In a few short years, a new rivalry in the state of Florida will be born. A hungry, AAC school will start a 3-game series against the big in-state power.

No, UCF isn’t taking on Florida. As entertaining as that would be, it wouldn’t make a lot of sense.

What did make a lot of sense for the Gators was scheduling a series with the other in-state AAC squad, USF. Beginning in 2022, Florida and USF will begin a 3-game series that’ll have 2 games in Gainesville and 1 game in Tampa. When they meet in 2022, it will be just the second time.

So why is it finally happening now? And why not add UCF to really try and stop some of the Knights’ momentum?

Well, it’s really quite simple.

Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

When a Power 5 team schedules a true road game in nonconference play, more times than not, there’s a major recruiting benefit. Alabama scheduled the home-and-home series with Texas, which, next to Florida, has more prep talent than any state in America. In the past 2 years alone, lesser Power 5 programs like Indiana, Illinois and Maryland all traveled for weekday games against a Group of 5 school based in Florida.

Why did they agree to do that? Recruiting.

Florida obviously isn’t a lesser-known Power 5 school, but there are some big-time benefits to re-establishing a presence in a recruiting area that the Gators need to win. The new coaching staff recognizes the importance of doing some work in Tampa. Perhaps losing a recruit like 5-star offensive lineman Nicholas Petit-Frere — a guy the Gators thought they had heading into signing day — confirmed the belief that success in the Tampa area isn’t a given.

Just because Florida signed elite Tampa-area recruits like Vernon Hargreaves and Dante Fowler doesn’t mean that the Gators, with a new coaching staff, still have a true presence a one of the key battleground cities. In fact, since Hargreaves signed in 2013, the Gators averaged just 6 Tampa/St. Petersburg recruits per class in the past 5 years.

So yeah, I think that has something to do with it.

Winning Tampa isn’t necessarily about stealing recruits from USF in the same way that winning Orlando isn’t about stealing recruits from UCF. Could Florida beating the brakes off USF convince a Tampa recruit who gets a late offer from the Gators that he should come to Gainesville? Perhaps, though that isn’t the primary focus.

With all the local Florida fans in Tampa, it could feel more like a pro-Gator crowd than a true road atmosphere. The Gators also get a pair of home games against a Group of 5 school that it will have significantly outmatched in talent (at least it will by 2022).

And even if they do get upset in one of those games, the odds that USF steals 2 of 3 games after Mullen has had 5-plus years in Gainesville is extremely unlikely. The deck is stacked in Florida’s favor to prevent any chance of USF looking like an equal program by the time the series concludes.

It’s also a nice way for Dan Mullen to spread the Florida brand while also silencing the question about “why the Gators won’t play any of the Group of 5 in-state schools anymore” (Florida did play the likes of USF, Florida A&M, FAU, FIU and UCF in the past 15 years, but none was on a future schedule).

This all comes down to Mullen’s desire to win the state for recruiting and fan support, which is of the utmost importance given that Florida State, Miami, USF, UCF and even FAU have coaches entering their first, second or third seasons with plenty of hype. The USF series checks another box in that department.

Look at what Florida has scheduled in non-conference play just within the state in the next decade:

  • 2018 — at FSU
  • 2019 — vs. Miami (in Orlando); vs. FSU
  • 2020 — at FSU
  • 2021 — vs. FSU
  • 2022 — vs. USF; at FSU
  • 2023 — at USF; vs. FSU
  • 2024 — at FSU
  • 2025 — vs. USF; vs. FSU
  • 2026 — at FSU
  • 2027 — vs. FSU

I know what you’re probably thinking. If scheduling USF made sense now, why not add a bunch of matchups with UCF, too?

There’s a lot more downside than upside right now.

While Orlando has had plenty of talent come out and is often another key battleground within the state, it hasn’t had as many big-time recruits as Tampa (yes, I realize Martez Ivey was a big-time Orlando-area recruit).

On top of that, Orlando is loaded with Gators fans even after UCF just had its best season in program history while Florida stumbled to one of its most embarrassing season in program history (I live in Orlando, so I’m not just basing that on some preconceived narrative).

Even if there was some sudden increased need to capitalize on the Orlando market, Florida already plays Miami at the Citrus Bowl to kick off 2019. That game will do more for bragging rights or recruiting than a road trip to play at UCF, and without the potential embarrassment because Miami looks like it’s back on the rise with Mark Richt.

On the flip side, maybe UCF wouldn’t even want to schedule a series that resembled what USF just agreed to with Florida. If UCF really believes it is the national champs, the thought could be that scheduling anything less than a home-and-home is weak.

Besides, nobody is calling for a Florida-UCF game. Let UCF be Alabama’s annoying itch on its back that it can’t quite reach.

Florida made a move that makes a lot of sense for its short- and long-term future. It might have been a bit of a surprise to the casual fan who is used to the big state school ignoring the talented, Group of 5 program, but in the fashion that the series will play out, it all adds up.

Mullen can do speaking tours across the state every year if he wants. That’s all well and good, but he knows the best way to build fan support and establish some key recruiting inroads is by playing and beating the in-state schools. In time, maybe they’ll revisit a UCF matchup.

For now, USF made more sense for the Gators. Will it generate the buzz that the annual Florida State matchup does? No, but it’ll serve its purpose.

If we’re lucky, we’ll have a sweet new rivalry trophy in no time.