As the 81st Iron Bowl approaches, Alabama is favored to beat Auburn by more than two touchdowns. Considering how good the Tigers have been on defense this season, that line seems a little high.

AU will not only cover the spread against the No. 1 team in the country, it will keep the game close enough to pull off an upset. Here are five reasons why Auburn will beat Alabama on Saturday:

1. Alabama will make the CFP even it loses: At 11-0, Alabama is the undisputed No. 1 team in this week’s College Football rankings. The three teams behind them – Ohio State, Michigan and Clemson – all have one loss.

The Buckeyes or the Wolverines will have two losses after they face each other on Saturday, so the loser will be out of Playoff contention. Even if Alabama loses to Auburn, the Crimson Tide will be one of a handful of one-loss teams, and arguably the best one.

All Nick Saban’s team would have to do is beat Florida convincingly in the SEC Championship Game – which it did a year ago – and it would return to the CFP. Unlike last season, when Alabama had to keep on winning after losing to Ole Miss, Bama is in a completely different predicament.

We’re not saying that the Tide will be looking ahead to the Gators, but they could lose to the Tigers and still make the Playoff. Even Nick Saban is aware of that possibility, but you can bet the ranch he has his team focused on completing an undefeated season.

2. This game actually means more for Auburn: Auburn actually has a bigger incentive to win. While Alabama could still reach the CFP if it loses, Auburn would strengthen its case for a New Year’s Six bowl if it wins.

With a victory, the Tigers would finish 9-3 overall and 6-2 in the SEC, and would become the first team to hand the Crimson Tide a loss. Plus two of Auburn’s three losses will have been against ranked teams (Clemson, Texas A&M), and only one its defeats will have been by more than six points.

Auburn’s 13-7 loss at Georgia doesn’t look good, but the rest of its work this year could help it reach the Sugar Bowl. There’s a chance that Florida could end the season with losses to Florida State and Alabama, which would give the Gators four defeats.

Even if Tennessee finishes 9-3, its resume won’t be as impressive as Auburn’s. Plus, Texas A&M would be 8-4 if it loses to LSU tonight, which is not an unrealistic scenario.

On top of that, Georgia and LSU already have four losses apiece. So, if Auburn beats Alabama, it could very well be Sugar Bowl-bound.

Considering Auburn’s 1-2 start this season, that’s some carrot. It just might be enough to propel the Tigers to victory.

3. After Ole Miss, Auburn will be Alabama’s toughest challenge this season: Alabama’s run defense is the toughest Auburn will face. But the Tigers’ ground game is the most challenging attack the Tide will take on this year, so something will have to give.

Jeremy Pruitt has done an impressive job in replacing Kirby Smart, as the Crimson Tide are allowing just under 69 yards rushing yards per game. But Auburn has gotten some good news this week.

In addition to Kerryon Johnson getting another week to recover from the sprained ankle he suffered against Mississippi State on Oct. 8, Kam Pettway — the SEC’s second-leading rusher — is expected to play against Alabama after missing the past two games with a leg injury. It’s unclear if Sean White – who is batting an injury to his throwing shoulder – will start, but if might be to Auburn’s advantage if he doesn’t.

Auburn is way too predictable and one-dimensional on offense – the Tigers run 70 percent of the time – but with an injured White and two other QBs (Jeremy Johnson and John Franklin III) who haven’t proven they can throw the ball effectively, AU will have little choice but to stick with its bread and butter while trying to keep the ball away from Jalen Hurts and company.

Not only will the Tigers run for more than 69 yards, they’ll reach triple figures, gaining enough to help them prevail.

4. Auburn’s men of Steele will rise to the occasion: As good as Auburn’s rushing attack has been, the Tigers’ defense has been the story this season. When you consider where Auburn was on defense in 2014-15, what it has done under first-year coordinator Kevin Steele has been impressive.

The most eye-opening stat pertains to Auburn’s rushing defense. Alabama has surrendered the fewest rushing TDs (3) in the SEC this season, and Auburn is right behind Bama, having yielded four.

But what has jumped out about Auburn is those scores occurred in the Tigers’ first three games. That’s right. AU has not allowed a rushing TD over its past eight games – a claim that even Alabama can’t make.

Switching gears a bit, Hurts has had a phenomenal freshman season running the Crimson Tide’s offense, and as a dual-threat QB, he presents quite a challenge. But so far this season, Auburn has held its own against other dual threats.

In two of the Tigers’ losses, the results were mixed. Auburn forced Deshaun Watson into two picks in a 19-13 loss in its season opener before Trevor Knight led Texas A&M to a 29-16 victory on the Plains two weeks later.

But AU beat two other teams – Mississippi State and Ole Miss – with dual threat QBs, which should have prepared them somewhat for what Hurts can do. But Steele and Auburn’s defensive line – which has been outstanding this season – should be up to task.

5. Malzahn will get the job done … again: It’s pretty amazing how Auburn’s and LSU’s seasons turned on Sept. 24, the game Rhett Lashlee took over play-calling duties from Gus Malzahn, and AU was able to escape with an 18-13 victory behind Daniel Carlson’s six field goals. That was also the night LSU needed one more second to win; Les Miles was fired the next day.

If hiring Steele to be his defensive coordinator was Malzahn’s best move of the year, then letting Lashlee call plays has definitely his second-best. Since that switch, Auburn’s offense has taken off, thanks to Pettway’s rapid development and solid blocking by the offensive line.

However, as well as this season has gone for Auburn, Malzahn still has some things to prove. This will be his fourth game against a Pruitt-led defense; he’s lost the first three, so has to get over that hump.

In addition, although Malzahn edged Saban and Alabama thanks to the Kick-Six, that victory still feels fluky three years later. It would be nice to see him beat the best coach in the sport without the benefit of a 100-yard return following a missed field goal.

Letting Lashlee take the reins on offense was a big step for Malzahn. But finally outcoaching Pruitt and Saban will show just how far Auburn’s head coach has come.