At a Final Four rich with storylines, there’s some justice to the notion that Alabama is the forgotten team.

One national analyst this week went so far as to suggest that “Alabama is by far the least compelling story at the Final Four.”

If you aren’t wearing oven mitts, you might get burned by that hot take.

Yes, there’s UConn’s chase of immortality in its quest to become the first back-to-back national champion since Florida in 2006-2007 and just the third team to repeat in the post-integration, modern era of college basketball, which began in 1973.

There’s Cinderella, too, thanks to DJ Burns and NC State winning 9 consecutive elimination games starting with their stunning 5 wins in 5 days run through the ACC Tournament last month.

Yes, Purdue and 2-time Wooden Award winner Zach Edey are in the Final Four after a stunning loss to 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the opening round a season ago.

But if Purdue gets to play the “Redeem Team” card, doesn’t Alabama? After all, didn’t Alabama and Nate Oats claim the No. 1 overall seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament, only to play timidly in a Sweet 16 loss to a more physical, tougher San Diego State? Why should Purdue get to monopolize the redemption story arc?

Alabama also lost 70% of its scoring production from a season ago, a lottery pick, and all 3 of its assistant coaches. But I guess it’s somehow not compelling that Nate Oats navigated all that turnover and guided Alabama to the program’s first Final Four anyway?

Billy Donovan, who knows a thing or two about roaring hoops success at a “football” school, used to laugh when his Florida teams were “the least compelling story” at a Final Four. That was the case in 2006, when the Gators joined blue-blood UCLA, LSU and lovable big man Glen “Big Baby” Davis, along with Cinderella George Mason in the Final Four.

“We were a team that I wouldn’t say no one wanted to win, but we knew all week the focus would be on George Mason as the Cinderella or UCLA as the storied program or how likable LSU was,” Donovan recalled to SDS last year. “The key is understanding that you don’t need any of that acclaim or attention. You have earned the right to your moment.”

Compelling story, redemption story, least compelling story — Alabama won’t care. They’ve earned their moment.

The Crimson Tide are 11.5-point underdogs to UConn, via DraftKings Sportsbook, ahead of Saturday night’s national semifinal.

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In fact, UConn’s installation as a massive favorite is beyond fair.

The Huskies, with 35 wins and the nation’s most efficient offense and 4th-ranked defense, per KenPom, haven’t been challenged in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies are destroying opponents, flexing their muscles with runs of 23-8 and 20-6 in their Sweet 16 win over San Diego State and the soul-crushing, mind-boggling 30-0 run over Illinois in the Elite 8. Including last year’s run, they have won 10 consecutive NCAA Tournament games by at least 13 points.

The Huskies have looked like the fictional half-man, half-cyborg Soviet fighter Ivan Drago in Rocky IV, dominating opponents so thoroughly that good teams appear feckless in their wake. UConn deserves every bit of the praise they are receiving, and should they cut down the nets next Monday night as back-to-back national champions, the Huskies will go down as one of the greatest teams to ever play the sport.

Of course, Ivan Drago lost, and moving beyond fiction, so have seemingly invincible teams at the Final Four. UNLV, unbeaten and riding a 2-season, 45-game winning streak, won its first 4 games by an average of 18 points in the 1991 NCAA Tournament before being felled by Duke — the team it embarrassed by 30 in the 1990 title game. Kentucky was 38-0 and manhandled its first 3 opponents in the 2015 NCAA Tournament by an average of 25 points. After besting a great Notre Dame team in the Elite 8, the Wildcats fell to Wisconsin’s suffocating defense and controlled tempo in the Final Four. And perhaps most famously, Phi Slama Jama Houston, with 2 future Hall of Famers in Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon, lost as double-digit favorites to Jim Valvano’s NC State in the 1983 title game.

In other words, while UConn is an overwhelming favorite to win not just Saturday but Monday night, the romance of the NCAA Tournament, the why that keeps America coming back for more year after year, is that a team like UConn might not win.

Here are 3 keys to UConn-Alabama, along with a prediction.

1. Want to beat UConn? You better stop Cam Spencer

Spencer is the dude who makes UConn almost unbeatable.

Recruited as a Jordan Hawkins replacement who runs around screens and buries 3-pointers off the catch, Spencer has given the Huskies much more than just a perimeter sniper. Yes, Spencer shoots 3s at a 44% clip and UConn runs insanely good offense to get him open.

But Spencer is a complete player. He’s a brilliant passer with the highest IQ in college basketball. His 4.2-1 assist to turnover ratio is the best among all players at the Final Four. Spencer also can drive, score, and get to the free throw line, and his 137.1 offensive rating leads the top-ranked offense in America.

Spencer also guards with fire and passion, keeping drivers in front of him and using his 6-4 frame to disrupt the passing lanes and generate 1.5 steals a game.

A common thread in all 3 UConn losses? Quiet to poor performances from Spencer.

The UConn guard scored 6, 5 and 6 in UConn’s 3 defeats, and battled foul trouble in 2 of those contests. If you want to beat UConn, you have to limit the Loyola-Maryland and Rutgers transfer first.

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2. Can Alabama make UConn run — and foul — by going small and creating mismatches with its speed?

“If Latrell Wrightsell (concussion protocol) plays, Alabama won’t just have the best 1-2 punch at guard UConn has seen this season, it will have the deepest backcourt the Huskies have played, too,” an SEC head coach told SDS this week. “Even if Wrightsell doesn’t play, they have 3 terrific guards and can use Davin Cosby to play smaller, I would think. That kind of speed is something that Illinois doesn’t have, for example.”

This analysis is correct, despite the fact that after we wrote our column on Alabama’s backcourt giving the Crimson Tide a chance on Monday, smart UConn fans hopped onto Twitter to rightly note that UConn faced a team in the Elite 8 that, much like Alabama, featured an electric All-American at guard in Terrence Shannon Jr., and well, went on a 30-0 run and ran the Illini out of the gym.

If the Crimson Tide go smaller, they could create mismatches with their speed. Illinois tried to pull UConn star Donovan Clingan away from the rim with Coleman Hawkins, but the Huskies refused, instead putting Cam Spencer on Hawkins. Alabama has a deeper backcourt than the Illini, and while they could shift Spencer on say, Rylan Griffen, Clingan might be occupied away from the rim regardless by Grant Nelson, the Crimson Tide 5 man who can make the Tide a truly modern 5-out offense, especially if he can repeat his UNC game performance.

Of course, even if the Crimson Tide force some mismatches, they’ll still need their stars to win 1-on-1 battles. Given the way UConn freshman Stephon Castle locked down All-B1G guards Boo Buie and Shannon Jr., that may be more difficult than it sounds, even with Mark Sears. Then again, all season this writer kept telling folks that Sears should be neck-and-neck with Dalton Knecht for SEC Player of the Year, and that come March, he would be just as important to his team. Like a turtle on a log, the sun hits me just right every once in a while. Sears has already shown his value in guiding Alabama to the program’s first Final Four. If he’s great again Saturday, the Crimson Tide have a chance to win.

3. UConn’s frontcourt should eat — which means Alabama better hit 11 to 15 3-pointers to keep up

“They are going to get beat up inside, so you have to do the math, which I’m sure Nate Oats appreciates. I would tell Oats to have his guys shoot 45 3-pointers, seriously,” a national title winning coach told SDS this week. “If they make 11, they have a chance. But they might need 15 to win.”

Alabama can shoot the 3 at a terrific rate. They have made 11 3-pointers in 3 of their 4 NCAA Tournament wins and buried 16 in their Elite 8 win over Clemson. To beat UConn, Alabama needs a high possession game where they make an avalanche of 3-pointers. The Tide rank 9th nationally in adjusted tempo, and they’ll need to push it against a UConn team content to play slower (315th in tempo) and let their superior talent and defense win the day in a lower possession game.

Of course, in a lower possession game, the Crimson Tide have to create variance by shooting well, especially because UConn will make life hard inside. With Clingan, Alex Karaban and Samson Johnson, UConn has waves of bigs who will make life tough on the Crimson Tide in the painted area. Alabama’s guards won’t get stoned all night inside, but UConn will affect shots at the rim even if they don’t block a ton of shots on Saturday night.

“It isn’t just defense,” another SEC coach told me. “UConn is also likely to attack Alabama inside offensively, trying to get the Crimson Tide in foul trouble, especially Nelson and Pringle, the primary interior big guys they have. Florida did that and blew them out twice. Dan Hurley will have seen that film. But in both the Florida losses, they didn’t hit 3s.”

All of this points to the obvious conclusion: Alabama better make 3-pointers. If they do that, they’ll have a chance — fast tempo or no fast tempo.

Prediction: UConn 81, Alabama 77

The Crimson Tide’s electric backcourt will push UConn for the first time in 11 NCAA Tournament games. In the end, though, the Huskies have a backcourt that is ready for the fight and a huge edge in the frontcourt with Clingan, Johnson and Karaban.

Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada will keep things in the balance until the final media timeout, but it will be UConn’s guards, namely Tristan Newton and Spencer, who make one more play to cement a classic victory and advance to the national championship game on Monday night.