The SEC lost three coaches in 2015, and they were all legends who didn’t quite win enough at the end. It’s sad to see Steve Spurrier (South Carolina), Mark Richt (Georgia) and Gary Pinkel head out the door, especially after 564 career wins between the three of them.

But that’s life in the SEC, the meanest, nastiest, most competitive league in college football. It’s win or be fired in this league, even when you’ve won 145 games or more, as all three of those guys did. Richt was fired at Georgia because going 10-3 every year wasn’t good enough, Spurrier quit in midseason when he knew he wasn’t the right guy for the job anymore, and Pinkel retired to deal with health issues, though this last SEC season, with only one league win just like South Carolina, had to be pretty sickening, too.

So as we head into 2016, there are sure to be some coaching hot seats in the SEC. Let’s take a look at who’s the most secure and who needs to be worried about their futures if things go wrong next fall. Our trouble meter says anyone at 35 percent at worse better be careful about how their 2016 goes.

It’s amazing, really, that in a league filled with great coaches, that there’s only one guy out of 14 who can feel completely comfortable. Here’s the rankings:

  1. Nick Saban, Alabama: Sitting on blocks of ice, inside an igloo, encased in a freezer. That’s how ice cold Saban’s hot seat is in Tuscaloosa. When you win four national championships in seven years, you are the king.  Trouble meter: o.0001 percent.
  2. Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss: Freeze has had a lot of success in his four years at Mississippi, winning 34 games, posting a winning record in the SEC (17-15) and beating Alabama twice. He’s also proven to be a great recruiter. People in Oxford love him. But there is this: For all his success so far, he still hasn’t won the SEC West or a conference title. Falling short again next year might start to get a few people just a little bit worried. Trouble meter: 5.0 percent
  3. Jim McElwain, Florida: McElwain won the SEC East in a shocker in his first year, so he’s certainly built up plenty of good will in Gainesville already. A huge recruiting class in a few weeks will also help solidify things. The biggest concern, however, is that the Florida offense is still putrid and McElwain was brought in to fix that. A second year of really bad offense like we saw in the last half of this season, might start to raise some red flags. Trouble meter: 6.0 percent.
  4. Kirby Smart, Georgia: Smart, like Saban, also won those four national championships at Alabama and now he returns home to Athens as the head coach of the Bulldogs after a great run as Alabama’s defensive coordinator. Everyone is expecting great things out of him, and for now there’s no reason to think he won’t deliver. Still, even being an alum, there are going to be some who wonder if he’s truly head coaching material. What if they get off to a bad start, or struggle throughout the season and do worse than Richt’s three-loss average? The heat might get turned up quickly, if that happens. Trouble meter: 10.5 percent.
  5. Dan Mullen, Mississippi State: Mullen has had unprecedented success in Starkville and everyone in the State administration loves him and hopes he sticks around forever. But the problem with living in the SEC West is that you’re never more than a year away from finishing dead last in that brutal division. That could happen to the Bulldogs this year  with so much to replace, including QB legend Dak Prescott. Can’t image the MSU folks wanting to see him gone after one bad year. With Mullen, I always thought the concern might lean the other way, that he’d bail on MSU for a better, more high-profile, job  somewhere. Trouble meter: 12.0 percent
  6. Butch Jones, Tennessee: Butch Jones is probably the most interesting case study on this list. He’s got the Vols on a current six-game winning streak right now, tied for the third-longest active streak in the country. He’s also got the projected favorite in the SEC East next year, so it’s all good, right? Well, he’s only further down on the list because he’s also one huge disappointing year away from Vols Nation wondering if he’s the guy who can get them to the promised land. What if they lose four again next year? They’ll be some howling into the night from more than just Smokey. Trouble meter: 19.4 percent.
  7. Bret Bielema, Arkansas: Bielema seems to be a good fit in Fayetteville. They like him and he likes them and he’s been building on his success one year after another in his three years there. But these bad starts have been troubling. If another happens next year and then they don’t fix it late, Bielema might start to feel some heat. Unlikely, but he’s still just 18-20 overall there and 7-17 in the SEC. Yes, he inherited a mess, but UA fans expect a lot. Trouble meter: 25.0 percent.
  8. Gus Malzahn, Auburn: Auburn fans still remember Gus Malzahn taking them all the way to the national championship game in 2013 and winning that SEC title. So, yes, there are some chips from that still in play. However, Auburn was just 2-6 in the SEC West last year and they weren’t competitive much of the time. There’s starting to be some heat built up there and another really bad year might spark the fuse. Trouble meter: 35 percent.
  9. Will Muschamp, South Carolina: Muschamp is just starting in Columbia, so you’d think he would be fine for a few years. But he brings baggage with him after his four years at Florida were considered a big failure. If there’s not a quick turnaround from this year’s 3-9 season, USC faithful might think they’ve made a mistake. Trouble meter: 36.0 percent.
  10. Barry Odom, Missouri: Much like Muschamp, Odom is the new guy on campus and probably will have a little bit of a honeymoon period. But this is the SEC and many at Mizzou were completely embarrassed by the 2015 season, where they only won one league game after winning back-to-back SEC East titles. Odom’s problem having never been a head coach is that he needs to prove he can do it. If the wheels fall off, his leash might be pretty short. Troubled meter: 37.0 percent.
  11. Les Miles, LSU: Look, let’s cut to the chase here on Miles. He was damn lucky he survived the uprising in 2015. It looked for sure like he was going to be fired, only to get a last-minute reprieve when people started balking at an $18 million buyout. It’s cheaper next year, and if the Tigers still look the same and lose three or four games, you can count on Miles being gone. Don’t see them losing that many, but if he does, then bye-bye. Trouble meter: 50.1 percent.
  12. Derek Mason, Vanderbilt: The spotlight is going to be on Mason this year to see if he’s the guy who can win at Vanderbilt. Sure, there are built-in disadvantages there, but others have done it in the past. He can coach defense, and Vandy is great on that side of the ball, but improvement on offense is a must. The Commodores offense bordered on unwatchable last year. That has to change. Trouble meter: 55.0 percent.
  13. Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M: There’s no question Kevin Sumlin is on the hot seat now at Texas A&M. There’s a new athletic director coming in and he might want some changes, especially since A&M has struggled on the field the past few years. An 8-5 record there, esepcially after all the millions A&M has spent on facilities, is unacceptable. This is a critical year for Sumlin. Trouble meter: 65 percent.
  14. Mark Stoops, Kentucky: No one in the SEC has a hotter seat than Mark Stoops. The Kentucky program has certainly gotten better on his watch, but the Wildcats’ collapse in 2015 was painful, losing five of their last six games and missing out on a bowl game yet again. Stoops has to win in 2016, and by that, that means getting to a bowl game and having a winning record. If not, he probably doesn’t survive the season. Trouble meter: 75 percent.