2024 NFL Draft: Our favorite NFL Draft odds for the first round
The 2024 NFL Draft is right around the corner with all attention to the first round of the draft Thursday night!
After the 2023 college football season and an in-depth draft process, the outlook for the first round is just about set. By all accounts, USC quarterback Caleb Williams is bound to be the top pick by the Chicago Bears, but the rest of the first round includes some questions at key spots.
Will a QB-needy team jump up to select JJ McCarthy in the top 5? Is Alabama’s Dallas Turner the top defensive prospect available? How many total QBs will come off the board in the first round?
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Fans can head to FanDuel to track all the odds for the draft and get in on the first-round action. Within the SEC, here are some of our favorite odds for this year’s draft:
Team to draft Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders -145 via ESPN Bet)
The discussion between Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye is about to be settled, but all expectations currently have Daniels as the No. 2 overall pick to be selected by Washington. That makes the -145 number a decent play here.
For much of the 2022 and 2023 college football seasons, Maye was widely regarded as the No. 2 QB in this draft cycle behind Williams. However, Daniels’ Heisman Trophy season and subsequent pre-draft process changed things.
In fact, Daniels shifted the discussion so much that ESPN’s Louis Riddick continues to proclaim his belief that LSU’s star is the best QB prospect available. That doesn’t change the fact the Chicago Bears are unlikely to pass on Williams, but it does make Washington the overwhelming favorite to take Daniels.
First defensive player drafted (Dallas Turner -110 via ESPN Bet)
Dallas Turner enters the draft as the SEC Defensive Player of the Year with 10 sacks and 14.5 TFL a season ago. For his career, Turner has 32.5 TFL and 22.5 sacks, and he backed up that production with a strong showing at the NFL Combine.
Any other year, Turner would be a likely top 5 pick based on his numbers and testing, but a deep group of QBs and elite receivers could push him down a few slots. Either way, most teams should have Turner as the best edge rusher available, and that should net him coming off the board as the top defensive pick.
Brock Bowers draft position UNDER 12.5 (-190 via ESPN Bet)
Brock Bowers came out of the 2023 NFL Draft with many analysts buzzing about a potential top-5 pick for Georgia’s star tight end. While that chatter cooled considerably in the year since, his overall stock for the draft remains elite.
This pick simply boils down to the fact that I cannot see 12 teams passing on Bowers Thursday night. It’s also not unheard of for a top tight end to come off the board that high.
Kyle Pitts was the No. 4 pick in 2021 out of Florida, and TJ Hockenson was the 8th overall pick in 2019. While Bowers is unlikely to be viewed as the type of unicorn Pitts was, he remains a complete-package TE with elite production at the collegiate level.
The New York Jets, the team with the No. 10 pick in the draft, have the best odds to select Bowers at +110 at ESPN Bet, and ESPN’s Jordan Reid echoed that projection in his complete mock draft.
Total QBs selected in 1st round (OVER 4.5 -255 via DraftKings)
This feels like a safe play based on what is expected to be a heavy run on QBs at the very top of the draft. If JJ McCarthy does come off the board in the top 10 as expected, that means just one more QB would be needed in the rest of the first round to hit that number.
Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. are the other candidates here, and it’s a bit tougher to nail down their projections at this point. They have been mocked across the board, but both winding up in the second round seems unlikely with teams constantly chasing a QB.
Bo Nix vs. Michael Penix Jr.: Who will be drafted first? (Nix +195 via DraftKings)
This is an interesting head-to-head bet fans can take advantage of at DraftKings, and the odds are surprising. Penix is -245 compared to Nix at +195, but determining which players comes off the board first depends on who you talk to.
ESPN’s Jordan Reid has Nix in the first round as a selection by the Denver Broncos with Penix not coming off the board until the second round. Meanwhile, NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah has Penix as the 13th overall pick to the Las Vegas Raiders.
The potential payoff with Nix makes this a worthwhile play in what will be an interesting battle to track.
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Once again we see the Falcons blow it. Rather than taking a chance to see if Brock Bowers would still be available at #8 pick, they sign Charlie Woerner several months ago. So when they do go for Georgia players (very rare), they pass on one of the best Tight Ends ever in favor of a slightly better than average TE. Recall the year they passed on Todd Gurley or Nick Chubb and then drafted a running back the next round we never heard of before or since. The Falcons will be losers forever under the current owners. Hundreds of coaches have not make any difference. It’s ownership.
28-3!!!!!!!