It’s easy to look at 2015 as a telling year for Kevin Sumlin and his future at Texas A&M.

Sumlin enters his fourth season after an 8-5 record in 2014 and with a roster mostly consisting of his own recruits.

In the modern era of Texas A&M football, beginning in 1982 when the Aggies hired Jackie Sherrill away from Pittsburgh and he began the “12th Man” tradition, the fourth season in College Station has been an indicator for what to expect long term.

Sherrill opened his A&M career with back-to-back 5-6 seasons, but finished 10-2 by his fourth and was well on his way to making the Aggies a consistent national power. He beat Texas five consecutive times and finished 52-28-1 in his Texas A&M career.

Though it ended ugly with Sherrill resigning and the Aggies going on probation, Sherrill’s tenure is mostly regarded as a success that paved the way for R.C. Slocum’s remarkable run.

Slocum (1989-2002) coached the Aggies to a 123-47-2 record and four conference championships (Southwest and Big 12). Slocom went 8-4, 9-3 and 10-2 his first three seasons before a 12-1 record in 1992 established him as one of college football’s best.

As hard as it is to believe, there was a time not that long ago when Texas A&M could hire a coach away from Alabama, which is what happened when Dennis Franchione took over for Slocum in 2003. Franchione was up and down, going 4-8, 7-5, 5-6 and 9-4 in his first four years. But fans were left with a sour taste in their mouth that fourth year in 2006 after a loss one-point loss to Oklahoma and a blowout at the hands of California. Franchione lasted only one more season before Mike Sherman took over.

Sherman went 19-19 his first three seasons in College Station despite having Stephen McGee and Ryan Tannehill as quarterbacks. A 7-6 season in 2011 wasn’t enough to save his job.

Sumlin entered the picture and inherited redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel as his quarterback. Together they stormed out of the gate in 2012 and went 11-2 with an incredible victory against Alabama. Sumlin was named SEC Coach of the Year, but he’s followed it up by going 9-4 and 8-4. That first season represents his only winning SEC record to date.

Will this be the season the Aggies get back to double-digit victories, or might Texas A&M continue to trend downward? The key could be quarterback Kyle Allen, whom Sumlin has labeled “the guy” going into his sophomore season, despite a pending competition with five-star freshman Kyler Murray.

Sumlin was fortunate to step into situations at Texas A&M and his previous job at Houston in which quarterbacks Manziel and Case Keenum were there waiting for him. How he’s viewed after this season might depend on how well he’s able to develop a quarterback he recruited himself.

Allen completed 61 percent of his passes for 1,322 yards and 16 touchdowns in nine games last year, good enough for a passer rating of 139.5. That alone is reason for optimism, but Sumlin and the Aggies will put a lot on the shoulders of a relatively-inexperienced signal-caller.

Another eight or nine-win season won’t put Sumlin on a red-hot seat, though seven or fewer could lead to some rumblings in College Station. Sumlin sure could help his case for long-term job security if the Aggies are able to reverse the trend in year No. 4.