In 2023, we will get our last taste of college football as we currently know it.

Next year will be the great upheaval. The College Football Playoff expands from 4 teams to 12. The Power 5 conferences appear to be contracting to a Power 4, for now. A total of 10 current Power 5 teams will play in a new conference.

That’s on top of 4 programs — BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston — entering the Big 12 this season.

It’s the most dramatic set of changes the game has witnessed in decades, if not ever. But it’s also part of a process that’s been 2 decades in the making.

Beginning in 2004, when Miami and Virginia Tech left the Big East for the ACC, the landscape has continuously altered. And it’s fair to wonder how much of that change has been for the better. Only a handful of these moves have been a net positive for the programs doing the moving, or for the conferences doing the expanding.

With so much about to change, we could speculate about whether USC, for instance, will make a bigger impact on the B1G than Texas and Oklahoma will on the SEC, but that’s all it would be: pure speculation.

Instead, let’s stick to what we actually know.

Here, we rank the 15 conference moves from 2004-22 with regards to how each has strengthened the conference itself, primarily from a football perspective.

15. Rutgers to the B1G (2014)

Overall winning percentage: .308

Conference championships: 0

Top 25 finishes: 0

In 2008, former Rutgers great David DeJesus had a .307 batting average for the Kansas City Royals. Pretty good numbers for a baseball player.

Since 2014, Rutgers football has a .308 winning percentage in every football game it has played. Pretty terrible numbers for a football team. Any time you can measure winning percentage against batting average, you’ve got problems. Even if it’s Ted Williams.

Former B1G commissioner Jim Delany’s cynical ploy to add Rutgers so the Big Ten Network could get added to New York City cable carriers has borne financial fruit for the league. And the Scarlet Knights have been a nice addition in men’s basketball. The RAC/Jersey Mike’s Arena is legitimately one of the B1G’s best venues.

But in football terms, this move has turned into exactly what everybody except Delany knew it would: a massive bust. And the perfect symbol for everything that’s wrong about conference expansion.

14. Colorado to the Pac-12 (2011)

Overall winning percentage: .338

Conference championships: 0

Top 25 finishes: 1

Truly remarkable work turned in by the Buffs.

This formerly great program accomplished Jack Squat in its first 11 years in the Pac-12, save for a fluke trip to the conference championship game in 2016. (Colorado lost to Washington 41-10, which is why it’s largely a forgotten episode.)

But Colorado ultimately ended up being the fatal bullet that killed the Pac-12, with its decision to leave for the Big 12 greasing the skids for everyone else to run for cover if they could.

By default, you’d think that makes Colorado the worst addition to any conference. Ever. They burned down the damn guest house they lived in.

But … Rutgers.

13. Maryland to the B1G (2014)

Overall winning percentage: .429

Conference championships: 0

Top 25 finishes: 0

Mike Locksley is raising the bar at Maryland, and this feels like the year in which the Terrapins will finally crack the AP Top 25 rankings. But to this point, Maryland’s Big Ten experience has been nothing more than a “Get Out of Debt Free” card.

Delany’s face should go on the Maryland state flag for doing the state such a solid. Not like it’ll make that thing any uglier.

12. Syracuse to the ACC (2013)

Overall winning percentage: .410

Conference championships: 0

Top 25 finishes: 1

Syracuse has brought nothing to the ACC other than Jim Boeheim whining about everything that made ACC basketball great. Fortunately, the Orange have fixed the glitch and sent Jim to the retirement castle. He can complain about the tapioca now.

As for football, Dino Babers led the Orange to a top 15 finish in 2018. Which is better than anything that happened to those 3 schools above.

11. Nebraska to the Big Ten (2011)

Overall winning percentage: .510

Conference championships: 0

Top 25 finishes: 2

Nebraska reached the Big Ten championship game in just its 2nd season in the league, and it looked like the Huskers were ready to get cooking again.

And then the 2012 Big Ten championship kicked off. The stove blew up in Nebraska’s face: a 70-31 loss to Wisconsin from which the program still has not recovered.

Nebraska hasn’t even reached a bowl game since 2016. As measured by potential, Nebraska to the B1G is the most disappointing move made in conference realignment. The promise of another power program has remained unfulfilled.

Somehow, it’s still the Big Ten’s best move by miles.

10. Boston College to the ACC (2005)

Overall winning percentage: .524

Conference championships: 0

Top 25 finishes: 3

Full disclosure: I had no idea BC was this successful since moving from the Big East. It’s largely the Matt Ryan effect. And this really was a good program until the school foolish fired Jeff Jagodzinski for interviewing for the New York Jets coaching vacancy.

The Eagles haven’t finished a season ranked since. Top-notch job by former AD Gene DeFilippo there. Maybe he’s DeFilipping burgers now.

But at least we did get this moment, which single-handedly lifts BC into the Top 10:

9. West Virginia to Big 12 (2012)

Overall winning percentage: .537

Conference championships: 0

Top 25 finishes: 2

The Mountaineers certainly haven’t embarrassed themselves since joining the Big 12, but it’s fair to say folks were expecting a little bit more than they’ve actually produced. WVU should be good for a Top 10 season twice every decade or so, and that hasn’t happened.

West Virginia figures to be a beneficiary of the Big 12’s latest expansion since it will actually bring some conference rivals in the same time zone.

8. Louisville to ACC (2014)

Overall winning percentage: .544

Conference championships: 0

Top 25 finishes: 2

Louisville has brought a mixture of success and scandal to the ACC — although to be fair, that combination seems to happen to the Cardinals regardless of where they live.

On the field, Lamar Jackson’s 2016 Heisman Trophy campaign is the high point of program history. Alas, nothing involving Bobby Petrino ends well. And just like the last time Petrino nuked his own program by just being himself, it’ll take the second coach hired after him to get the program back on top.

And we won’t even get into the myriad basketball issues …

7. Pitt to ACC (2013)

Overall winning percentage: .581

Conference championships: 1

Top 25 finishes: 2

Pat Narduzzi is the best thing to hit Pittsburgh since French fries were placed on sandwiches. With consecutive Top 25 finishes and the 2022 ACC title, the Panthers are on the rise after more or less spending a decade-plus in the wilds of mediocrity.

Whereas Virginia Tech’s arrow is pointing downward, Pitt’s is going up. But there’s still work to be done for the Panthers to move up the list.

6. Miami to the ACC (2004)

Overall winning percentage: .592

Conference championships: 0

Top 25 finishes: 5

When Miami joined the ACC, the Canes were separated from Florida State in the divisional structure with the expressed intent of giving the rivals a pathway to meet in the ACC Championship Game.

That idea is a sterling 0-for-19 since its inception — like the line for a new Marlins No. 8 hitter after one of their fire sales.

As the winning percentage indicates, Miami has won plenty of games in the ACC. But the Hurricanes have never once lived up to expectations. Miami’s been ranked in the preseason Top 10 on 3 occasions since 2004, but has yet to finish in the Top 10 since joining the ACC.

That’s a bust. Yet still somehow in the top half of conference moves. You can thank Jim Larranaga and the basketball program for that.

5. Missouri to the SEC (2012)

Overall winning percentage: .544

Conference championships: 0

Top 25 finishes: 2

Delany remains a revered figure in Big Ten circles, but let’s be honest: Every one of his expansion moves stunk, beginning with the decision to make Nebraska the B1G’s 12th team instead of Missouri.

Mizzou has a natural rivalry with Illinois in the St. Louis metro area, and it would have offered the Illini a far more legitimate conference rival than Northwestern. No one hates the Wildcats in Champaign. But they do hate the Tigers.

Unlike Nebraska, Mizzou even held on to its AAU accreditation. And the Tigers shocked everyone by winning the SEC East in 2013 and 2014. They would have proved a stronger program than the Cornhuskers have.

And had Mizzou gone to the B1G, the matter of who would have joined the SEC with Texas A&M becomes a fascinating what-if. Clemson? Florida State? Oklahoma? Other? Would any of those moves put an early halt to what followed?

Would Nebraska follow Colorado to the Pac-12, boxing out Utah? Would the Utes end up in the Big 12 a decade ahead of schedule?

We’ll never know, because Delany fumbled. And not for the last time.

4. Texas A&M to the SEC (2012)

Overall winning percentage: .652

Conference championships: 0

Top 25 finishes: 4

The Aggies are the best conference addition that hasn’t won a conference championship. And not just because they win the occasional recruiting championship. They’ve actually enhanced the SEC.

Obviously, the biggest part of that bounce was early on with Johnny Manziel’s electrifying Heisman campaign in 2012. But A&M’s annual matchups with Alabama, Arkansas and LSU have frequently had some serious juice. And until last year, Texas A&M hadn’t experienced a losing season since leaving the Big 12.

While this ranking certainly focuses primarily on football, the Aggies also have reached the College World Series and Sweet 16 twice since joining the SEC.

3. TCU to the Big 12 (2012)

Overall winning percentage: .622

Conference championships: 2

Top 25 finishes: 4

CFP appearances: 1

When Utah joins the Big 12, it’ll meet up with old Mountain West running mate TCU. Technically speaking, the Horned Frogs are the only conference shifter to thus far reach the College Football Playoff. (Cincinnati actually moved backward from the Big East to the American, so we’re not including the Bearcats until they begin Big 12 play.)

Utah is ranked No. 2 (spoiler) because it has more Top 25 seasons and a better winning percentage, but it may be more of a 2a and 2b situation than 2 and 3. Each former MWC program has fared exceptionally well since moving. At this rate, both will eclipse Virginia Tech on this scale in a few years.

And that seems pretty instructive.

The programs who stepped up a level in competition are doing better than the programs coveted for the size of their media market share, because they were already Top 25-caliber programs. It’s almost as if conference expansion should only happen for legitimate competitive reasons instead of TV ratings.

2. Utah to the Pac-12 (2011)

Overall winning percentage: .640

Conference championships: 2

Top 25 finishes: 6

Most schools have moved laterally over the course of conference realignment. Utah is one of the few to move upward, elevating from the Mountain West to the Pac-12 in 2011.

The Utes more or less needed 3 years to adjust to their new digs, but have been a runaway success ever since. They’ll attempt to close their Pac-12 tenure with a 3rd consecutive Pac-12 title this year before making another journey to the Big 12.

1. Virginia Tech to the ACC (2004)

Overall winning percentage: .645

Conference championships: 4

Top 25 finishes: 10

It’s quite telling that the Hokies remain the greatest success story of conference realignment despite the fact they’ve been backsliding for a decade. Virginia Tech hasn’t finished in the Top 25 since 2017 and hasn’t won a bowl game since 2016.

Yet most of the other moves bring that little to the table.

Virginia Tech’s first decade in the ACC was smashing success. The Hokies were ranked in their first 8 seasons in the conference, highlighted by 4 titles and top-10 finishes.

And though the word iconic is grossly misused these days, Beamerball gave us a truly iconic image in 2014.