It’s interesting how perceptions and expectations can change once a program gets a taste of sustained success.

Former Vanderbilt coach Bobby Johnson, who held the Commodores head coaching job for eight seasons (2002-09), won just two games in a season four times, including a total of six wins in his first three seasons on the job.

He had one winning season (7-6 in 2008), and is a generally a beloved figure to the Vanderbilt fan base, in spite of his curiously-timed exit in the summer of 2010.

Derek Mason went 3-9 in his first season on the job in 2014, better results than half of the seasons during Johnson’s tenure, and there’s a portion of the fan base that’s ready to move on to the next coach.

The difference? Expectations.

After James Franklin’s three-year run at Vanderbilt (2011-13), which included three bowl appearances and two nine-win seasons, a 3-9 record for Mason just isn’t going to cut it for Vanderbilt fans any longer.

And good for them for taking that stand.

But how do we calibrate the expectations for Mason’s second season? What is a realistic goal for a team that was a couple of close calls against UMass and Charleston Southern from a 1-11 season in 2014?

Let’s break down the Commodores’ 2015 schedule to see if we can set the bar for Mason appropriately:

FAVORABLE MATCHUPS

Sorry, Commodores fans. While the out-of-conference schedule sets up for an entertaining season, it doesn’t do much for Vanderbilt in terms of “surefire” wins. The Week 3 meeting with Austin Peay is one that can be counted as a victory. The Governors have been one of the worst FCS schools during the last few seasons, so there should not be much in the way of competition here. Put at least one in the win column for Mason in season No. 2.

  • vs. Austin Peay, Sept. 19

BIGGEST GAMES

There are four games on this season’s schedule that are likely to make or break the Derek Mason tenure at Vanderbilt. Three of them happen to be out-of-conference matchups.

Want to know one of the secrets James Frankin’s success? He won the games he was supposed to win. Franklin’s Commodores went 11-1 in out-of-conference games from 2011-13.

Mason himself was 3-1 against last season’s non-conference slate, but things get a little tougher in 2015. Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee are two solid Conference USA programs within an hour drive of Vanderbilt, both of which are hungry for a taste of local SEC blood. The Commodores are just a 2 1/2 point favorite for the season opener against the Hilltoppers, and have lost their last three meetings with the Blue Raiders. A loss to either of these teams would be a huge blow to the Mason regime.

An oddly-placed trip to Houston at the end of October is another non-conference game that is no walk in the park. A November meeting with Kentucky at Vanderbilt Stadium may offer Mason his best chance at a SEC victory after going 0-8 last season. He can’t afford to go 0-8 again.

  • vs. Western Kentucky, Sept. 5
  • at Middle Tennessee, Oct. 3
  • at Houston, Oct. 31
  • vs. Kentucky, Nov. 14

ROUGH PATCH

There are no gimmes on the November portion of the Vanderbilt schedule. The Commodores are likely to be underdogs through the entire month, and the demeanor of the team may be fragile depending on how the team performs in its crucial out-of-conference portion of the schedule.

While Vanderbilt won in its last trip to The Swamp and Florida appears to be heading for a bit of a rebuilding season, that is still a tough game. The next week, Kentucky likely will be just as hungry for the conference win as Vanderbilt. Texas A&M provides a nightmare matchup for a team that had trouble scoring last season. Finishing the season at Tennessee is never an easy assignment, even if it is one the Commodores are looking forward to after winning two of the last three meetings against the hated rival.

  •  at Florida, Nov. 7
  • vs. Kentucky, Nov. 14
  • vs. Texas A&M, Nov. 21
  • at Tennessee, Nov. 28

TOUGHEST TILT

Vanderbilt’s toughest tilt is also its biggest opportunity to make a splash early in the 2015 season. The Commodores draw Georgia in a Week 2 matchup that will be nationally televised on CBS. While the Commodores suffered an embarrassing 44-17 loss in Athens last season, they were 31-27 winners against the Bulldogs in the last meeting at Vanderbilt Stadium in 2013. Mason could change the perception of his program almost instantaneously if he is able to come away with an upset against the prohibitive favorites to win the SEC East on Sept. 12.

SEASON-DEFINING STRETCH

  • Oct. 3 – Oct. 31

Assuming the Commodores come away with a win in their season opener against Western Kentucky, they’re very likely to exit a September slate that includes games against Georgia, Austin Peay and Ole Miss with a 2-2 record. How they handle the next four weeks is likely to determine the fate of their season, and quite possibility their head coach.

The game at Middle Tennessee on Oct. 3 is crucial. Vanderbilt has to have it. The Commodores follow that game with a bye week before finishing out the month at South Carolina, home against Missouri and at Houston. If Vanderbilt is able to win both out-of-conference games and enter the season’s final month at 4-4, all should be well on West End. If they are able to knock off South Carolina or Missouri along the way, they could carry that momentum into November looking for just one win to be bowl eligible.