Trying to handicap the SEC West isn’t easy. In 2016, it’s no different. We’ve decided to rank the division across several categories, and today’s installment focuses on X factors.

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Some of the factors studied include last year’s record in close games, the number of returning starters, special teams, turnover margin, bye week placement, key game timing, superstars, personnel changes and strength of schedule.

Here’s how we rank the SEC West based on X factors:

1. Ole Miss Rebels

Biggest positives: Superstar, key game timing

Biggest negatives: Strength of schedule, returning starters

The skinny: Ole Miss has never won the SEC West since the league went to two divisions in 1992. It’s had its chances recently – especially last year – but let it get away.

Two years in a row now, the Rebels have beaten mighty Alabama early in the season only to stumble twice later and allow the Crimson Tide back in the race. A contender again in 2016, two critical factors give the Rebs the best chance to win the division.

That would be quarterback Chad Kelly, the best returning player in the SEC and Ole Miss’ true superstar. And secondly, once again they get to play Alabama early in the year, which is huge when you consider that Alabama is once again breaking in a new quarterback and a stable full of running backs. Playing the Tide on Sept. 17 in Oxford is the best scheduling break imaginable.

It also helps having a star at the most important position, and Kelly is exactly that. He threw for more than 4,000 yards last year and could have turned pro but decided to come back for another year. He’s the preseason player of the year for sure, and it’s a huge X factor.

Things working against the Rebels? No one has a tougher September schedule than the Rebels. They open the season on Labor Day on Monday night in Orlando against Florida State. Just 12 days later it’s Alabama, and that’s a lot to get up for early. It’s very likely that Florida State and Alabama – or Alabama and Florida State – will be ranked No. 1 and No. 2 when the first polls come out. It also might hurt that the Rebels have so many starters to replace this year, with only nine returning, lowest in the SEC. Their depth is proven, but it’s always something different when you’re thrown into the starter’s role.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

Biggest positives: Turnover margin, returning starters (on defense)

Biggest negatives: Key game timing, bye week placement

The skinny: Alabama led the SEC in turnover margin last season (plus-10) and its ballhawking defense should do more of the same in 2016. They will have one of the nation’s best pass rushes and that, combined with a talented secondary at every position, should result in a lot of interceptions once opponents get behind. Jonathan Allen and Tim Williams are going to cause all sorts of problems as pass rushers and Eddie Jackson, Marlon Humphrey, Minkah Fitzpatrick will all be stars in the secondary. Look for them to lead the league in turnovers.

The schedule does the Tide no favors. Needing to replace Jake Coker at quarterback and Heisman winner Derrick Henry at running back, it sure would have helped Alabama if it didn’t have to play Ole Miss so early. That Sept. 17 date is tough, as evidenced the past two years in losses to Ole Miss.

One other schedule issue doesn’t help. Alabama traditionally has its bye week prior to the LSU game, and that’s the same this year. It might have been better to have it prior to the Tennessee game on Oct. 15. Tennessee, the heavy favorite in the SEC East that’s hoping to end its long losing streak to Alabama, will be the Tide’s seventh game in seven weeks. Fatigue might be a factor for both teams. It’s a key game in the middle of the season.

3. LSU Tigers

Biggest positives: Returning starters, superstar

Biggest negatives: Mental stability, strength of schedule

The skinny: For the past several years, LSU has had to deal with losing several juniors early to the NFL. This year, it mostly avoided it and have all sorts of starters back this year. Unofficially, 17 of the Tigers’ 22 starters are back, including several on defense that should push the Tigers to the No. 1 ranked defense in the country. That’s huge.

The biggest name back, of course, is running back Leonard Fournette. He’s the best running back in the country and should post massive numbers again this year, especially if he gets any help at all out of QB Brandon Harris and the passing game.

The negatives are the schedule and what any troubles might do to their psyche. LSU was 7-0 at one time last year, but then lost consecutive games to Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss. The order is different this year – the Ole Miss game is first – but three straight losses again might send hundreds of Tiger fans off to their local shrink. This is a very talented team, but it’s also very fragile. Watching them handle adversity might be the most interesting story line of the year.

4. Arkansas Razorbacks

Biggest positives: Personnel changes, strength of schedule

Biggest negatives: Turnover margin, returning starters

The skinny: The Razorbacks turned their season around with some big wins in the second half, and there are high hopes that things will continue to trend in the right direction in 2016. One of the biggest improvements is the arrival of former Iowa State head coach Paul Rhoads to coach the Arkansas defensive backs. This group was torched constantly and finished seventh off the bottom in all of the NCAA in passing yards allowed. Rhoads has made an immediate impact this spring with how the defensive backs play and attack their assignments. His presence alone will be a big X factor.

The schedule is also beneficial. The four nonconference games aren’t tough outside of TCU, and even that Week 2 game provides a nice opportunity for Arkansas to turn some heads.

The bad news? Arkansas committed only 11 turnovers last year and finished plus-7 on the year, but that might change on offense with a new quarterback and new running backs taking over for three-year starters Brandon Allen and Alex Collins. It’s going to be up to the defense to make up the difference.

5. Texas A&M Aggies

Biggest positives: Returning starters, superstars

Biggest negatives: Turnover margin

The skinny: Seven starters are back on defense, and that should be plenty in the second year of the John Chavis era on defense. Having a superstar like Myles Garrett is huge too, and the defensive end should have a massive year and be a top three pick in the NFL draft next year. Chavis is a coordinator with a great track record, and his second season will be interesting to watch.

The bad news was A&M struggled with turnover margin last year, finishing tied for 102nd in the nation out of 127 teams. It was one of those head-shaking statistics last year, mostly because it was so surprising. A veteran QB like Trevor Knight might help there on offense, but there’s no denying the Aggies defense needs to create turnovers and provide good field position. It remains to be seen if that can happen.

6. Auburn Tigers

Biggest positives: Key game timing

Biggest negatives: Returning starters

The skinny: Auburn has only 11 starters coming back, worst in the SEC outside of Ole Miss. That’s not good. What’s also not good is that some of the starters back really struggled in 2015 and have a lot to prove.

The positive, though, is that they have plenty of chances to prove themselves, starting right off the bat with national runner-up Clemson in the season opener. The big games (LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama) are all spread out nicely.

7. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Biggest positives: Returning starters

Biggest negatives: Schedule, (lack of) superstars

The skinny: It’s going to be interesting to see how the Bulldogs survive in the post Dak Prescott era. The three-year starter at Mississippi State led the Bulldogs to unparalleled heights, but now he’s off to the NFL. Filling the void at QB is one thing, filling that void of a key leader is another. That lack of leadership might be a huge X factor in the end, especially if the struggles start early.

What does help is that 13 starters do return, and there are some players there. Mostly, the Bulldogs have learned how to win these past few years and having a veteran coach around in Dan Mullen should ease that transition.

The schedule does them no favors either. When Tulane cancelled a game, the Bulldogs had to scramble. From Sept. 17 through Oct. 22, the Bulldogs have to play four out of five games on the road. That’s going to be tough for a team hoping to find a new identity.