The first game of the college football season is easily the hardest of the year to handicap, probably the hardest opening-game option in the major American sports.

Sure, the NFL is a bit the same, but you don’t have anywhere near the roster turnover in the pros that you will in college.

There will be only two rookie quarterbacks starting in the NFL this season in Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston (Florida State) and Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota (Oregon), the past two Heisman Trophy winners. There are first-year starters all over the place in college, and especially the SEC.

Plus you have guys suspended or injured, new head coaches such as Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh or Florida’s Jim McElwain, and several important coordinator changes. Perhaps none more important than Auburn defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, the former Gators head coach.

Let’s be clear here: there is no such thing as a lock against the spread. They don’t exist. If they did, I wouldn’t be writing but traveling the globe in my yacht. Tough to pick an SEC game this week as well because so many are huge favorites against cupcakes. Shoot, even Kentucky is a 17-point favorite against Louisiana Lafayette. The only SEC dog? Naturally, Vanderbilt. The Commodores are +2.5 (on BookMaker) at home against a pretty solid Western Kentucky squad.

And Vandy is my “lock” of the week.

The good news is that Vandy brought back an SEC-best 18 starters. The bad is that means most of those guys were responsible for last year’s 3-9 record. The Dores were 125th of 128 teams in total offense, 119th in scoring and 106th in scoring defense (33.3 ppg). So nowhere to go but up.

Vandy’s only three wins were at home and against non-Power 5 schools in UMass, Charleston Southern and Old Dominion. But, still, how can the Commodores be giving points at home to a Western Kentucky team from Conference USA?

The Hilltoppers, who have been an FBS school since 2007, aren’t a bad program by any means. Under first-year coach Jeff Brohm, the former Louisville quarterback, WKU was 8-5 last season. It beat a good Bowling Green team by 28 in the season opener — the Falcons visit Tennessee in Nashville on Saturday. WKU also upset unbeaten and No. 24 Marshall 67-66 in overtime to close the regular season, maybe the game of the year in college football, to end the Thundering Herd’s chances of reaching a New Year’s Six bowl.

Western Kentucky closed the season with an epic 49-48 win over MAC school Central Michigan in the first Bahamas Bowl. The Chippewas outscored WKU 34-0 in the fourth quarter, including a three-lateral, 75-yard stunner on the final play for a touchdown. Instead of accepting that miracle and kicking an extra point in overtime, CMU went for 2 and didn’t get it.

WKU brings 16 starters back and is going to score. It was seventh nationally in yards last season and sixth in points at 44.4 per game. Senior QB Brandon Doughty returns. Because he was redshirted his freshman season (2010) and because he missed most of 2011 and 2012 because of injuries, the NCAA awarded him a rare sixth year of eligibility. Doughty threw for 4,830 yards and 49 touchdowns (both No. 1 nationally) in that up-tempo offense in 2014. He had 74 completions of 20-plus yards (tops in the nation) and 31 two-minute TD drives (No. 6 in the FBS). So Vandy head coach Derek Mason, who had made himself the team’s defensive coordinator as well this offseason, has his work cut out for him.

But the Hilltoppers are terrible on defense. They allowed 220.8 rushing yards per game last season, which was 111th in the nation. They also gave up 33 touchdown passes, fourth-worst nationally. We still don’t know who Vandy’s starting QB will be as of this writing. The initial depth chart lists Johnny McCrary or Wade Freebeck at No. 1. Vanderbilt was the only FBS team to start four quarterbacks last season. McCrary started the final five games and was 78 of 152 for 985 yards passing and nine touchdowns with eight interceptions. Freebeck was one of only three true freshmen QBs to play in the SEC in 2014. He started four games and finished 34 of 72 for 376 yards with one touchdown and five interceptions.

Since becoming an FBS member, WKU is 1-7 against SEC schools. It beat Kentucky, 32-31, in 2012.

Vandy is just 1-9 in its last 10 as a home underdog but has covered six of those. I say Commodores win this outright.