Alabama had the most nominees for this season’s Chuck Bednarik Award watch list with four players receiving early honors. Senior safety Eddie Jackson, senior linebackers Reuben Foster and Tim Williams, and senior defensive end Jonathan Allen were named to the preseason watch list.

The Big Ten has captured the award a disproportionate number of times. Seven players from the conference have earned the award out of 21 total years. Maryland’s E.J. Henderson and Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh also won the award, although both respective schools were members of other conferences at the time. Meanwhile, SEC players have earned the award just three times.

Typically, the award is given to upperclassmen, although LSU’s Tyrann Mathieu won the award in 2011 as a sophomore. This year’s watch list confirms that notion with four sophomores named to the watch list, and the remaining 86 players being either juniors or seniors.

With all of that in mind, how good of a chance do the Alabama players have of winning the award? Who of the four is most likely to win?

An Alabama player has never won the award before, so the outlook isn’t overly optimistic. While the Butkus Award is littered with Alabama linebackers from Derrick Thomas to C.J. Mosley, the Bednarik Award is a little more eccentric in results. While truly overwhelming players have earned the award, such as Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald, some winners have been, well, underwhelming.

Plenty of outstanding players earned semifinalist spots last season, including Alabama’s Reggie Ragland, as well as Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett, LSU’s Kendell Beckwith and Florida’s Vernon Hargreaves III, among others.

Temple linebacker Tyler Matakevich won the award after a fourth straight season of producing more than 100 tackles. Arizona linebacker Scooby Wright won the award in 2014. Both players weren’t drafted until the seventh round in this year’s NFL Draft.

Another matter not in the Alabama players’ favor is no returning player was a semifinalist last season. Meanwhile, Garrett will very likely have a monster season at Texas A&M and is already on the award committee’s radar. Likewise, Beckwith should amass a substantial number of tackles this season to give him greater consideration for the award.

The award has often gone to linebackers, although this year’s list is littered with strong secondary players.

LSU has had two strong secondary players win the award back-to-back with Patrick Peterson in 2010 and Mathieu in 2011. Among the players with a strong chance to make the semifinalist list come October 31: Michigan sophomore safety Jabrill Peppers, Iowa senior cornerback Desmond King, Florida junior cornerback Jalen Tabor, Georgia junior safety Dominick Sanders and Alabama’s Jackson.

Based on the award history and last season’s statistics, King would figure to have the best chance as he plays against Big Ten offenses, is a senior and recorded eight interceptions last season.

As previously mentioned, Garrett is the frontrunner this season from a pass-rush standpoint, and really, among defensive linemen period. Garrett led the SEC last season with 12.5 sacks. Even then, Garrett admitted he didn’t perform up to his own expectations. He is setting his sights high this season in what will likely be his final collegiate year.

Alabam’s Jonathan Allen and Tim Williams are the most capable players of challenging Garrett. Allen was second in the SEC with 12 sacks and Williams was third with 10.5 sacks. Williams was one of the stars of the A-Day spring game, constantly disrupting Alabama’s quarterbacks.

Early reports indicate he has worked hard on developing a more complete game. Many times he was employed last season as a third down pass-rush presence, but he is sure to see the field a lot more this season. There is some speculation he may be the best pass-rusher Alabama has seen since one of the all-time greats, Derrick Thomas.

While Williams probably has the best chance of the four to win the award, Allen could be the dark horse. Producing 12 sacks is no minor feat, and Allen said he returned for his senior season to focus on also stopping the run. With that comes the opportunity to stuff the stat sheet with a high number of tackles.

The last remaining Alabama player on the watch list is Reuben Foster. Because there have been so many great Alabama linebackers to not earn the award, the outcast for Foster is not positive. While it seems likely he will have a strong season and be a leader for a stout Alabama defense, his odds of winning this particular award don’t appear strong from the outset.

Couple that with the fact that he will be competing against last season’s semifinalist Kendell Beckwith and Ohio State’s Raekwon McMillan, and it’s easy to see that Foster faces an uphill battle. Foster had 73 total tackles last season, while McMillan produced 119 tackles and Beckwith had 84 total tackles.

The award committee is looking for numbers in line with McMillan. This isn’t to say Foster can’t produce those numbers, but Alabama doesn’t often have one individual leading the league in tackles.

In the end, all four of the Alabama players named to the Bednarik watch list are talented and will no doubt play a big role for the defense this season, but don’t set your sights too high on any of them winning the award.