Everything you need to know about this weekend’s SEC slate.

Game of the Week: Georgia vs. Clemson (-3)

The stakes

A top-5 matchup between perennial contenders speaks for itself, even more so when they also happen to be old rivals. From a national context, this one has the makings of the most consequential Clemson-Georgia game on record: The Tigers and Bulldogs have never met before with both ranked in the AP top 5, and with both sides arriving in Playoff-or-bust mode, an 0-1 start will set off alarms that are likely to reverberate throughout the season. If it’s not literally an elimination game, it’s certainly as close as an opener can get.

For Clemson, Saturday night may be the only significant test of the regular season. The rest of the schedule is on cruise control: The Tigers don’t play another currently ranked opponent, or one that looks particularly likely to crack the polls at any point, and probably won’t until at least the ACC Championship Game. Georgia is their only chance to bank an undeniable quality win and avoid the inevitable skepticism about their strength of schedule in December. For UGA, there will be more opportunities to offset a high-profile loss – Florida, Auburn, the SEC title game – but significantly less margin for error in those games, too. That’s a long, narrow road to travel without another blemish.

Beyond the practical Playoff implications, there’s the more fundamental question of where each program stands relative to the rest of the national elite. Georgia has lost 4 straight vs. top-5 opponents, the last 2 (vs. LSU in 2019 and Alabama last October) by a combined 44 points. The Bulldogs also flopped last year in the decisive game in the SEC East, a 16-point loss to Florida that wasn’t as close as that margin suggests. Clemson has had its own reality checks on big stages, getting bounced from the Playoff in decisive fashion the past 2 seasons by LSU and Ohio State, respectively, and coming up short in a high-profile trip to Notre Dame in between.

The Tigers did absolve the loss in South Bend by trashing the Irish a few weeks later in the ACC title game. Still, after subsequently getting their hats handed to them by OSU in the Sugar Bowl, the 29-game win streak that spanned the 2018 and ’19 seasons is beginning to fade into the distance. Georgia’s classic 2017 Playoff victory over Oklahoma may as well have already disappeared over the horizon. The last thing either team wants is to spend the next year rehashing another entry on that list.

The stat: 12.7 yards

That’s Georgia quarterback JT Daniels’ average depth of target beyond the line of scrimmage in 2020, according to Pro Football Focus, good for 4th nationally among QBs with at least 100 attempts.

By way of comparison, 12.7 ypa was more than a full yard per attempt better than the guy Daniels replaced in the starting lineup, Stetson Bennett IV, averaged over the first half of the season, and more than 2 yards per attempt better than former starter Jake Fromm averaged in any of his 3 seasons on the job from 2017-19. But Daniels didn’t just push the ball downfield more often last year — he was also far more successful when he did.

Fromm fared a little better in this category than he tended to get credit for, especially as a true freshman in the 2017 run to the national championship game; on the other hand, his downfield efficiency declined each season, which tracks with the general trajectory of his UGA career. Regardless, Daniels and his big-league arm clearly generated a spark at the end of last season that the offense had been broadly missing since that ’17 run — the most obvious difference between Georgia and the fully evolved spread passing attacks at Alabama and LSU that have brought home the hardware in the meantime. Daniels gives the Bulldogs a chance to close that gap.

If he’s going to close it on Saturday night, though, he’s going to have to do it with a severely shorthanded receiving corps that has been recently downgraded from Emerging Strength to work in progress. Dominick Blaylock is working his way back from the torn ACL that cost him all of last season. Darnell Washington, a breakout candidate at tight end, is doubtful due to an injured foot. LSU transfer Arik Gilbert, one of the portal’s biggest fish, has yet to join the team for undisclosed reasons. All of the above were 5-star recruits.

The list of healthy and available targets includes junior Kearis Jackson, sophomore Jermaine Burton, and a handful of second-year guys who barely got their feet wet as freshmen. Talented? Sure. Ready to make a difference vs. Clemson? Unlikely.

The big question: Can Clemson block Georgia’s front seven?

For a first-year starter, Clemson’s sophomore QB DJ Uiagalelei is as close to a sure thing as they come this side of Trevor Lawrence himself. He has the hype, the tools and the reps, via a couple of midseason starts vs. Boston College and Notre Dame after Lawrence was briefly sidelined by COVID-19 protocols. He looks the part and then some.

The offensive line is a harder sell. Although the unit returns 3 starters, they were part of a front that was largely owned by Ohio State their last time out: Clemson managed just 44 yards rushing on 2.0 per carry against the Buckeyes, and without the ground game to fall back on in the second half they were overrun by the depth and speed of OSU’s pass rush. Ohio State generated 21 QB pressures on 50 dropbacks, per PFF, 16 of them credited to defensive linemen, who eventually succeeded in turning Lawrence into a sitting duck without resorting to blitzing. Not the Tigers’ finest hour.

Georgia’s front seven, of course, has more depth and speed than it sometimes knows what to do with. Inside, senior nose tackle Jordan Davis is the nation’s premiere war daddy, an immovable, 6-6/340-pound behemoth born to absorb double teams and clog running lanes. Outside, senior OLB Adam Anderson posted the highest PFF grade in 2020 (93.0) of any FBS defender at any position, generating 23 pressures and 6 sacks in just 130 snaps, a number that should expand dramatically with the departure of last year’s no. 1 edge-rushing terror, Azeez Ojulari. In between, everyone else is either a former 5-star still on the upward slope of their career (Nolan Smith and Nakobe Dean at linebacker, Jalen Carter and Travon Walker on the line) or a proven starter with the NFL in his future (DL Devonte Wyatt).

The most likely future pro among Clemson’s starting five, sophomore Walker Parks, is moving into one of the vacancies at right tackle. Everywhere else, the Tigers will almost certainly be outmanned athletically and, at least at times, struggling to survive. How well they manage it as a unit in the interest of keeping their young QB upright will be one of the decisive factors.

The key matchup: Clemson WR Justyn Ross vs. Georgia CB Derion Kendrick

Casual fans will remember Ross from a couple of career-making performances as a true freshman in Clemson’s 2018 Playoff run. The last 2 years, a good-not-great turn in 2019 followed by a medical redshirt due to a career-threatening neck injury in 2020, have been less memorable. Still, with a clean bill of health, Ross should be the undisputed WR1 in a group that lost both of last year’s top 2 receivers, Amari Rodgers and Cornell Powell, to the NFL, and with his elite combination of speed, body control and expansive catch radius he shouldn’t be far behind.

Across the line of scrimmage, Kendrick, a Clemson transfer, is as much an X-factor as his former teammate, albeit for very different reasons. On one hand, cornerback was the glaring vacancy on Georgia’s depth chart following the exit of both of last year’s starters, Eric Stokes (the 29th overall pick in the draft) and Tyson Campbell (No. 33), and Kendrick’s arrival filled an obvious void with a former 5-star prospect who has logged 23 career starts on one of the nation’s best defenses. On the other hand, there’s a reason Clemson considered him expendable: Beyond his legal issues (since resolved), Kendrick was also one of the goats in both of the Tigers’ Playoff losses the past 2 years, giving up a combined 236 yards and 5 touchdowns in those games alone, per PFF.

Still, in fairness his worst moments aren’t the full story: ACC coaches tabbed Kendrick, a converted wideout, as an All-ACC pick in 2019 (second) and 2020 (first), and outside of the Playoff debacles, he’s allowed just 1 touchdown the past 2 years against everyone else. Ross, at 6-4/205, falls into the category of long, imposing receiver who can give the 6-0/190-pound Kendrick problems. But UGA has a lot riding on him becoming a solution.

The verdict

At full strength, it’s hard to argue against Georgia’s two-deep as the most complete lineup in the country. Given the injuries at wide receiver, though — and George Pickens’ absence, especially — the Bulldogs are coming in a couple gallons short of a full tank of gas. Clemson’s defense will be determined to put the game on Daniels’ arm by shutting down the run and forcing the wideouts to make plays. Easier said than done, but Brent Venables usually gets what he wants.
– – –
• Clemson 32 | Georgia 27

Miami vs. Alabama (-19.5)

The preliminary scouting report on Bama’s massively hyped new quarterback, Bryce Young, is short, athletic and polished, and just to drive home the enormous expectations he faces the go-to comparisons tend be on the loftier side – Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, maybe a dash of Johnny Manziel if we’re feeling ambitious. A more realistic comp, though, might be to his counterpart in Saturday’s opener against Miami: D’Eriq King.

It’s fun to imagine King, one of the most productive college quarterbacks of his era, on a team with anything even remotely approximating Alabama’s talent, a luxury he’s never had at the college level. The U is an upgrade in that respect over his previous school, Houston, but not by as much as the ‘Canes would ideally like to think. Even by diminished Miami standards, this is an unremarkable group elevated mainly by King himself: Miami’s scoring average in his first season (34.0 ppg) was its best in more than a decade and an improvement of nearly 12 points per game over 2019 with essentially the same surrounding cast.

Anyway, King’s presence might make a difference in whether the ‘Canes manage to cover the spread and not much else. As role models go, a young quarterback prepping for his first career start can do a lot worse than the guy who broke Tim Tebow’s record for consecutive games with both a rushing and passing touchdown. If Young is as good as advertised, he’ll outgrow the comparison game in short order.
– – –
Alabama 38 | • Miami 23

LSU (-3) at UCLA

UCLA raised some eyebrows and narrowed the point spread for this one considerably last week in a 44-10 shellacking of Hawai’i that was effectively over in the first quarter. That goes down as the Bruins’ largest margin of victory in 32 games under Chip Kelly and possibly the first time they’ve looked like the team they were expecting when they hired Kelly 4 years ago.

Of course, from the evidence, it’s entirely possible that this Hawai’i team is a special kind of bad and not a useful measuring stick for opponents. If LSU expects to return to the 9- or 10-win range after last year’s hangover, this needs to be one of them.
– – –
• LSU 34 | UCLA 24

Louisville vs. Ole Miss (-10)

One lingering question for the Rebels is who will replace departed All-American Elijah Moore as WR1? Holdovers Jonathan Mingo, Dontario Drummond and Braylon Sanders have combined for 2,060 career yards and 17 TDs on 16.9 yards per catch without much separation between them. All 3 could play a significant role in absorbing Moore’s production, which is not a feat for any one man alone.
– – –
• Ole Miss 44 | Louisville 31

Kent State at Texas A&M (-28.5)

All eyes on Saturday night will be on Texas A&M’s new quarterback, redshirt freshman Haynes King. But the trip to College Station is also an important showcase for Kent State QB Dustin Crum, one of the nation’s true hidden gems. Although he was limited to just 4 games last year by COVID-19, Crum followed up a breakthrough 2019 campaign by finishing in the top 10 nationally in yards per attempt, pass efficiency, and Total QBR at the head of an offense that — small sample size notwithstanding — led the nation in scoring at 49.8 points per game. Plus: Literally a rocket scientist.

Crum earned a first-team All-MAC nod from league coaches and an overall 85.1 grade from Pro Football Focus, which makes him a) the only returning quarterback nationally with 85+ PFF grades each of the past 2 seasons, and b) a plausibly draftable prospect in 2022, with this game going a long way toward determining just how plausible. If King is slow out of the gate the first hour or two could be harrowing ones before the Aggies’ overwhelming talent advantage is fully mobilized.
– – –
Texas A&M 41 | • Kent State 20

Florida Atlantic at Florida (-23.5)

FAU held an all-Group of 5 schedule to just 17.4 points per game in 2020, good for 9th nationally. Unfortunately, the Owls averaged just 18.9 ppg themselves, good for 125th. Florida’s margin of victory on Saturday could exceed both numbers combined.
– – –
• Florida 44 | Florida Atlantic 13

La. Tech at Mississippi State (-23)

Louisiana Tech upgraded a sketchy quarterback situation late in the game, adding Oklahoma/West Virginia transfer Austin Kendall over the summer and quickly installing him as the starter. But the Bulldogs have nowhere near enough juice at receiver to legitimately test Mississippi State’s outstanding corners, Martin Emerson and Emmanuel Forbes.
– – –
Mississippi State 37 | • Louisiana Tech 20

Akron at Auburn (-37)

Akron finished dead last nationally in pass efficiency defense in 2020, which is a golden opportunity for Bo Nix and his fledgling wideouts to pad their stats as they’re likely to get.
– – –
• Auburn 51 | Akron 10

Central Michigan at Missouri (-14.5)

CMU head coach Jim McElwain likely won’t make the trip to face an old SEC, uh, rival, due to a badly timed bout of appendicitis. He won’t be missing much.
– – –
• Missouri 36 | Central Michigan 17

Bowling Green at Tennessee (-35)

The combination of a Thursday night opener, a hapless opponent, a new head coach, a transfer quarterback making his debut in Vols orange and a fan base desperate for positive vibes adds up to a nearly perfect score in the Overreaction Index. Bowling Green is coming off an 0-5 season in which it was outscored by 33.6 points per game against an all-MAC schedule; the Falcons may well be the worst team in the entire FBS. Tennessee’s new starter, Joe Milton III, will have an easy, productive and possibly (if they let him) prolific night in a start-to-finish blowout. The only way it might register as a sign of what’s to come over the rest of the season is if he’s actually forced to break a sweat in the process.
– – –
• Tennessee 45 | Bowling Green 6

Rice at Arkansas (-19.5)

Saturday marks the first meeting between Arkansas and Rice since 1991, when they were rivals in the Southwest Conference. Those games were rarely very close and this one shouldn’t be, either.
– – –
• Arkansas 38 | Rice 13

UL-Monroe at Kentucky (-31)

This is the season premiere of Kentucky’s new, passer-friendly offense under first-year OC Liam Coen, and the Wildcats couldn’t have picked a more ripe opponent for the occasion: UL-Monroe ranked 125th out of 127 teams in pass efficiency defense in 2020, allowing a staggering 9.9 yards per attempt and 20 touchdowns to just four INTs.
– – –
Kentucky 43 | • UL-Monroe 14

Eastern Illinois at South Carolina (-40.5)

The title for most lopsided point spread of the week goes to … South Carolina? The team that just promoted an intern to starting quarterback? Really? Eastern Illinois was bad in its spring season, going 1-5, but for their sake hopefully not that bad.
– – –
South Carolina 39 | • Eastern Illinois 10

East Tennessee State at Vanderbilt (-21.5)

Possibly the only result that Vanderbilt could achieve in Clark Lea’s first season as head coach that wouldn’t be chalked up as a mulligan would be a loss to a local FCS team that Vandy shut out, 38-0, in their last meeting in 2019. If the ‘Dores are doomed to wind up 1-11, this is the one.
– – –
Vanderbilt 31 | • East Tennessee State 13