Breaking down the weekend’s SEC slate, all in one place.

Game of the Week: LSU (-2.5) at Ole Miss

The stakes

Is LSU a contender, or what? Approaching midseason, the jury remains out.

The Tigers’ initial bid for national relevance was a bust: A 14-7 lead against Florida State in the opener collapsed in a 45-24 defeat that was arguably worse than the final score suggests. In the meantime, though, they’ve staked out a plausible claim to the driver’s seat in a suddenly wide-open SEC West. Quarterback Jayden Daniels has looked like an emerging Heisman candidate at the helm of an attack that leads the SEC in total offense and yards per play, turning in 2 of the best performances of his career in wins over Mississippi State and Arkansas.

At No. 13 in the AP poll, LSU still controls its fate in a division that it won in 2022, in a year in which Alabama appears mortal, Auburn is in “rebuilding” purgatory, and Texas A&M just lost its most valuable player for the season. A win in Oxford would represent another major step toward a repeat appearance in Atlanta.

Technically, Ole Miss (3-1) has all the same opportunities, albeit with significantly less momentum. The Rebels’ dark-horse bid in the West is a lot less convincing after last week’s 24-10 smackdown at Alabama in the SEC opener, where they were soundly whipped on both sides of the line of scrimmage and struggled to get a shambolic Bama offense off the field en route to their 8th consecutive L in the series. They haven’t fared much better lately against LSU, dropping 6 of the past 7 while giving up a staggering 46.5 points per game in the losses. If there’s still time to salvage some of the optimism they rode into Tuscaloosa, Saturday might be the last chance.

The stat: 28.5 yards per attempt

That’s Daniels’ average gain this season on passes of 20+ yards downfield, per Pro Football Focus, best in the nation among Power 5 quarterbacks with at least 5 attempts. It also reflects a dramatic improvement in Daniels’ downfield prowess in his second season in OC Mike Denbrock‘s system: In 2022, he averaged a pedestrian 12.3 yards on deep balls, the lowest ypa among full-time SEC starters, completing 16-of-42 attempts for 517 yards and 5 touchdowns. Through 4 games this year, he’s 13-for-18 for 513 yards and 8 touchdowns — 5 of them coming in the past 2 weeks alone.

Between Malik Nabers (8 catches on 11 downfield targets) and Brian Thomas Jr. (4 catches on 6 targets), Daniels has two field-stretching options who are the envy of the rest of the conference. (Nabers, in particular, has feasted the past 2 weeks running slot fade routes against opposing safeties caught in a 1-on-1 mismatch.)

Ole Miss’ secondary, which gave up 3 completions on attempts of 20+ yards in its loss to Alabama, doesn’t have a corner who projects as a favorable man-to-man matchup, much less two. The Rebels can roll the dice on pressuring Daniels, or try to force him to dink and dunk against soft coverage in the hopes that eventually his consistency will waver. Either way, they’re betting against the odds.

The big question: Can Ole Miss run the ball?

Ole Miss boasted the SEC’s most productive rushing offense in 2022, but it’s already safe to say the Rebels will not be retaining that title in ’23. The resident workhorse, sophomore Quinshon Judkins, has yet to get untracked, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry over the first 4 games (down from 5.7 last year) while playing through an unspecified injury. Instead, the leading rusher to date is quarterback Jaxson Dart, who is a fine athlete but no one’s idea of an every-down rushing threat in conference play. The majority of his output on the ground this season has come in a 136-yard outing against Georgia Tech, and the majority of that came on 1 play.

For Ole Miss’ RPO-heavy offense, specifically, the ability (or inability) to establish the run can have make-or-break implications for the passing game: Per PFF, more than 55% of Dart’s passes the past 2 seasons have involved play-action, the highest rate in the SEC both years, and the gap in his efficiency on play-action vs. straight drop-backs is also the widest in the SEC by a mile. So far this year, his play-action attempts have yielded 8.6 yards per attempt more than non-play-action. The passing game is challenged enough by the injury bug that has plagued the receivers and tight ends; if LSU doesn’t feel obliged to respect some combination of Judkins, Dart and all-namer Ulysses Bentley IV between the tackles, making hay through the air becomes that much harder.

The key matchup: Ole Miss OTs Victor Curne and Micah Pettus vs. LSU Edge Harold Perkins Jr.

Ole Miss’ entire offensive line struggled against Alabama, with all 5 starters cited by PFF for allowing at least 1 QB pressure. But Curne and Pettus had it particularly rough, coming in for demerits on 7 combined pressures and 1 sack apiece opposite Bama’s NFL-ready bookends, Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell. It doesn’t get any easier this week: Although LSU insists on using Perkins in multiple roles, he’s still at his best coming off the edge, where he has generated 9 pressures, 2 sacks and two forced fumbles this season on just 50 pass-rushing snaps.

At 6-1, 220 pounds, Perkins can be moved in the run game — a possible explanation for why the Tigers are reluctant to line him up against colossal offensive linemen on a more regular basis. But if he’s allowed to pin his ears back on obvious passing downs, his speed is borderline unfair. Just one more reason Ole Miss should be desperate to stay out of those situations.

The verdict …

I haven’t touched on the major concern for LSU: The secondary. The Tigers rank 11th in the SEC and 83rd nationally in pass efficiency D, entirely as a result of 2 flammable outings against Florida State (359 yards, 4 TDs allowed on 11.2 yards per attempt) and Arkansas (289 yds, 3 TDs on 9.3 per attempt). Ole Miss’ wide receiver rotation is still in flux due to injuries, but if Dart has time to make good decisions there’s little doubt Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr. can scheme up open targets against a very vulnerable back seven.

Still, taking LSU’s pass rush into account that’s a big if, and barring an abrupt regression by Daniels there are no such caveats concerning LSU’s offense. The Tigers have scored on 13-of-18 non-half-ending possessions the past 2 weeks, with no end in sight. They’re going to make plays in the passing game, and if they can sustain their recent improvement on the ground it might be the latest in their ongoing series of offensive bonanzas against Ole Miss’ defense. The only question is whether the Rebels have the firepower to keep up.
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• LSU 38 | Ole Miss 30

Georgia (-14.5) at Auburn

A road trip to Auburn is one of the more notable tests on Georgia’s regular-season schedule, which frankly says a lot less about Auburn at the moment than it does about the schedule. Saturday is the first of 4 true road trips for the defending champs, with 2 of the other 3 coming against perennial underdogs (Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech) whose fans are likely to be outnumbered by the visiting UGA crowd. The only venue that will rival Jordan-Hare for hostility is Neyland Stadium on Nov. 18.

Anyway, no matter where they play, the prospect of the same Auburn offense that failed to score a touchdown in last week’s SEC opener at Texas A&M posing any threat whatsoever to Georgia’s defense is a nonstarter. The Tigers’ best hope of keeping things respectable is to turn up the heat on UGA quarterback Carson Beck, who’s making his first start away from Athens, and hope there’s a turnover or two to be had from his inexperience in a hostile environment. Good luck with that: Between Georgia’s ground game, Auburn’s futility on offense, and Beck’s apparent placidity, he should feel very little need to press even if the afternoon devolves into a mutual slugfest.
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• Georgia 34 | Auburn 9

Alabama (-14.5) at Mississippi State

Alabama’s Jalen Milroe remains one of the most scrutinized quarterbacks in America, but his counterpart on Saturday, Will Rogers, has had a roller-coaster of a September in his own right. In consecutive weeks, Rogers has set a new career low for attempts (17, in a Week 2 win over Arizona), a new career low for passing yards (103, in a Week 3 loss to LSU), and a new career high for passing yards (487, in a Week 4 loss at South Carolina), leaving his trajectory as uncertain as ever. The Bulldogs opened the season by preaching “balance” under new offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay, yet less than a month in, Rogers was back to putting the ball in the air 48 times in a shootout.

His track record against Alabama, at least, has been consistent — consistently grim. In 3 starts against the Tide, Rogers has averaged a meager 4.5 yards per attempt with zero touchdowns and 5 interceptions; altogether, Mississippi State has been outscored in those games 120-15. He only needs 1 touchdown pass to move into a tie with Peyton Manning for 4th place on the SEC career list with 89; if he gets it against Bama, it will be a long-awaited triumph.
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• Alabama 31 | Mississippi State 13

Florida at Kentucky (-1.5)

A key game in the race for 2nd place in the East, and one that promises to be nasty, brutish and short. Since Kentucky turned the corner under Mark Stoops, this series has consistently been one where punting is winning: Over the past 6 meetings, the average score is Wildcats 20, Gators 18, with both sides taking 3 apiece. Assuming neither team is especially eager to put the game on their respective quarterbacks, the throwback, defense-and-field position template should prevail again. A turnover and/or big play on special teams will be the difference.
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• Kentucky 23 | Florida 19

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (-6.5)

The outlook for A&M quarterback Conner Weigman‘s injured foot went from bad to worse this week when further tests revealed he’s likely out for the season, not just a week or two as initially reported. With that, the position is beginning to appear slightly cursed: Weigman is the 3rd A&M starter in as many years to go down before midseason, following Haynes King in 2021 and Max Johnson in ’22. Unlike those two, though, Weigman was actually beginning to inspire some visions of grandeur. He bows out atop the SEC in both Total QBR and overall PFF grade, right on schedule to fulfill his 5-star recruiting hype as a sophomore. His absence is a major blow to the Aggies’ dark-horse aspirations in the West.

As for this weekend, Johnson should be fine. Like a journeyman NFL backup, he takes over as QB1 with a 16-10 career record as a starter, including a 23-21 win over Arkansas last year after replacing an ineffective King; he also generated a spark in last week’s 27-10 win over Auburn, coming of the bench to throw a couple of touchdown passes after Weigman left. Having a seasoned vet to step into the breach in routine games like this is the whole reason Johnson is still around. The big games, on the other hand? That’s a question for next week.
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Texas A&M 24 | • Arkansas 20

South Carolina at Tennessee (-12.5)

South Carolina ambushed Tennessee last November in one of the most stunning results of the entire 2022 season — stunning not only due to the outcome, but even more so due to a career-defining performance by Spencer Rattler, who resurrected his flagging reputation on the strength of a 438-yard, 6-touchdown masterpiece. This time, the Vols see him coming. When his protection has held up, Rattler has been lethal in the early going, including a near-perfect outing (18-for-20 for 288 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) in last week’s 37-30 win over Mississippi State; his emerging rapport with blistering WR Xavier Legette, especially, has been a revelation.

The caveat about the protection, though, is a big one. Rattler is hardly known for his escapability, and in the Gamecocks’ losses to North Carolina and Georgia, the o-line visibly disintegrated in comeback mode. Altogether, Rattler has been sacked more times this season (16) than any other SEC starter, by far. If Tennessee can keep him in predictable passing downs, edge rushers Tyler Baron and James Pearce Jr. can feast.
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Tennessee 37 | • South Carolina 27

Missouri (-13.5) at Vanderbilt

Missouri is 4-0 for the first time in a decade, and just cracked the AP poll (at No. 23) for the first time in 4 years. The last game the Tigers played as a ranked team: An October 2019 loss at Vandy, the first entry in a 6-game skid that cost coach Dave Odom his job. Before you start thinking too hard about history repeating, just remember nobody on that Mizzou team was remotely in the same class of weapon as Luther Burden III.
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Missouri 33 | • Vanderbilt 21

Scoreboard

Week 4 record: 9-0 straight-up | 6-3 vs. spread
Season record: 21-7 straight-up | 14-14 vs. spread