National Signing Day is D-E-A-D dead, no matter what all the recruiting sites try to tell you
You read that headline correctly. National Signing Day is dead. All the drama. All the intrigue. All the excitement. Dead, dead, dead.
Dreams will indeed come true Wednesday, when college football players from sea to shining sea end their recruitment and finally put pen to paper on a Letter of Intent. It marks the end of one process and yet the beginning of another.
According to the composite rankings at 247Sports, half of the Top 10 classes in America currently belong to the SEC: No. 1 Alabama, No. 3 Georgia, No. 6 LSU, No. 9 Texas A&M and No. 10 Auburn. Tennessee (14), Florida (20), South Carolina (23), Mississippi State (27), Kentucky (28) and Arkansas (30) are represented in the Top 30, too.
ESPN will broadcast hours upon hours of coverage throughout the day, but expect very little breaking news and a whole lot of talking heads.
“There are a handful of elite players that are still uncommitted,” Brandon Huffman told Saturday Down South. Huffman is the national director of recruiting for Scout. “But that number is dwindling, so there is less intrigue this year on signing day and even in the weeks leading up to it than I can ever remember. Only six of the top 30 prospects on Scout are uncommitted, and two of them are expected to announced before signing day.”
Simply speaking, National Signing Day isn’t the spectacle it used to be. Coaches will actually be able to talk about their new players, which they’re prohibited from doing prior to getting those LOIs, but that’s about it.
“On the local beats, the head coach is available on signing day,” said Steve Wiltfong, who is the director of recruiting for 247Sports. “So it’s an opportunity for beat writers to get out and talk to the head coach about their recruiting classes. It’s the first time, in a lot of those places, they also make the assistant coaches available. It’s very newsworthy to give the college coaching staffs’ take on what they’re bringing in, addressing their needs in that regard and then also just getting anecdotal and just cool stories from their perspective on the process from their own eyes.”
NSD used to be when coaches — and fans, of course — would finally get to see a list of the fresh faces they could expect to see in uniform the following season. No matter the names, from five-star quarterbacks to two-star long snappers, everybody is optimistic that they just secured the class that’ll take their program to the next level.
Except, for the most part, we already know where the elite recruits are going. Only one of the Top 24 prospects in America remains uncommitted.
Sure, sparks will fly when Bellaire (Texas) Episcopal High School defensive tackle Marvin Wilson, the nation’s No. 6 recruit, picks a hat up off the podium. At this point, it looks like a battle between LSU and Florida State.
But even for a talent like Wilson, is his John Hancock really going to tip the scales? The Tigers already have a loaded class, as do the Seminoles. If Wilson comes aboard, one of those two — each will be preseason Top 10 again, guaranteed — simply becomes all the more loaded. It’s not like Wilson is going to shock the world and pick USF.
recruiting in the digital age
“The days of big signing-day announcements are gone,” Huffman said, “replaced with Bleacher Report videos throughout the year, Twitter announcements and more announcements at the All-American games. If there is anything to watch, it’s if there are any last-minute flips because that is really the only place intrigue lies.”
Social media has changed the commitment game entirely. The millennial generation has control over its own message more than ever.
Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports
“There’s still plenty of hard news,” Wiltfong said. “There’s several high-profile guys that still announce on signing day, so I think that attracts a lot of attention. I think the build-up to signing day is also exciting with kids committing these last three weekends at a high rate. And then, obviously, during the week and leading up to signing day, there’s a lot of action on the trail with commitments, late offers, flips and then, obviously, the final three important official visit weekends.”
Keep in mind that Wiltfong works for a company that charges subscribers a monthly fee to get info they supposedly can’t get elsewhere, almost all of which revolves around recruiting. I used to work for Scout, so I’m sympathetic to his cause.
But the timeline of the recruiting process has changed dramatically. Kids used to see their first offers as juniors and seniors in high school. Now they’re getting them as freshmen and sophomores. Many coaches pressure them to commit on the spot — some will even pull the offer if they don’t — in order to help cement their classes.
As a result, we know where most of these players are going way in advance. There are fewer surprises once the moment of truth arrives.
“Coaches want commitments earlier and earlier, which is why they’re offering earlier and earlier,” Huffman said. “With the dead period extended on each end, there is less time on the road for the coaches in December and January, so they want less maintenance of their commitments and more time to focus on who hasn’t committed or who is still within reach.”
There are also more recruiting sites than ever before. In addition to Scout and 247Sports, Rivals and ESPN attract huge traffic, too. It’s not unusual for players to put “no more interviews” on Twitter because they’re being bombarded with calls.
“I think that there’s still plenty of excitement around signing day, and I haven’t noticed a drop-off in it,” Wiltfong said. “I just think, if anything, the coverage is more saturated.”
less emphasis on closing
Back when former Florida State coach Bobby Bowden was king of the living room in the ’80s and 90s, he was notorious for being a late closer on National Signing Day. His class would be half empty the night before — then all of a sudden he’d steal a handful of blue-chippers from under everyone’s noses. It happened almost annually.
These days, by the time National Signing Day arrives, most of the work has been done. If anything, it’s time to exhale.
Don’t look for a lot of movement in the Top 10 once all the signatures have been tallied. It would take a miracle for Alabama to be knocked out of the top spot. This will assuredly be coach Nick Saban’s seventh straight No. 1 finish.
“Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Dabo Swinney, Chris Petersen, all playoff coaches this year, all have had the chunk of their class done for some time,” Huffman said. “I don’t think coaches can even gamble on selling out for signing day because they need those commitments earlier. That’s why they push for earlier enrollment.”
While there are still some 4- and 5-stars out there aside from the aforementioned Wilson, only eight of the Top 50 and 17 of the Top 100 are yet to pick a school. One coach would have to land several of them to truly make a jump in the final rankings.
“Alabama’s probably going to finish 1, but Georgia’s still got an outside shot to finish 1 in our rankings,” Wiltfong said. “There’s a big battle for who’s finishing in the Top 5 with Michigan, Florida State, Oklahoma, LSU and USC. USC wasn’t even in the Top 10 until (last) week. They could shoot into the Top 5. I still think there’s some excitement in that regard as well.”
Credit: Richard Dole-USA TODAY Sports
recruit younger, sign earlier
There has been a lot of momentum lately for the implementation of an early signing period — one could be approved in April by the NCAA Division I Council. Just because players are committed to other programs, that doesn’t stop them from being recruited elsewhere, of course. But if their minds are made up, why wait until February?
If prospects will soon be able to fire up the fax machine in mid-December or so, then the magic of National Signing Day takes another hit.
“I think it’s more than just an early signing period,” Huffman said. “It really correlates with the increase in early enrollments. But also with social media, earlier unofficial visits and the like, kids are seeing schools earlier in their high school careers instead of seeing a school for the first time on an official visits.”
Every Power 5 program hosts multiple camps these days. It’s standard operating procedure for high school freshmen to make their way to several of them over the course of a summer and get their first glance at what life will be like in college.
“I think that there’s still plenty to be excited about out there right now,” Wiltfong said. “But, yeah, recruiting, the dynamic itself, certainly has changed. When back in the ’90s, and probably even early-2000s, kids didn’t even get recruited until their senior year. Now we’ve known these kids for three years, but that still doesn’t take away the twists and the turns and the build-up with all these schools still courting high-profile guys.”
Prospects used to step foot on campus for the first time as high school seniors on their official visits. That’s no longer the case.
Additionally, it’s not unusual for Florida kids to camp in faraway lands like California, and vice versa. That was unheard of before. Gone are the days when most elite Sunshine State recruits only chose between Florida, Florida State and Miami.
“Camps, combines and 7-on-7 tournaments get them to further outposts more frequently, so they don’t need the official visit anymore,” Huffman said. “They see the same things, if not even more, on the unofficials. And now kids are announcing with more frequency at national showcases or on Twitter, so their process is ending sooner than it used to.”
To be fair, there are still some questions to be answered — particularly at top-shelf programs with new coaches. Tom Herman and Willie Taggart are in overdrive hauling in their primary classes at Texas and Oregon, respectively. Herman worked wonders at Houston, as did Taggart at USF. They’re no longer playing the role of underdog, though.
“Coaching changes changed the board, too,” Wiltfong said. “Texas got a couple big names on the board, but what do they finish with? Oregon and Coach Taggart. I still think that there’s plenty of storylines out there.”
no time to worry about prom
Another game-changer on the recruiting front is the proliferation of early enrollees. A relatively new phenomenon in college football, so many kids these days are graduating high school early in order to get to campus ASAP.
Redshirting for a year used to be the norm. Now prospects simply don’t have the patience anymore. They want to play — and play right away. Nothing gives them a better chance of doing so than going through spring practice before their freshman season even begins. Building their bodies quicker in the weight room is an added advantage, too.
There’s very little mystery about Alabama’s class for 2017. Half of their 24 commitments for this cycle are already in Tuscaloosa.
Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
“This is where you’re seeing more players moving,” Huffman said. “Three of the top five players in the country are already enrolled as early-entry guys, and the other two are committed to Stanford, which doesn’t allow early enrollees. But they likely would if they could.”
All five of the Crimson Tide’s 5-star commitments enrolled early, so there’s no chance of them flipping elsewhere on National Signing Day. As far as Saban is concerned, he’s already reeled in his biggest catches.
“It used to just be quarterbacks,” Huffman said. “Now it’s every position. Guys want to play as true freshmen and put themselves in the best position to be three-and-out (to the NFL), so they enroll early and get through spring ball and are playing as true freshmen. I think you’ll see more of this in the future, too, as guys want to get into a college weight program sooner rather than later.”
let’s get back to coaching
Back in Bowden’s time, National Signing Day was when he worked his hardest. He managed to secure so many future stars — his Southern drawl and Christian values made him a wizard with parents — at the finish line. Players didn’t commit so early back then. Recruiting classes were oftentimes up for grabs until those signatures were dry.
But watch the TV coverage Wednesday. For the most part, coaches will be sitting in their offices quite relaxed. They’ve already clocked out.
“I think it’s a relief because of all the bull$#!+ they had to sit through and all the @$$-kissing and all the hand-holding,” Wiltfong said. “Now it’s, ‘All right, we can go back to being football coaches and what we do best.'”
It takes longer to recruit players that it did before. Paradoxically, they also transfer more often and leave earlier for the pros. Couple all this with an elongated and shifting recruiting calendar, and the thrill of NSD is now DOA.
“I think National Signing Day is part excitement, part relief that it’s over,” Wiltfong said. “You know who you got, and now it’s time to start preparing for spring ball and compete for a championship for the high-profile guys.”
In the SEC, the storylines have held steady for a while now. Alabama is an untouchable juggernaut on the recruiting trail. LSU will come close — but not quite. Kentucky and Mississippi State are doing a little better than expected. Florida and Ole Miss? A bit worse. None of them will rise or fall too drastically come Wednesday.
Huffman and Wiltfong, of course, will never admit that National Signing Day is dead. As a matter of fact, it’s their job to convince you otherwise.
Huffman is counting on recruiting hounds coast to coast to hit refresh at Scout every five minutes from the comfort of their cubicles. Wiltfong’s paycheck is generated at least partially by subscribers burning up the 247Sports message boards.
The irony is that National Signing Day now arrives not with a bang but a whimper because Huffman and Wiltfong — as well as their colleagues at Rivals and ESPN — do such a terrific job the other 364 days of the year. There’s almost nothing left to tell us. We know more about these recruits than ever before, including where most of them are headed.
National Signing Day is no less important. Recruiting is the lifeblood of any program. But knowing the final score in advance spoils the fun.
John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.
