A game like Alabama-Michigan State is likely to be a number of things. Physical, for one. Tough, for sure. It’s the sort of game that spits in the face of what Gary Danielson calls “modern-day college football,” one that features rugged defenses and gut-tough run games.

Games like these tend to come down to turnovers and special teams. We’ll get to turnovers later, because Alabama’s special teams are a curious case.

It’s not fair to say the Crimson Tide’s kicking game is a weakness. Alabama has an all-SEC punter in sophomore J.K. Scott, even if the lanky kid from Colorado has experienced something of a “down year” as a sophomore (a down year for Scott means averaging just over 44 yards per kick, with a long of 59 yards, 17 50-plus kicks and 18 downed inside the 20).

Alabama has steadily improved its return game. Kenyan Drake was averaging over 22 yards per kickoff return before his injury against Mississippi State, and Cyrus Jones exploded late in the season as a punt returner, with three returns for touchdowns. One of those broke open a scoreless tie against Mississippi State.

https://youtu.be/HvXiTJovyX8

Even the most obvious thing — Alabama’s struggle to kick field goals — is actually not as much a weakness as you’re expecting. Heading into Thursday night’s game against Michigan State, Adam Griffith is 21 of 29 for the season, nearly 73 percent. And it’s worth noting that his percentage increases dramatically after the first four kicks of the season (all misses).

In fact, one could argue that Griffith was the real MVP of the Auburn game, with five made field goals in five attempts. That number looks even better when you consider that two of them were from 50 and 47 yards, the latter of which effectively iced the football game in the fourth quarter, and all five came at Jordan-Hare Stadium, the same site as the nightmarish 2013 game, when Alabama kickers missed five kicks, the final of which led to … well, you know already.

What this is really about, in the main, is confidence. Ask any Alabama fan if they’re confident in their kicker, and you’ll probably see a big heavy sigh followed by a lot of vigorous nodding. Alabama fans probably haven’t trusted a kicker since Leigh Tiffin held the job, and he only really inspired confidence because in the fan base because of his pedigree.

Bama’s counterpart in the upcoming CFP semifinal, Michigan State, probably won’t turn any heads with its kicking game, either. Macgarrett Kings and R.J. Shelton lead the kick and punt return units, respectively, but Shelton averages fewer yards per return than Drake (21.3), and Kings only returned eight punts all year for an average of 3 yards per touch.

MSU’s Michael Geiger is 12-for-19 on field goal attempts this season, with a long of 47 and two kicks that were blocked. And punter Jake Hartbarger is averaging just over 42 yards per punt, with 20 downed inside the 20 and a long of 61 yards.

These two teams look pretty similar in virtually every facet of the game, which means it’s likely to come down to kicking.

Alabama appears to have a slight advantage, but please don’t tell that to any Alabama fans. Seriously.