Better/worse in 2016: Tennessee running game

September can’t get here soon enough in Knoxville. The Volunteers have their best team in years and talk of titles seems very realistic this year. They are the favorites to win the SEC East and the hope exists that the Vols can also contend for SEC and national titles as well if all goes as planned.

If it does, it will be because of the running game, which should be among the best in the nation. It was very good in 2015, ranking second in the SEC and 20th nationally in yards per game (223.7), and it will be even better in 2016. All the weapons are in place to control games on the ground and contend for those titles that have been so elusive in the last couple of decades.

Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Vols have it all. Two stud running backs in Jalen Hurd (above) and Alvin Kamara (below), five-star recruits who have lived up to the hype in Knoxville, a solid offensive line and a quarterback in Joshua Dobbs who not only can run when he has to but is also smart enough to get the Vols in and out of the right plays.

Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

Here’s a look at the Tennessee running game in 2016:

ROTATION

There may not be a better one-two punch in the country than Hurd and Kamara. Hurd rushed for 1,288 yards and 12 touchdowns last year and is on the verge of becoming Tennessee’s all-time leading rusher. Kamara, who played the backup role well and was dangerous on third downs as well as receiving, rushed for 698 yards and seven scores on just 107 carries, and had 34 catches for another 291 yards and three touchdowns.

The dynamic duo work well together. They are each other’s biggest fans and what they provide is a threat on every play, no matter who’s in the game. Hurd has 2,187 yards in his first two years and is just 891 behind Travis Henry’s 3,078-yard school record. Barring injury, he should finish the season as the best running back in UT history.

https://twitter.com/SDS/status/740185202664853504

Dobbs’ role in the running game can’t be understated either. He’s a better runner than he is a thrower, and he’s dangerous with the ball tucked under his arm. He rushed for 671 yards last year and had 11 rushing touchdowns. (Tennessee rushed for 32 as a team, third in the SEC, tied 21st nationally.)

Dobbs (below) is improving as a passer, but he’s still most dangerous on the move.

Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Because Hurd and Kamara have been so good, there are some concerns with depth after them, but others will start to emerge over time. That is, quite frankly, a 2017 concern, not this year.

CHASING 1,000

Last season, Hurd gave Tennessee its sixth 1,000-yard rusher in the past decade

Hurd will still be the go-to guy and there’s no reason to think he won’t have his 1,000 yards and career rushing record before mid-November. He could make a run at Travis Stephens’ single-season school record of 1,464, set in 2001.

Hurd has worked hard all offseason on his speed and being able to break plays against the second wave of defenders. Injuries might be the only thing that derails his chase for 1,000.

You can’t rule out Kamara or even Dobbs threatening 1,000, either. Dobbs has been known to break long runs – he went for 62 ice last year against Florida, and his yards can add up quickly, especially if there are some extra games on the schedule, like a conference title game or a playoff game or two.

Kamara could do it too if Hurd misses any time. He would be a starting running back at 90 percent of FBS schools and certainly has 1,000-yard skills. He won’t get enough carries if Hurd stays healthy all year, but if he has to be the featured back for a stretch, he’ll post some numbers.

PLAY-CALLING

The pressure is on offensive coordinator Mike DeBord this year to make this the special season that everyone wants in Knoxville. He has all the pieces at every position and the Vols in is place to do some damage.

DeBord knows he’s got a great running game and he isn’t afraid to use it, especially at critical times. It’s worked, as evidenced by last year’s 32 rushing touchdowns. More of the same can be expected in 2016.

Varying the play-calling can only help. Tennessee ran on first down 316 times last season, most in the conference. And it largely worked; the Vols averaged 5.04 yards on those carries and ran for 11 touchdowns.

That threat alone should create more big play opportunities for Dobbs in the passing game. Tennessee threw its fewest passes for the fewest yards on first down last season.

DeBord is in his second year at Tennessee and he has a great working relationship with Dobbs, a veteran QB primed to have a big senior season. Their goal is to be more productive in critical moments of games, and much more of that is expected in 2016, especially with so much experience returning.

GREATEST CONCERN

The Volunteers finished 9-4 last year and most UT fans can recite every last play of the four losses much better than they can the nine wins. The Vols had leads in all four losses – and most leads were big and they were late. It could have been a magical season if the Vols offense could have produced even a little bit late in games. That has to change in 2016.

Against Oklahoma, the Vols gained 4 total yards in their final 28 offensive plays of regulation after taking a 17-3 lead. That’s a sad case of not finishing the deal. Sadly, that happened far too often. That’s 1.71 inches per play.

Tennessee led Florida 27-14 with 10 minutes to go and lost. The offensive production down the stretch? A grand total of 31 yards on eight plays over two possessions – and no points. Florida came back to win 28-27 when Aaron Medley missed a 55-yarder on the final play. Tennessee’s offense took over at its 32-yard line with 1:26 left but couldn’t get Medley any closer.

Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

In the 24-20 loss to Arkansas a week later, the Vols squandered a 14-point lead. After falling behind 24-20, they had three possessions but never scored, gaining only 41 yards on 17 plays.

The Alabama loss might have hurt the worst. The Vols scored late to take the lead but then gave it right back. A final drive ended with a sack and then a lost fumble. Four plays, for minus-12 yards.

So as good as Tennessee looks to be in 2016, this is the area that everyone still has to be worried about. Can they run the ball and make big plays down the stretch of tight games? It remains to be seen.

Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

ONE STAT THAT MUST IMPROVE

We’ve just covered the numbers very well. Here they are, all added up. This is how bad the Vols were statistically in trying to close out games: In four losses, at critical times, they ran 57 plays plays and gained a grand total of 64 yards, barely over a yard per carry. That simply can’t happen again.

BETTER OR WORSE IN 2016

The Vols were very good in 2015, but they’ll still be better in 2016. Hurd and Kamara are very dangerous and have worked to get even better.

Hurd wants to break longer runs and be a better pass catcher. Kamara wants a bigger role whenever he can have it. Dobbs is the smartest quarterback in America.

September, you just can’t get here soon enough.