardson’s progress with Billy Napier. Specifically, can he limit those catastrophic mistakes? I’d argue that’s more significant long-term than whether he makes a highlight reel play or 2. That would show growth.

It’s worth mentioning that UGA doesn’t have a historically dominant defense like last year, but Kirby Smart’s unit is still darn good. It ranks in the top 4 nationally in all of these defensive categories:

  • 1 rushing TD (No. 1 in FBS)
  • 9.1 points per game (No. 2 in FBS)
  • 16 plays of 20 yards (No. 2 in FBS)
  • 4 passing TDs (No. 2 in FBS)
  • 5.4 yards/attempt (No. 4 in FBS)
  • 100.2 QB rating (No. 4 in FBS)
  • 83.3 rushing yards/game (No. 4 in FBS)
  • 247 yards/game (No. 4 in FBS)

That in itself is remarkable considering Georgia had 8 defensive players drafted from that all-world group a year ago. Credit the leader of that defense Nolan Smith, who became a thorn in Richardson’s side last year in Jacksonville.

That’s daunting for Richardson because in his lone 2 starts against top-40 defenses under Napier (Kentucky and LSU), his numbers weren’t great by any stretch:

  • 48% passing
  • 1-2 TD-INT ratio
  • 5.5 yards/attempt
  • 15 rushes for 113 yards
  • 1 rushing TD

Remember that 81 of those rushing yards came on 1 highlight reel play in that ridiculous run to kick off the 4th quarter against LSU. That’s obviously when he’s at his best. Unfortunately for Florida as we saw in those 2 games, the inconsistency passing continues to be an issue for the Florida signal-caller.

Perhaps we’ll see Napier utilize Richardson more as a runner coming off the bye week, which could’ve allowed him and backup Jack Miller to get a bit closer to 100%. That feels like an integral piece of any potential Florida upset.

Here’s why we haven’t felt great about Georgia’s offense lately, despite the solid raw numbers

For what it’s worth, this is mostly about the passing offense. I actually think the versatility we’ve seen from the Georgia rushing attack game-to-game and even quarter-to-quarter has been impressive. The passing game, however, really hasn’t had a whole lot to feel good about since the South Carolina win.

What makes me say that? After all, UGA is:

  • No. 1 in the SEC in red-zone scoring percentage
  • No. 4 in FBS in yards/play
  • T-No. 8 in FBS in scoring offense
  • No. 1 in FBS in yards/play vs. Power 5 competition (min. 3 games)

These are all positives. Then what’s the criticism? Are we just being too nit-picky because Georgia set the bar so high in those first few weeks? Perhaps, but it seems like there’s been a “yeah, but” with the offense each week since rolling the Gamecocks in Columbia.

Against Kent State and Mizzou, the “yeah, but” was being within 10 points late in the 4th quarter after entering as a massive favorite. Against Auburn, the “yeah, but” was Stetson Bennett IV having 29 first-half passing yards and finishing the game with fewer than 7 yards/attempt. And against Vandy, the “yeah, but” was that the 387 yards through the air came against Vandy, who has the second-worst pass defense among Power 5 programs.

The good news for Georgia is that those receivers should be getting healthier. Hopefully that means a full dose of AD Mitchell, who has been banged up with multiple injuries since Week 2. He’s the key to the UGA passing game getting going.

The other good news for Georgia is that against Power 5 competition, Florida’s defense allowed 9.2 yards/attempt. If there’s ever a day for the Dawgs to not have a “yeah, but” it might be this one.

There’s another reason for that …

Florida’s 3rd-down defense has been ____________, while Georgia’s 3rd-down offense has been _________.

“Putrid” and “dynamic” were the words we were looking for.

Florida is 2nd-worst in FBS in opponent 3rd-down conversions at 52.6% while Georgia’s offense is No. 1 in the SEC and No. 8 in FBS in 3rd-down conversions at 52.4%.

What’s the opposite of “something’s gotta give?” How about “nothing’s gotta give?”

To be fair, Georgia should be good on 3rd down. I mean, Bennett is 25 years old (he turned 25 on Friday). You’d hope someone in that spot would be poised to make good decisions on the money downs.

On the Florida side, that’s the byproduct of not having enough depth on defense. If you look at the number of opponent 3rd-down conversions against Power 5 competition, it’s staggering:

  • Utah: 8-for-13
  • Kentucky: 4-for-13
  • Tennessee: 6-for-9
  • Mizzou: 9-for-17
  • LSU: 8-for-12
  • Total: 35-for-64 (54.7%)

As crazy as it sounds, the Gators usually operate in favorable spots on 3rd down. As my guy Chris Doering pointed out on the latest episode of The Saturday Down South Podcast, the average distance for Florida’s 3rd-down defense is 7.1 yards.

“When I go back and look at it, it’s one guy here or there breaking down. It’s being in a good call, but not being in the right technique, not keeping the right leverage, allowing a guy to make a play,” Doering said. “If they go back and have those corrections made, and be on the same page and be able to play great team defense, maybe (Florida) can actually hang around be in the ballgame in the 4th quarter.”

A huge “if,” that is.

I wonder how much facing Utah’s tight end-heavy passing game will benefit this Florida defense

Remember in Week 1 when Utah had 134 of its 216 passing yards go to that elite tight end duo of Dalton Kincaid and Brent Kuithe? Florida knew that was what Utah wanted to do with Cam Rising. I’d say it was a mixed bag because like I mentioned, it’s not like the Gators shut them down, but a red-zone interception to close the game certainly allowed them to have the last laugh in that unique matchup.

So Georgia, which might be the only team in America with a better group of tight ends than Utah, would obviously like to feature Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington. A lot. Who knows? Maybe we’ll even see some more Arik Gilbert coming off his first catches in a Georgia uniform, and true freshman Oscar Delp played double-digit snaps in 5 of Georgia’s first 7 games, so perhaps he’ll also be part of the offensive game plan.

Florida might’ve had a better chance at containing those Utah tight ends because it was Week 1 and depth wasn’t being tested yet. Alternatively, that experience might’ve prepared the Gator defense for a group that loves to operate out of those 2-tight end sets with 12 personnel.

If Bowers and Washington can’t get going, hark back to that monumental season-opening win against the Utes.

This game is unique from the Florida perspective

This is what I’ve been thinking about all week. How many times in recent memory has Florida been in a high-pressure spot against Georgia?

  • 2017 — Jim McElwain about to be fired
  • 2018 — SEC East up for grabs
  • 2019 — SEC East up for grabs
  • 2020 — SEC East up for grabs
  • 2021 — Dan Mullen about to be fired
  • 2022 — Trying to ruin Georgia’s season

OK, I suppose you could argue that the Gators are still trying to push for bowl eligibility by winning 2 of their final 5 games, but nobody is expecting Saturday to be one of those games. Not with a Year 1 coach who enters with a 1-3 mark in SEC play. Not against the defending national champs and No. 1 team in America.

I wonder if that allows the Gators to play a bit looser than expected. There isn’t this pending doom of a coach on the way out, nor is there the concern about 1 mistake costing Florida a chance at a trip to Atlanta. Maybe that benefits Richardson more than any other player out there. At times, he comes off a bit tentative for someone with his skill set.

This could also go the other way. If Georgia plays with that sense of urgency and Florida shows up undisciplined, well, we know this can get lopsided in a hurry.

And a prediction … Georgia 31, Florida 17

I’m not sure if recency bias is getting the best of me, but this feels like a trickier spot for Georgia than what the oddsmakers are projecting. I’m not sure they’ve faced a quarterback who can do the things that Richardson can when he’s right, and that includes Bo Nix. Of course, the whole “when he’s right” thing might not matter against a Georgia defense that doesn’t allow quarterbacks to be “right” very often.

I still think this game is won and lost on 3rd down, which favors the top-ranked Dawgs. That’s where we’ll see Bennett keep drives alive with his arm and legs. But I also wouldn’t be surprised to see some growth from Richardson, and unlike last year, I have a strange feeling that he’ll be taking meaningful snaps late in the 3rd quarter.

Of course, the history books don’t really care about moral victories in this rivalry. Actual victories are still king, and until further notice, UGA is still king of the Cocktail Party.

Er, the World’s Largest Outdoor Football Game Between Florida and Georgia.