Better/worse in 2016: Tennessee passing game

Tennessee carries a six-game winning streak into 2016, the third-longest active streak in America behind Alabama (12) and San Diego State (10). It was a fitting cap to a 2015 season that got away but finished with a flourish.

But 9-4 wasn’t considered good enough a year ago and it certainly won’t be good enough again. The Volunteers have titles on their mind, first in the SEC East, then in the SEC Championship Game and beyond.

For that to happen, the passing game has to be better.

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The Vols have a veteran quarterback in Joshua Dobbs (pictured), who has started 24 games over three years and returns for what should be a memorable senior season. But he’s a better runner than he is a thrower and how much he improves in the passing game will dictate how successful this season becomes.

What the Vols lack – and have for a while – is a vertical passing game. They had just five pass plays go for 40 or more yards last season — only three SEC teams had fewer and eight had at least 10.

It’s been a point of emphasis all offseason, however, and the plan for the fall is to attack, and attack often.

”We’ve got some big-play capabilities out there,” Tennessee receivers coach Zach Azzanni told the Chattanooga Times Free Press in April. “Those guys, they’re as good as you’ll find running (down) the deep ball. We’ve just got to keep throwing it and catching it and working on it. Coach (Butch) Jones has made a point of emphasis this spring to do it.

“If we’re running right past a guy, that ball’s got to be thrown out in front of us and on top of our head. For the quarterback, we’ve got to be able to beat press coverage all the time. I think we have guys that can do that now. We’ve just got to get on the same page.”

The Vols were very average last year, which plays out in the season stats:

Passing yards per game (SEC rank): 198.6 (9th)
TDs: 17 (tied for 7th)
INTs: 5 (tied for fewest)

They need to throw for more yards and touchdowns in 2016, and a repeat of protecting the ball will be nice. Here’s a look at the passing game, piece by piece:

QB PLAY

Dobbs has been around a long time. He started the final five games of his freshman year in 2013 and the final six in 2014 before starting all 13 a year ago. He’s had the misfortunate of starting those first two seasons against Alabama, both losses, and is 14-10 overall as a starter.

Last year was a mixed bag. He’s certainly improving as a passer, but he still has a long way to go. The dual-threat quarterback is more dangerous as a runner than a thrower, gaining 697 yards on the ground and scoring 11 rushing touchdowns.

The worst part of Dobbs’ 9-4 season was how he played in the four losses that derailed what might have been a special season. He was just 13 of 31 passing (41 percent) in the double-overtime loss to Oklahoma, completed only 10 of 17 passes for 83 yards against Florida, was 20 of 36 against Arkansas and 13 of 22 against Alabama. His completion percentage in those four games were essentially the four lowest totals of the season.

The worst part was how the games ended. Against Oklahoma, the Dobbs and the Vols scored the first 17 points in 18 minutes, but then never scored the rest of regulation. They also blew a 13-point fourth quarter lead to Florida, an early 14-point lead to Arkansas and a one-point fourth quarter lead to Alabama (though he did complete two long passes during the Vols’ go-ahead touchdown drive).

That’s not all on Dobbs, of course, because the defense is supposed to go out there and protect leads. But some more offensive production along the way would have helped.

Dobbs’ production was middle of the pack in the SEC, with the exception of his interception total (5), which was tied for best in the league. That was a nice improvement over the previous years – he had 12 interceptions in 11 games in 2013 and 2014.

Receivers/tight ends/running backs

One area that the Vols excel is involving their running backs in the passing game. Alvin Kamara might have been the best third-down back in the country last year. He had 45 catches and starter Jalen Hurd had 30. The pair were targeted more than 20 percent of the time on UT passes.

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Both are back in 2016. Kamara (pictured catching a touchdown pass against Georgia) will still be a big part of the passing game, but Hurd has been working hard all offseason as a pass-catcher as well. Both will make a lot of big plays in the passing game in 2016. And Ethan Wolf can be counted on once again as a dependable tight end.

Receiver is the one position group on this entire team, though, where there is some uncertainty as to how good they can be. Leading receiver Von Pearson is gone, and it’s going to be up to guys like Preston Williams, Josh Malone and Josh Smith to become difference makers.

Play-calling

Mike DeBord has a lot of pressure on him this year, because the goals are high in Knoxville and it’s titles or bust. That means DeBord’s offense must deliver. Debord will benefit from another year of experience with this group intact. He has his QB, running backs, tight end and a veteran offensive line.

Now it needs to happen. DeBord has said often that he’s mellowed as a coach over the years. That might come in handy with the cerebral Dobbs, who is unquestionably the smartest QB in the league. Dialing up the right plays at the right time – especially late in tight games – is going to be big.

One stat that must improve

Last year, the Vols ran the ball 73 percent of the time on first down, highest in the SEC outside of Auburn, which had massive QB issues all year.

You would think the element of surprise would have led to some big passing plays on first down, but that was actually the down that Dobbs performed the worst on. He completed only 59 percent of his passes on first down and three of his five interceptions came on first down, as well. Tennessee averaged only 6.2 yards per pass attempt on first down, 13th in the league ahead of only Vanderbilt.

In 2016, the Vols need to hit some big plays on first down with play-action passes.

Greatest concern

When you have a great running game and a defense with almost everyone back that could be nasty, it’s easy to think you don’t need to throw the ball all over the field to win in Knoxville. That might be true, but there will be times when Dobbs has to beat someone with his arm.

Can he do it? It’s a great unknown, really, and that’s a bit of a shame for a quarterback who has started 24 games over three years already. He had just one 300-yard passing game last season and has just two in his career.

But all that experience should pay off in 2016. If it doesn’t, there will be a lot of disappointed people across the state of Tennessee.

Better or worse in 2016?

The passing game ranked 92nd in the FBS last year and that was nowhere good enough to accomplish the goals they wanted to achieve. Sure, the running game is great and Dobbs is a dynamic runner himself. Dobbs is a smart kid and he accepts coaching well. He looked good the last half of the season and should be primed to have a big senior year.

The UT passing game will be better in 2016. Kamara and Hurd will still be great out of the backfield. It will be up to the receivers to step up their game and make some big plays, especially late in the most critical games on their schedule.

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