Like every team teetering on the brink of a noteworthy season, Tennessee will need a few breaks to maintain its widely-accepted status as an SEC contender this fall.

A righteous man, in the form of head coach Butch Jones, would tell you the Vols can manufacture their own luck by sticking to the plan, one that starts with considerable talent at the skill positions for the first time in his tenure and taking a one game at a time approach in college football’s most competitive league.

In short, control the controllables and the rest will take care of itself.

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Quarterback Josh Dobbs doesn’t have to be Superman for Tennessee to creep into the Top 15, but scheduling wise, the Vols’ margin for error is slim and a hot start is essential to playing meaningful games in November.

Breaking down the Vols’ chances in the Eastern Division, let’s take a look at four variables that coincide with Tennessee winning 10 games (or more) for the first time since 2007 this fall.

Tennessee’s ‘SEC contender’ variables

  • Must get to Halloween (at Kentucky) with one league loss or fewer
  • Must snap 10-game losing streak against Florida (Sept. 26)
  • Must split pivotal rivalry games vs. Georgia and Alabama
  • Must finish 4-0 in November

If the Vols meet the criteria mentioned above, Tennessee will be nationally-ranked with a possible shot at a College Football Playoff berth heading into the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 5.

It’s strange we’re even mentioning ‘national championship’ and ‘Vols Football’ in the same sentence considering how far one of the nation’s most storied programs has fallen over the last decade.

Since Derek Dooley kicked off a string of four consecutive losing seasons that ended in January with a win over Iowa in the TaxSlayer Bowl, the Vols’ winning percentage against SEC competition is an anemic 0.218 over that span. Capturing the East this season with a 7-1 record (projecting what it would take to clinch the division) means Tennessee would match the same number of league wins it had over the previous four years combined.

Getting back to the 1990s and early 2000s ‘glory days’ starts with avoiding embarrassment on the national stage in the form of a pivotal Week 2 matchup against Oklahoma this season. During Tennessee’s periods of dominance — and overall relevance — beginning in the mid 1960s, the Vols owned non-SEC teams. From 1971-99, Tennessee sported a 15-7 record in bowl games against out-of-conference competition including a national championship over Bobby Bowden’s Florida State Seminoles.

Before last season’s win over Iowa, the Vols had lost seven of their last eight games against Power 5 competition outside the SEC including two memorable blowouts to Oregon.

Next on the agenda is ending a 10-year slide to Florida, tied for the longest such streak in the rivalry’s 44-game history. The disappointing stretch appeared to be nearing its end last fall in Knoxville before a hapless Gators offense erased a nine-point deficit in the fourth quarter.

Jones labeled the loss his team’s ‘turning point’ during a winning season.

Looking at the Vols’ most treacherous games this season, a road trip to Tuscaloosa and home game against Georgia rises to the top. Losses to both would all but end division championship hopes and squanders any real opportunity at bringing national media back into Tennessee’s corner.

And lastly, if the Vols intend on backing up their SEC darkhorse claims, winning out in November has to happen. Tennessee should be favored in every contest (unless Mizzou’s in line to win the East for a third straight year) and is considerably more talented than what they’ll face out of South Carolina, North Texas, the Tigers and Vanderbilt.

Since Jones and his staff have already handled the most difficult aspect of sustaining success in the SEC — building a viable roster comparable to the rest of college football’s elites through recruiting — the pieces are in place for Tennessee to win the East sooner rather than later.

Free of excuses, now it comes down to execution.