Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Creighton in the Sweet 16
Well, the Fearless Prediction was all set to stay on vacation until football season. But the NCAA Tournament gave us the opportunity to get back in the game well in advance of September.
Last week we told you that Tennessee would knock off Saint Peter’s and then defeat Texas in the 2nd round. Folks, that is obviously something no one but the Fearless Prediction could have seen coming.
Now, the Fearless Prediction gets the chance to look into the future and pick the Tennessee/Creighton winner in the Sweet 16. FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Vols as a 2.5-point favorite.
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The 2nd-seeded Vols beat Texas 62-58 in a physical, grind it out matchup in the Round of 32. Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht, the SEC Player of the Year, led all scorers with 18 points but only shot 5-of-18 from the field. Tennessee made a woeful 3-of-25 3-point attempts in that game, shooting 33.8% from the field overall. But the Vols were clutch from the line, converting of 15-of-18 attempts.
They also collected 14 offensive rebounds and forced 17 turnovers. Defense and board play can carry teams on off nights, and that hard work pushed Tennessee into the Sweet 16 for the second straight season.
As for 3rd-seed Creighton, the Bluejays got an even bigger scare in the 2nd-round from Oregon. Creighton trailed in the final seconds of regulation but finally put the Ducks away in double OT.
This is a Creighton team that is used to winning in March. It’s their 3rd trip to the Sweet 16 in the past 4 years. Last year they missed out on the Final Four by a basket in their Elite Eight loss to San Diego State.
The Bluejays have a 4 excellent players who have started all 34 games this season. Senior shooting guard Baylor Scheierman is their best player, averaging 18,3 points per game and 9.1 rebounds per game, tops on the team in both categories. Junior point guard Trey Alexander puts up 17.7 points per game and leads the team with 4.7 assists per contest.
Senior center Ryan Kalkbrenner is 7-1 and a serious problem down low. He scores 17.1 points per game and is one of the top shot-blockers in the country with 105 this season, good enough for 2nd nationally. Senior guard Steven Ashworth rounds out Creighton’s fantastic 4 with 11 points per game and 4.2 assists per game.
This is an experienced group, but not especially deep. Only 6 players average at least 21 minutes per game, and no one else averages more than 9 minutes a game. The Bluejays certainly appreciate the extra day of rest following that double OT affair in round 2.
Like Creighton, Tennessee relies on its veterans. Junior forward Jonas Aidoo, and 5th-year senior guards Knecht, Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James started all 34 games this season. Junior guard Zakai Zeigler started 28 games, after he was eased back into the lineup at the start of the season following a torn ACL. The Vols are a little deeper, with guards Jordan Gainey, Jahmai Mashack and forward Tobe Awaka each playing at least 12 minutes a game.
Tennessee likely won’t be able to bully the Bluejays inside as they were able to do against Texas. Awaka might be called upon to play a big role in this game. In only 11 minutes against the Longhorns, Awaka had 10 points and 5 rebounds, with 4 of those boards on the offensive glass.
There’s a common opponent in Alabama, the only other SEC team still alive in the NCAA Tournament. Tennessee beat the Tide in both meetings this season, and the Bluejays won their matchup against Alabama in Omaha.
Tennessee sportsbooks have established the Vols as a slight favorite, expecting perhaps the closest game of the Sweet 16. The numbers back up that prognostication. Tennessee allows 67 points per game (46th in nation) while scoring 79.1 points per game (50th). Creighton allows 69.5 points per game (97th) while scoring 80.6 points per game. On paper, Tennessee is a bit better on defense, with Creighton having a small edge on offense.
Both Tennessee and Creighton are desperate to advance to the Final Four — a place neither program has been.
These teams could play 10 times and probably split those meetings. But the beauty (and horror) of this tournament is that every game is a one shot deal.
Before the tournament, when looking down the line the Fearless Prediction expected to see this matchup. We thought the potential result would go to Creighton … and we aren’t changing our minds.
Fearless Prediction time …
Creighton 68, Tennessee 65
The author’s guess is as good as anyone. UT seems to be finding themselves (sort of) and have been able to win despite not bringing their “A” game. They won’t be able to do that going forward from here on out. Should be a great, tight game.
Yeah whoever wins won’t be a surprise. That blowout win Creighton got vs UConn worries me. I totally agree the Vols A+ game will be needed from here on out.
Crossed fingers and toes.
Offensively, the Vols either start smoking’ hot, or ice cold, there doesn’t seem to be any in between. Vescovi needs to shoot more to take some of the pressure off DK. Defensively, the Vols don’t have a rim protector, so they’re vulnerable to guards driving the lane on them for layups. Additionally, they’re not a good free throw shooting team. They’ll need to address both or they won’t be advancing any farther.
Go Vols. Go CATS!!!
A few things bother me about CU. First, 80% of their scoring comes from only 4 of their starting players. Second, they are so not deep off the bench, like, at all. Third, in the month of February, they went 5-3 with losses to unranked teams. PU, SJU and Butler. BU had 99 points in that win. CU loses offensive rebounds, rebounds in general and can lose a game even when they hit 15 3 pointers in a game and it was to one of the three teams above. They are not Texas inside the paint. If you aren’t deep off the bench, when those 4 scorers tire later in the game or have to sit, it’s a bad time to be playing the number 3 defense in the country. This isn’t the same CU team as last year, nor is TN, for the good. If TN does what it does, TN by ten. DK has a field day inside the paint.
Realistic prediction: Vols 72 Blue Jays 68
Fearless prediction: Vols 104 Blue Jays 87
I made it to half. Close game. Best of luck to the Vols in the second half.
Well, I was planning on going to bed. Instead I just watched Tennessee reel off 18 in a row. Amazing!!!