Two Power 5 teams and one Group of 5 team have the opportunity to claim a second non-conference victory over an SEC foe this bowl season.

Which team is the best bet to pull it off?

Texas Tech (7-5) vs. LSU (8-3) (Las Vegas line: LSU –7)

  • SEC team beaten in 2015: Arkansas 35-24 in Week 3
  • The quick case for Texas Tech: The Red Raiders have the No. 2 scoring offense in the FBS at 46.6 points per game. LSU averages 30.7 points per game, only good enough for No. 53 in scoring offense. The Tigers might be unable to keep pace with Texas Tech in a shootout.
  • The quick case against Texas Tech: Not too long ago, LSU was the No. 2 team in the playoff committee’s poll. The Tigers can pound the rock with RB Leonard Fournette (271 carries, 1741 yards, 18 TD) and keep the Red Raiders offense off the field.

Memphis (9-3) vs. Auburn (6-6) (Las Vegas line: Auburn –2.5)

  • SEC team beaten in 2015: Ole Miss (37-24, Week 7)
  • The quick case for Memphis: After lofty preseason expectations, Auburn is disappointed to be in the Birmingham Bowl. Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has already departed for South Carolina.
  • The quick case against Memphis: After an 8-0 start, Memphis stumbled to a 9-3 finish. Auburn can slow down the UM offense with an effective ground attack.

Louisville (7-5) vs. Texas A&M (8-4) (Las Vegas line: Louisville –5)

  • SEC team beaten in 2015: Kentucky (38-24, Week 13)
  • The quick case for Louisville: In case you haven’t heard, Texas A&M’s two best quarterbacks, Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray, are transferring. With third-string freshman QB Jake Hubenak taking over, points could be hard to come by for TAMU.
  • The quick case against Louisville: If Hubenak can get the ball to wide receivers Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, Speedy Noil and Ricky Seals-Jones, the Aggies will be in business. Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett should give the Cardinals fits.

The best bet:

The oddsmakers clearly like the Cardinals’ chances, and it’s not surprising they’re down on the Aggies after a wild December in College Station where not one, but two, top quarterbacks have left the program. In terms of most likely to get a second win against the SEC, Louisville is the clear favorite. If it were my money, however, I would not bet against the Texas A&M receivers and defensive line.

If I had $100 to bet on one of these SEC foes straight up, I would put it on Memphis. Auburn will be without Muschamp and defensive backs coach Travaris Robinson while trying to prepare for QB Paxton Lynch, who’s probably the best quarterback in the nation. He’s 280 of 406 passing for 3,670 yards. He had 28 touchdowns and only three interceptions.

Memphis will be without head coach Justin Fuente, now at Virginia Tech, but with co-offensive coordinator Darrell Dickey taking over as interim coach, the offense shouldn’t miss a beat.