Tennessee Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for 2023

Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Tennessee. We’ll stay with the SEC East all week. Last week, we predicted every game for every SEC West team.

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Finally, it happened.

That’s the best way to sum up the 2022 Tennessee football season. Finally, a victory against Alabama. Finally, a No. 1 ranking. Finally, a national title conversation involving the Vols. Finally, relevance.

Of course, it would’ve been nice for Tennessee fans if “feels like ’98” didn’t die a painful death in Columbia in late-November. But at least it had life.

Josh Heupel had the No. 1 offense in America for a Tennessee team that had its best AP Poll finish in 19 years (No. 6). Winning 11 games and slaying the dragon that was Alabama for the first time since the George W. Bush administration was long overdue.

But in order to be “back,” one must stay relevant. That means moving past the loss of the best Tennessee quarterback since Peyton Manning. It means replacing a top-10 pick on the OL and finding answers when the Biletnikoff Award winner leaves for the NFL.

Can Tennessee use 2022 as a foundation season? Or was it a long overdue one-off season?

Let’s peak into the 2023 Crystal Ball:

The Joe Milton experience begins … again

For the third time, Milton will try his hand at being a Power 5 starter. At Michigan, he lost his job because of on-field performance. At Tennessee in 2021, he had the QB1 title, but then got hurt and eventually lost his job to the more effective Hendon Hooker.

In Year 6, the Milton project will enter its final college chapter. The question isn’t physical ability. Lord knows that Milton’s well-documented arm strength will be on display, and whether it’s 85 or 90 yards, we don’t need any future clarification on how far he can throw a football. It’s far.

The question is if Milton, who took some great steps down the stretch last year in place of the injured Hooker, can become the next prolific Heupel quarterback for an entire season. Above all else, the accuracy has to improve. That will determines whether Heupel has his 6th consecutive top-8 scoring offense. It won’t be whether Milton goes viral for some 83-yard throw in the middle of a game against UConn.

If Milton can’t lock down the starting job and live up to that high standard, he’ll give way to decorated 5-star freshman Nico Iamaleava, who has reportedly been making significant strides in fall camp.

Can Milton maximize his talent and live up to that lofty preseason All-SEC billing? That’s not a guarantee, but he’s as intriguing of a player as there is in the SEC in 2023.

Imagine replacing those receivers and still being loaded

It’s pretty wild to think that aforementioned Biletnikoff Award winner Jalin Hyatt and fellow second day NFL Draft selection Cedric Tillman are both gone, and it still feels like Tennessee has one of the best pass-catching groups in the SEC.

There are 4 legitimate studs to throw to: Bru McCoy, Squirrel White, Ramel Keyton and Oregon transfer Dont’e Thornton all have major expectations.

McCoy is the most proven guy in the room as the former 5-star recruit who played a pivotal role after transferring from USC. Keyton has been there the longest entering Year 5, and no returning pass-catcher on the team had more touchdowns (5) than he did last year. White really took off down the stretch. White only had 1 game with 20 snaps in the first 11 weeks of the season, yet he finished the year with more 40-yard catches of any returning SEC receiver (6). Among all SEC receivers in 2022, only Hyatt had more 40-yard grabs.

And with all that being said, there’s some buzz that Thornton could be the guy who really pops in this offense. The speedy downfield threat might be the best combination of White and McCoy. He doesn’t, however, have the reps with Milton that White does and wasn’t a very high-volume player at Oregon (he had 17 catches for 366 yards in 2023).

No matter who the new go-to guy is, it’s worth noting that each of Heupel’s last 4 offenses all had at least 1 1,000-yard receiver. It feels inevitable that one of those 4 — or maybe someone else — will join that conversation.

Can we get a more consistent version of the Tim Banks defense?

I’ll give Banks credit for a few things. Tennessee was No. 21 in FBS against the run, and it was in the top half of the SEC in yards/play allowed. It had 4 games in which it held a Power 5 opponent to 14 points or less. Tennessee’s defense did what you’d hope any team with a No. 1 offense would do. That is, at least flirt with mediocrity.

But at the same time, it wasn’t exactly a steady unit. The South Carolina game stands out, but the blown lead nearly cost the Vols the Alabama win, and allowing an average of 30 points to Florida and Georgia wasn’t ideal.

Even if Tennessee’s high-powered offense only takes a slight step back, Banks’ unit could benefit from a bit more consistency. The good news is that there’s a lot of experience in that group. It ranks No. 24 in Bill Connelly’s updated percentage of returning production.

In addition to All-SEC linebacker Aaron Beasley and veteran defensive end Tyler Baron, the Vols have a secondary full of seniors. Seniors Doneiko Slaughter, Tamarion McDonald and Kamal Hadden are all back, and Tennessee added BYU corner Gabe Jeudy-Lally.

That group wasn’t as bad as what the raw numbers indicated — Tennessee was No. 127 in passing yards allowed/game but was No. 58 in yards/pass attempt — but it still has to take another step in order for the Vols to stay in the SEC East race.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Virginia in Nashville (W)

In an effort to ease Milton into the offense, Heupel turns to the Jabari Small/Jaylen Wright combination early and often. That opens the door for a long over-the-top connection to White. The Vols kick off the season right where the left off with a blowout, neutral site win against an ACC foe.

Week 2: vs. Austin Peay (W)

Yes, we get the first look of Iamaleava in live action. He only gets to throw a handful of passes in garbage time, but they have the Tennessee faithful buzzing at the end of a lopsided victory.

Week 3: at Florida (L)

It’s been 20 years since Tennessee won in Gainesville. Twenty. Yes, this should be the most lopsided the rivalry has been in Tennessee’s favor during that stretch. No, that doesn’t guarantee that the Vols finally get it done in The Swamp. My thinking? This is the game in which Billy Napier’s hire of DC Austin Armstrong looks like a godsend. Instead of the Vols pushing Florida around in their own building, a pair of Milton overthrows turn into interceptions that set up Gators touchdown drives. The Vols’ lack of defensive discipline proves costly and Florida RB Trevor Etienne runs for 150. Tennessee’s losing streak in The Swamp officially passes the 2-decade mark.

Week 4: vs. UTSA (W)

Yes, it’s a tricky matchup for Tennessee. It’s an 11-win team that ranks in the top 1/4 in FBS in percentage of returning production. But after a deflating loss at Florida, the Vols come out swinging. Thornton and Keyton both get loose for long scores while McCoy continues to be a matchup nightmare in the intermediate passing game. Milton plays his most impressive game of the young season and the Vols bounce back in a big way.

Week 5: vs. South Carolina (L)

You thought last year was a fluke? Nope. With so many of those pieces back from last year’s stunner in Columbia, South Carolina does the unthinkable again. This time, Spencer Rattler doesn’t play perfect. He throws 2 interceptions, but he also delivers touchdown passes to South Carolina WR Juice Wells and tight end transfer Trey Knox. A revenge game for Tennessee follows a frustrating script. Milton’s fast start fades and Tennessee is forced to turn into a 1-dimensional offense. The Gamecocks pounce on a pair of fumbles, the second of which sets up a game-winning field goal in the final minute. The Vols lose at home for the first time since November 2021.

Week 6: Bye

Week 7: vs. Texas A&M (W)

All of A&M’s good early-season vibes that yielded a top-10 ranking go out the window in Knoxville. Fresh off a bye week, Heupel recognizes the brutal 3-game stretch the Aggies are at the end of, and he makes it a ground-heavy attack. Wright, Small and Milton all prove to be a nightmare for A&M to slow down. A game that enters as a juicy top-15 matchup turns into a blowout in a hurry. A&M limps into the bye week while Tennessee plows through to its Alabama showdown.

Week 8: at Alabama (L)

It’s not an Alabama revenge tour if there’s not, you know, revenge. I don’t think it’s realistic to expect Alabama to totally flip the script on the high-scoring Heupel offense, but I see this becoming a big Malachi Moore game. Instead of letting the slot receiver dominate all game like Hyatt did last year, Nick Saban makes sure those mismatches aren’t there and Milton ends up forcing throws. Turnovers kill the Vols’ chances of becoming the first team to beat Alabama in consecutive years since 2014-15 Ole Miss.

Week 9: at Kentucky (W)

If there’s a coach in the SEC who has totally baffled the Mark Stoops-Brad White defense, it’s Heupel. A 45-point showing in Lexington was followed by Tennessee’s 44-point knockout last year in Knoxville. The chunk plays tipped the scales in the Vols’ favor both times. This time, it’s not necessarily an offensive explosion from the Vols, but chunk plays again prove to be the difference. White gets free for 2 long touchdowns and UK quarterback Devin Leary struggles to keep pace. Tennessee keeps Kentucky at an uphill climb all day and uses the 3-headed rushing attack late to keep the Cats off the field for a potential game-tying drive. Heupel improves to 3-0 against Stoops.

Week 10: vs. UConn (W)

The Iamaleava game. It’s happening. On the heels of a physical 3-game stretch, Heupel announces early in the week that Iamaleava will get his first career start and that Milton will return the following weekend. Early on, UConn looks like a team thriving off disrespect. The Huskies intercept Iamaleava on his first drive and go into the second quarter up 10-7. But the Vols’ ground attack then does the heavy lifting. Iamaleava finds White streaking down the right sideline to put an exclamation point on his first career victory as a starter.

Week 11: at Mizzou (W)

A well-rested Milton comes out firing against a risk-taking Mizzou secondary. That proves costly for the home team. Mizzou bites on a couple of hitch-and-go routes and White gets loose twice in the first half. That puts Mizzou QB Sam Horn in some obvious passing situations, which allows that experienced Tennessee secondary to play aggressively. Horn is picked off 3 times in his second consecutive rough showing while the Vols avoid a trap game ahead of Georgia.

Week 12: vs. Georgia (L)

Last year, I told anyone who would listen that Tennessee was gonna go into Athens and win. Foot, meet mouth. Maybe I was a year early on that, but I can’t double down. A back-and-forth first half has Neyland buzzing with the Vols showing offensive life earlier than last year’s loss in Athens. But unlike last year when Georgia was content to grind it out amidst rainy conditions, Kirby Smart leaves no doubt. Georgia QB Carson Beck picks apart the Tennessee secondary to continue his stellar season, and Dan Jackson makes a ball-separating hit that leads to a pivotal turnover late. Heupel still can’t get over the Georgia hump.

Week 13: vs. Vanderbilt (W)

Dare I say, for the first time in 7 years, we get a relatively close game. On the heels of an emotional loss to Georgia, Tennessee doesn’t come out firing on all cylinders. CJ Taylor, who reportedly turned down NIL opportunities to transfer to Tennessee, has a big day all over the field. He has an interception and a sack of Milton to keep the Vols’ offense flustered. But once again, Tennessee turns to the ground attack to save the day. This time, however, it’s Dylan Sampson who steals the show. He reaches pay dirt twice and the Vols pull away for a 35-21 win.

2023 projection: 8-4 (4-4), 3rd in SEC East

#Vols

A couple things.

I know that 8-4 would be considered a setback. But playing in a Florida bowl game with a potential win No. 9 and a spot in the AP Top 25 up for grabs wouldn’t be a sign that the sky is falling. It would be a reminder that these things aren’t always linear. Repeating last year’s success is going to be extremely difficult with the pieces the Vols lost on offense. Having to get through Alabama and Georgia on an annual basis is a challenge that only a handful of teams can speak on.

What Tennessee can establish this year is that even a project like Milton can turn into a star with Heupel. It can continue to send a loud message to transfer receivers that it’s an ideal location. To have 20 wins over a 2-year stretch would be something the Vols haven’t done in 19 years. That’s still significant.

But yeah, Heupel’s approval rating would take a hit if he went 0-3 against Alabama, Florida and Georgia. If it’s more struggles in Gainesville and another humbling loss to Georgia, some will begin to wonder what exactly his long-term upside is. That comes with the territory. It’s what he signed up for. A 2-7 start against those 3 teams isn’t what he or any Tennessee fan has in mind.

I get that. I also get that life could be a whole lot worse. If the Vols are playing fun, high-scoring games while actually looking the part of a Top 25 team throughout the season, that’s not a sign that the program is reverting back to irrelevance.

It just won’t feel like ’98.