The NFL draft is a funny thing to project.

A player can be removed from the pre-draft rankings board of 31 NFL teams, cast out as too much of an injury risk or off-field liability, and still get selected in the first round.

That’s an extreme and unrealistic scenario, but there’s a saying that rings true each year: all it takes is one.

One general manager, one scout, one person of influence in the personnel department for a single NFL team, can become enamored with a player’s skills, and a player can get drafted way above where the consensus media prediction places him.

Or there may be something behind the scenes — work ethic, a legal problem that hasn’t been made public, any number of things — that the public isn’t aware of that causes a player to slide well beyond a projection.

But we are saturated with coverage and information, so we’re able to make an educated guess on a player’s stock.

Here’s a look at some of the SEC players who may be crawling up draft boards, and some who may be slipping, as we storm toward the first round on Thursday.

STOCK UP

  • RB Todd Gurley, Georgia: The buzz around Gurley in the first round has picked up considerably after he re-visited Indianapolis to get his knee examined, as teams reportedly feel more confident about his recovery.
  • WR Chris Conley, Georgia: One of the surprise athletic freaks of the NFL Combine, Conley has floated from borderline draft pick to someone who may even threaten getting picked late in the third round.
  • OL La’el Collins, LSU: Most NFL-worthy offensive linemen from the SEC are forces in the run game. But Collins is one of the strongest, most brutal run-blockers in years. The fact that he can play tackle (at least on the right side) or guard is just a bonus.
  • DE/OLB Dante Fowler, Florida: A foot injury has raised slight concerns about Missouri’s Shane Ray, and Nebraska’s Randy Gregory tested positive for marijuana at the Combine. Meanwhile, Fowler has all but locked up the “most valued pass rusher” title for this draft.
  • DE/OLB Bud Dupree, Kentucky: If there’s one challenger to Fowler, it’s Dupree, whom scouts are beginning to view as an overlooked standout who didn’t get enough credit on a below-average team. Dupree fits the hybrid NFL role well and is tremendous dropping back in coverage.

STOCK DOWN

  • RB Josh Robinson, Mississippi State: Just a few months ago, Robinson finished third in the SEC in rushing, a lovable bowling ball on at one time the No. 1 team in the country. But his measurable athleticism was disappointing, running backs have been devalued in the NFL and the ’15 draft class is loaded at the position. Robinson would do well to get drafted on the third day.
  • QB/CB Nick Marshall, Auburn: A jack of all trades — emergency quarterback, punt returner, corner, safety and special teams coverage guy — Marshall may be the master of none. One he seemed like a sure thing to get drafted as a corner on the third day, but several mock drafts now project him as an undrafted free agent, which makes sense given how much of a project player he’ll be in the NFL.
  • CB Jalen Collins, LSU: The revelation that he failed several drug tests in college coupled with his recent foot surgery has Collins sliding down many mock draft projections, maybe out of the first round. But NFL teams surely knew about the drug tests already and may never have labeled him as a first-round grade, so his stock may only be “down” in the eyes of the public.
  • DE/OLB Shane Ray, Missouri: Ray recently seemed like a lock to get drafted in the Top 10 overall. But getting pulled over and then cited for marijuana possession on Monday morning — three days before you’re set to receive life-altering money — screams poor decision-making. Combined with concerns about a lingering foot injury, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Ray fall out of the first round altogether.
  • DE/OLB Markus Golden, Missouri: At one time early last season, at least in the media, at least second- or third-round buzz surrounded Golden. He has a relentless motor, which served him well in college and is a great trait, but lacks top-end burst and explosiveness that NFL talent evaluators like to see at the position. He became a much better run defender in ’14, but still needs to learn to shed blocks and work through traffic.
  • Darius Philon, Arkansas: The early entrant has great upside as an interior pass rusher in a 4-3 front who knows how to fit into cracks and use his quickness. But he needs to get stronger at the point of attack, and reports say he did not interview well at the NFL Combine, coming off “as immature, uninterested and even combative,” Matt Miller the Bleacher Report relayed. He may have to settle for being a third-day pick.