Breaking down the weekend’s SEC slate, all in one place.

Game of the Week: Alabama (-1.5) at Texas A&M

The stakes: Who wants to win the SEC West?

In the final year of its existence, a division that has long reveled in its depth and dominance over the rest of the sport is as wide open for the taking as it has ever been, and suddenly as devoid of any obvious takers. Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M not only lost their big, tone-setting nonconference showdowns in the season’s first 2 weeks — they lost them convincingly, all by double digits, against 3 of the most notoriously underachieving outfits in the country. Would-be frontrunners Ole Miss and LSU failed their first big road tests in consecutive weeks. Arkansas, Auburn and Mississippi State, finally presented with the opportunity they’ve been waiting for to make their move, have instead embarked on a race to the bottom.

Typically at this point on the calendar, the West boasts multiple teams in the top 10, all thinking bigger than surviving the division gauntlet; through 5 weeks in 2023, it has none.

Still, someone is going to Atlanta, and based on the current standings the winner in College Station emerges as the de facto frontrunner.

Bama and Texas A&M are the last teams standing without a conference loss, and despite the existential crises that followed their Week 2 flops against Texas and Miami, respectively, both have regained their footing, beating their first 4 SEC opponents by a combined 66 points. Bama has settled on a quarterback, Jalen Milroe; A&M’s defense has scored more touchdowns the past 2 weeks as it has allowed (1). The alleged feud between Jimbo Fisher and his old boss, Nick Saban, mostly manufactured to begin with, seems to have taken the year off.

What’s left instead is the broader narrative behind the whole Fisher project: The Aggies’ deep-pocketed drive to supplant the Tide as division kingpins, against Alabama’s unwillingness to be moved. The 1.5-point spread reflects the opportunity: Bama is as vulnerable at this particular moment as it has been in the Saban era, and the talent gap is as narrow as it has been since A&M joined the conference.

By next year, there won’t even be a division crown to lay claim to, while the arrival of Oklahoma and Texas will make the road to Atlanta that much steeper. While it still resembles the SEC as we know it, this might be literally the Aggies’ last, best chance.

The stat: 23.4%

That’s the percentage of 3rd downs converted by offenses against Texas A&M’s defense this season, the lowest rate in the SEC and 3rd-best nationally. Altogether, the Aggies have allowed just 15 conversions on 64 attempts, and held their 3 Power 5 opponents to 11-for-39.

As usual when it comes to 3rd-down success — stopping them or converting them — that’s largely a reflection of A&M’s success on 1st and 2nd down. In their Week 4 win over Auburn, the Aggies forced 12 3rd downs, excluding a meaningless final drive in garbage time: 11 were 3rd-and-8 or longer. (Often much longer: Half of the Tigers’ 3rd-down attempts came with at least 12 yards to go.) Last week, Arkansas faced 3rd-and-7 or longer on 10 of its 14 attempts, including all 4 of its successful conversions in the first quarter. Not coincidentally, 6 of A&M’s 14 sacks in those 2 games were recorded on 3rd downs.

On that note, protecting the quarterback has been an issue for Alabama against Texas A&M each of the past 2 years. In 2021, the Aggies memorably hounded Bryce Young, sacking him 4 times and forcing him into an interception en route to a major upset. And with Milroe filling for Young last year, he was strip-sacked twice in a 24-20 nail-biter decided on the final play.

Neither of Milroe’s giveaways in that game came on 3rd down — nor did either of his much-scrutinized interceptions in this year’s loss to Texas, for the record — but they were the first glimpses of his ongoing ball-security issues, and 3rd-and-long in Kyle Field must rank among the most turnover-prone situations an young quarterback can face. The best way for Alabama to protect its still relatively inexperienced gunslinger is to keep him out of it.

The big question: Which quarterback makes/avoids the big mistake?

Milroe’s turnover issues are well-documented. Exhaustively documented. In his case, a big part of the concern is not so much the quantity — 5 giveaways in 5 career starts is hardly the end of the world — but the egregiousness. None of his 3 interceptions this season have come under duress, or in a particularly pressure-packed situation; all 3 have come as a result of abysmal reads that resulted in groaners.

And they’ve been costly. His 2 INTs against Texas led directly to 10 points for the Longhorns, the eventual margin in a 34-24 loss; his lone pick against Ole Miss, a badly misjudged lob into the end zone, snuffed out a golden scoring opportunity on an afternoon when it seemed obvious points were going to be at a premium. He didn’t commit a turnover in last week’s 40-17 win at Mississippi State, but also put the ball in the air just 12 times. For all his physical gifts, Milroe’s boom-or-bust potential should strike fear equally into both sides.

But his counterpart on Saturday, Max Johnson, isn’t exactly the surest-handed QB in the land, either. He comes in with 17 career fumbles dating to his tenure as a QB1 at LSU, per Pro Football Focus, including 2 lost fumbles last week against Arkansas, his first start of the season in place of the injured Conner Weigman. Johnson was also victimized by the Razorbacks on a pick-6 that, had it happened in a more competitive game, would have set off much louder alarms:

Bizarrely, this marks the 3rd consecutive season that the Aggies have faced Bama with a backup quarterback thrust into the starting role. In a matchup that figures to be dictated by the defenses, the margin for error narrows and generating explosive plays takes a backseat to ensuring the routine ones don’t blow up in your face. I wouldn’t go so far as to say “punting is winning” — too much firepower on both offenses for that — but as long as it’s close there are certainly much worse fates than a punt.

The key matchup: Texas A&M WR Evan Stewart vs. Alabama CB Terrion Arnold

This one definitely falls under the category of a “Sunday Matchup” between a couple of future pros. Last year’s meeting in Tuscaloosa was a breakout game for Stewart, a 5-star freshman whose 8-catch, 106-yard performance on 15 targets announced his arrival as A&M’s go-to receiver. As a sophomore, he leads the team in receptions (24), yards (357) and touchdowns (4), including downfield strikes from Johnson in each of the past 2 games.

Most of Stewart’s targets last year came opposite Arnold, who was the victim on a couple of memorable plays but also gave as good as he got: Only 2 of Stewart’s 9 targets vs. Arnold yielded first downs, which were offset by Arnold’s first career interception. So far this year, opposing QBs are just 11-for-24 for 129 yards throwing in his direction, per PFF, with Arnold earning credit for a team-high 6 forced incompletions.

The verdict …

Alabama has not traveled especially well over the past few seasons, and the Bama mystique has undeniably taken a hit over the first half of this one, as reflected in the razor-thin point spread against an unranked opponent. (Texas A&M arguably should be ranked, but still.)

For such an angsty September, though, the Tide are right where they want to be in the conference race: 2-0, in control of their fate, and with a direct path to the West crown and the Playoff if they take care of business as usual. Milroe isn’t going anywhere, the defense has been in vintage form the past 3 weeks, and everyone else on the schedule has plenty of looming question marks of their own. With Weigman on ice, A&M has one of the biggest at the most important position. The Aggies have beaten Bama with a backup quarterback before, in much more unlikely circumstances than they face Saturday. But then, just how likely is that particular lightning bolt to strike twice?
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• Alabama 29 | Texas A&M 23

Kentucky at Georgia (-14.5)

Georgia’s defense is still smarting (no pun intended) from last week’s 27-20 win over Auburn, which kept the score close largely by ginning up 219 yards rushing on 5.1 per carry. Incredibly, the first time Georgia had allowed any opponent to run for 200 yards or 5.0 per carry since 2018. Even more incredibly, Auburn managed it without the slightest threat of a passing game the Dawgs were bound to respect.

It still took a couple of takeaways in UGA territory for the Tigers to crack the end zone, but the fact that they were able to capitalize on the short fields with little hope of completing a pass beyond the line of scrimmage was a minor miracle — either that, or a signal that even Georgia cannot automatically replace a historic exodus of draft picks from the front seven without attrition taking its toll.

At any rate, Auburn’s success in the trenches is certainly of interest to Kentucky, which also put up a big number on the ground (329 yards on 9.1 per carry vs. Florida) on a day when its passing game was reduced to an afterthought.

The Wildcats aren’t about to line up and bully Georgia to anywhere near the extent they did the Gators, and pro-style QB Devin Leary isn’t about to replicate the rushing production of Auburn’s Payton Thorne and Robby Ashford, who combined for the majority of the Tigers’ output. But UK is fundamentally a run-first, ball-control outfit, and establishing the freshly goated Ray Davis between the tackles remains the first step to making the rest of the offense go.

Between Davis and the starting wideouts (Tayvion Robinson, Barion Brown and Dane Key), the Wildcats are as fully stocked at the skill positions as they’ve been in Mark Stoops‘ tenure; Leary, the 2021 ACC Offensive Player of the Year at NC State, portaled in specifically to be the guy who gives them a chance in this game with his arm. For that to happen, though, the o-line must carve out enough space to keep the whole playbook open.
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Georgia 27 | • Kentucky 16

LSU (-5.5) at Missouri

Alright, how good is Mizzou, really? September was the most encouraging month in Columbia in a long time: The Tigers are 5-0, ranked 21st in the AP poll, and boast the SEC’s only notable nonconference win to date, over Kansas State. (Come to think of it, their Week 4 win over Memphis might rank 2nd in that category, too.) The offense has come to life behind ascending QB Brady Cook, arguably the most improved quarterback in America over the past year, and sophomore WR Luther Burden III, currently the FBS leader in receiving yards. They’ve looked more assured by the week. Is this is a flavor-of-the-month situation? Or is this the weekend they graduate from “pretty good, for Mizzou” to, like, actually good good?

LSU, for its part, is still very much alive in the West despite last week’s shootout loss at Ole Miss, and cannot be completely dismissed from the Playoff race (yet) on the off-chance that it runs the table. Jayden Daniels‘ elite presence behind center make that possibility seem slightly less remote than the 3-2 record implies. But the defense — woof. The Tigers are limping in ranked 108th in scoring defense, 117th in total D and 121st in yards per play allowed. Their only above-par performance on that side of the ball, against Mississippi State, has been more than offset by highly flammable outings against Florida State, Arkansas, and, of course, Ole Miss, which racked up 300+ yards rushing and passing.

Missouri isn’t quite that balanced, but at the rate Cook and Burden are going, against LSU’s secondary they might not need to be.
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LSU 38 | • Missouri 34

Arkansas at Ole Miss (-11.5)

Lately, Arkansas/Ole Miss has been one of the most reliably high-octane dates on the SEC calendar: The average score over the past 8 meetings is Hogs 38, Rebels 36, with 5 games decided by 4 points or less. Only 2 games in that span (in 2019 and ’20) came in under 60 total points.

As for this year, Ole Miss is obviously down to clown, as usual, coming off a wild, 55-49 win over LSU. Arkansas, victim of a 3-game losing streak, may be more reluctant. The Razorbacks’ only touchdowns in last week’s 34-22 loss against Texas A&M came courtesy of 1) a pick-6 by the defense and 2) a garbage-time heave on their final offensive snap.

In the meantime, KJ Jefferson was sacked 7 times, Rocket Sanders was clearly less than 100% after a month-long absence due to a sore knee, and the most promising receiver, true freshman TE Luke Hasz, suffered a season-ending injury. Ole Miss’ defense is a couple rungs below A&M’s, and there’s always the chance that Sanders — who absolutely shredded the Rebels last year in Fayetteville — is due to remind the rest of the conference he’s still a force to be reckoned with. Even with a fully functional Rocket at its disposal, though, the rest of the offense is shooting blanks.
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• Ole Miss 41 | Arkansas 28

Vanderbilt at Florida (-18.5)

For now, at least, Billy Napier‘s Gators are built to win plodding games with defense, field position and a knack for capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes.

A big problem so far, among many others: They’re not forcing any mistakes. Through 5 games Florida has a single takeaway on defense — an interception against Tennessee — tied for fewest in the nation.

Vanderbilt’s offense, on the other hand, can’t stop giving the ball away. The Commodores have committed 11 turnovers over a 4-game losing streak, 4 of which have been returned directly for defensive touchdowns. Coughing up another freebie shouldn’t make any difference in terms of victory or defeat on Saturday, but covering the spread is a different story.
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Florida 33 | • Vanderbilt 17

Western Michigan at Mississippi State (-20.5)

It’s a little random, but it turns out dropping a nondescript MAC opponent smack in the middle of the conference slate is exactly what the Bulldogs needed to wipe the taste of an 0-3 SEC start out of their mouths. (Zach Arnett on the current disposition of the locker room: “I hope we play like an angry football team.”) Looking forward, a win would also send them into an open date on an upbeat note ahead of a couple of must-win games for bowl eligibility against Arkansas and Auburn.

A loss? It’s much too early in Arnett’s tenure to start having that conversation.
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• Mississippi State 37 | Western Michigan 13

Scoreboard

Week 5 record: 6-1 straight-up | 2-5 vs. spread
Season record: 27-8 straight-up | 16-19 vs. spread

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