Which SEC freshman will rush for 1,000 yards in 2016?

Last season was a dry one for freshmen running backs.

In the three previous seasons, six different freshmen rushed for more than 1,000 yards, but in 2015, no rookie in the SEC could get there.

SEC PLAYERS WITH 1,000 RUSHING YARDS AS FRESHMEN*

*In last five years

Reaching the 1,000-yard mark is no easy feat. It takes a lot of work, a lot of talent, a good offensive line, the right offense, and sometimes, it takes a little bit of luck.

It’s not always easy to predict either. More often than not, the players with the most preseason potential have a mediocre season, while the ones we haven’t even considered make the biggest splash.

You never really know who will hit their groove until it happens. But there’s no harm in trying to predict who may put their name in the record books.

We recently ranked the top five running backs entering the SEC this fall as freshmen. (Devin White has since been moved to linebacker for LSU)

1. B.J. Emmons, Alabama
2. Devwah Whaley, Arkansas
3. Elijah Holyfield, Georgia
4. Carlin Fils-Aime, Tennessee

As we mentioned, a lot of factors go into a successful rushing season, so let’s take a look at those factors as they apply to the top four freshmen running backs joining the SEC this fall.

OPPORTUNITY

Helps: Emmons, Whaley
Hurts: Holyfield, Fils-Aime

Whaley has the biggest opportunity out of these five. With Alex Collins making his new home with the Seahawks, and the rest of the backfield injured, Arkansas is in need of a new feature back, and Whaley is the man for the job.

Emmons won’t arrive on campus until this summer, so he will have to move fast if he wants to be the Tide’s No. 2, but after seeing Damien Harris’ inconsistent performance throughout the spring, he may not have to do much to jump Harris in the depth chart. The big question will be whether or not Emmons can hit the 1,000-yard mark as Bo Scarbrough’s backup.

Unfortunately for Holyfield and Fils-Aime, they’re sitting in line behind some pretty outstanding backs. Holyfield would have to surpass Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, and Fils-Aime would have to leapfrog either Jalen Hurd or Alvin Kamara to get any carries at all.

ELITE NATURAL ABILITY

Helps: Emmons, Whaley
Hurts: Fils-Aime

Emmons is coming into Tuscaloosa as the highest ranked running back in the 2016 class. And while he may not stand as tall as Derrick Henry or Kenyan Drake, he is still a strong runner. According to his high school coach, Emmons is fast and powerful, and he should be a great fit at Alabama.

It’s no surprise that Hogs fans were excited about Whaley committing to Arkansas. He is fast and he’s physical. At 6-foot and 220 pounds, Whaley can hold his own against big defenders, and he’s bound to leave his mark against them. In his senior year of high school he rushed for 1,530 yards and 21 TDs. Can he do it again at the college level?

Fils-Aime’s biggest weakness is his size. At 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds, he stands to get more than a little roughed up in the SEC. In his last year of high school he ran for 1,505 yards and 23 TDs, but college-level play is going to be different, and it will take him a couple of years to bulk up and settle in.

GREAT OFFENSIVE LINE PLAY

Helps: None
Hurts: Emmons, Whaley

The Crimson Tide offensive line won the inaugural Joe Moore Award for the being the best in the country in 2015, but it doesn’t look like the Tide will have the best this season. Replacing C Ryan Kelly and OT Dominick Jackson has proven to be a tall order, and the struggling line gave up 14 sacks in the spring game. If this line doesn’t improve, no Alabama running back will get close to the 1,000-yard mark in 2016.

Arkansas is going to have to rebuild its offensive line in 2016. And it has to do so under a new offensive line coach, no less. This will be no easy task for the Hogs, and if new offensive line coach Kurt Anderson can’t get the job done, Whaley won’t have a shot at the 1,000-yard benchmark.

RUN-ORIENTED OFFENSE

Helps: All
Hurts: None

This is the SEC. We run the ball here. Sure, Georgia QB Jacob Eason is probably the best passer in the SEC, Arkansas QB Austin Allen is expected to be the carbon copy of his big brother, and Tennessee QB Joshua Dobbs is a seasoned veteran with big potential. And yes, they are going to play a significant role in their respective offenses. But the run game is still the strength of the SEC offenses, and all five of the backs have that in their favor.

CONCLUSION

Overall, Whaley is best set up for success in 2016. He will be the first to get significant playing time without having to wait for someone to get injured. He’s an elite running back, and he’s in an offense that likes to run. As long as the Razorbacks can get the offensive line in order, Whaley’s future is in his own hands.