Jim McElwain's first season at Florida: Recent SEC context

There may be hints this year that suggest whether or not Jim McElwain will become a good head coach at the University of Florida.

But when we look back at the encyclopedia entry (OK, Wikipedia page) of Florida’s 2015 football season, the win-loss record is unlikely to be predictive of whether or not McElwain ultimately succeeded.

A quick study of first-year head coaches at the biggest SEC programs (Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Florida, Georgia and Tennessee) since 2001 proves as much. (We threw in Steve Spurrier’s debut at South Carolina in ’05 for good measure.)

SEC COACHING DEBUTS AT MAJOR PROGRAMS SINCE 2001

Auburn’s Gene Chizik went 8-5 during his debut, but he won a national championship his second year with Cam Newton. Chizik lost a combined 14 games the next two seasons, such a colossal flameout that he didn’t even get a defensive coordinator job again until ’15 (North Carolina).

Nick Saban in the post-Mike Shula days ranks in the bottom half of this list, losing to no less than the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks in Tuscaloosa in ’07. Two years later, Saban won the first of three national championships with the Tide.

The list makes sense at least in most cases, as Les Miles (11-2) and Urban Meyer (9-3) compiled two of the best records in their first years at LSU and Florida, respectively, while Will Muschamp (7-6) and Derek Dooley (6-7) didn’t fare so well at Florida and Tennessee.

The Gators aren’t as bad off as Butch Jones (following Dooley’s accidental sabotage of the roster) or Shula (who arrived during NCAA sanctions after Dennis Franchione left the program in the lurch). So McElwain needs to at least make a bowl game to avoid mutiny and keep the natives from sharpening their spears.

But wins and losses won’t be the best measuring stick for the direction of the Gators football team under McElwain in ’15.

• Signs of life and identity on offense. Florida endured a rotating cast of offensive coordinators and systems during Muschamp’s tenure, seemingly switching out playbooks more often than a fugitive changes clothes. Despite a loose directive to be physical and pound the ball on the ground, the unit suffered an identity crisis under Muschamp. In particular, McElwain must unmoor the passing game. He can’t afford to wait until he can recruit and develop his own quarterback, either. He must choose between Treon Harris (more mobile and with SEC experience) and Will Greir (a better fit for McElwain’s typical offense), and then show the world that one of them will become capable at least by ’16.
• Build depth and establish himself as a major player in recruiting. One of the biggest reasons that few expect Florida to contend for an SEC East title in ’15 — spite of one of the nation’s best secondaries and playmakers at several other spots — is a lack of depth. It’s trite to say that it’s tough to get through an SEC schedule without a strong two- and three-deep, but there are challenges throughout this roster, in particular at linebacker and offensive line. McElwain’s early returns as a recruiter have been shaky, as he seems to be collecting three-star talents as if he were coaching at Kentucky. But there’s still time between now and February for him to make inroads with some coveted talents and begin to shore up positions of need.
• Make Florida cool again. More and more, strong marketing is essential in college football — in recruiting, ticket sales, fan satisfaction, creating buzz and other areas. In Knoxville, Tenn., Butch Jones has played that game masterfully, mobilizing Vols fans and restoring pride in the program’s tradition. McElwain doesn’t have to be Jones if he returns the team to winning football games in bunches. But it would help if he could restore the Gators as a destination program nationally and an attractive place for the myriad of fast-twitch skill players that emerge every year from the Sunshine State.